Demand for battery metals is already growing fast, but it’s just getting started. Like it or not, clean technologies like EVs and energy storage, and renewable energies like solar and wind, rely on finite natural resources. As demand for mineral-intensive items like lithium-ion batteries for energy storage and electric vehicles heats up along with the global clean energy transition, the production of these resources is going to need to grow along with it. But can it?
Many leading experts have worried about whether the world has enough of these non-renewable resources to make the ‘great reset’ possible without depleting these minerals and driving prices prohibitively high. In short, the worry is no longer peak oil; it’s now peak lithium. One major problem is that no one knows for sure exactly how much lithium we have. As of 2021, it was estimated that the world had 88 million tonnes of lithium resources. One-quarter of that – 22 million tonnes – is feasibly extractable. This issue is that this figure is changing all the time as we explore for more lithium and find more advanced ways to extract it.
While there has been much hand wringing about running out, some experts think that it’s far too soon to panic. In fact, the U.S. geological survey says that these kinds of resources are “relatively abundant.” And as Hannah Ritchie, a data scientist at Oxford University, explained early this year: “We keep discovering more lithium, and we get better at mining it.” Basically, she argues, worrying over lithium supply is a malthusian fallacy. Those who claim that we are running out aren’t taking technological advancement into account. If we count the lithium present in seawater, for example, we’ll have more than we could ever need – we just need the technology to extract it. And necessity, as they say, is the mother of invention.
As of 2021, it was estimated that the world had 88 million tonnes of lithium resources.One-quarter of that – 22 million tonnes – is feasibly extractable.
While the question of the supply of lithium for EV batteries is a valid one to raise, the abundant supply of lithium means it is unlikely that the world will ever run out of this vital resource.
Because lithium is not an infinite resource. In fact, according to Kipping, once EVs dominate the car market, there's about 70 years' worth of lithium until the identified global reserves are themselves depleted. After that, we'd have to turn to pulling lithium from the sea, which is a much more expensive proposition.
There just isn't a shortage of it in the earths crust. The good news as well is we only will be scaling up the mining for 20 or 30 years and after that it will be mostly getting by on recovered lithium. I note that self driving is likely to be here well before then, and maybe in the next few years.
While the world does have enough lithium to power the electric vehicle revolution, it's less a question of quantity, and more a question of accessibility. Earth has approximately 88 million tonnes of lithium, but only one-quarter is economically viable to mine as reserves.
At the end of 2021, Tesla inked a three-year lithium supply deal with top lithium producer Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460), and the Chinese company began providing products to Tesla starting in 2022. Major miner Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM) also has supply contracts in place with the EV maker.
Will cobalt supplies run out? Cobalt supplies will not run out, but there could be a shortage in the late 2020s to early 2030s, according to a 2022 study in Nature Communications. This is because demand for electric vehicles is outpacing the rate at which cobalt is mined and refined.
Statista estimates lithium's market value is forecast to increase to nearly US$19B by 2030 due to its increasingly significant importance for a variety of applications, particularly lithium-ion batteries. By the end of 2023, the global market value of lithium is expected to be US$8.2B.
In sodium-ion batteries, sodium directly replaces lithium. Not unlike lithium-ion batteries, sodium batteries contain four main components – the anode, the cathode, an electrolyte and a separator. The state of the electrolyte varies depending on the manufacturer.
Typically, it depends on battery chemistry, as demonstrated by the chart below, as well as battery size. For example, the standard Tesla Model S contains about 138 pounds, or 62.6 kilograms, of lithium. It is powered by a NCA battery, which has a weight of 1,200 pounds or 544 kilograms.
Conclusions: These results suggest that olanzapine was significantly more effective than lithium in preventing manic and mixed episode relapse/recurrence in patients acutely stabilized with olanzapine and lithium co-treatment. Both agents were comparable in preventing depression relapse/recurrence.
The world could face a shortage for lithium as demand for the metal ramps up, with some analysts forecasting that it could come as soon as 2025. Others, however, see a longer time frame before that shortfall hits. BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, was among those that predict a lithium supply deficit by 2025.
Even though the price of lithium has surged more than tenfold over the past two years, there's enough capacity to meet anticipated demand until around 2025—and potentially through 2030 if enough recycling operations come online. After that, chronic shortages are expected.
The Albemarle Silver Peak Mine in Nevada is the only operating lithium mine in the United States. However, lithium is found all over the country, including states like North Carolina and California.
Introduction: My name is Frankie Dare, I am a funny, beautiful, proud, fair, pleasant, cheerful, enthusiastic person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
We notice you're using an ad blocker
Without advertising income, we can't keep making this site awesome for you.
