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By
:
Bob Mason
Key Points:
- XRP declined by 1.13% on Friday, ending the session at $0.6209.
- Investors locked in profits, with uncertainty about the ongoing SEC v Ripple case leaving XRP trailing the broader crypto market.
- On Saturday, SEC activity, SEC v crypto case-related chatter, and BTC-spot ETF market flows need investor consideration.
In this article:
- COIN+5.82%XRP-2.14%
The Friday Overview
On Friday, XRPdeclined by 1.13%. Partially reversing a 2.60% gain from Thursday, XRP closed the session at $0.6209.
XRP bucked the broader market trend, with the total crypto market cap rising by 1.53% to $2,503 billion.
Investors locked in profits despite increasing scrutiny of SEC activity within the US crypto space.
SEC v Ripple: Uncertainty about the Outcome Remains a Headwind
There was no SEC v Ripple case-related news to consider on Friday. Another week has passed with uncertainty lingering about the likely outcome of the SEC v Ripple case.
As time passes, the chances of a settlement diminish further. The fading chances of a settlement increase the likelihood that the SEC will appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRPruling.
In October 2023, Judge Analisa Torresdeniedan SEC motion for interlocutory appeal. The SEC Motion for interlocutory appeal in August 2023 was a bid to overturn the Programmatic Sales ruling. Significantly, the SEC referred to the SEC v Terraform Labs case and the criticism from Judge Rakoff about the Programmatic Sales ruling.
Reference to the SEC v Terraform Labs case enabled Judge Torres to address the criticism within the court ruling. Judge Torres diluted the likely impact of any rulings from the Terraform Labs case on the Ripple case.
In December, Judge Rakoff ruled TerraUSD and Luna were securities.
Despite Judge Torres addressing the Terraform Labs case, uncertainty shrouds XRP. As the crypto-spot ETF market evolves, the hanging threat of an SEC appeal also limits the chances of an XRP-spot ETF.
Investors will likely have more clarity on SEC plans in the summer. Judge Torres will begin deliberating on a penalty for Ripple breaching Section 5 of the Securities Act in May. At this stage, the chances of a settlement will likely have vanished. The SEC may begin preparing an appeal that could leave XRP sidelined through H2 2024.
However, SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling hinge on the outcome of,
- Coinbase (COIN) Motion to Dismiss (MTD) all charges in the ongoing SEC v Coinbase case.
- Office of Inspector General investigation into reported crypto conflicts of interest within the SEC.
There is also the US Presidential Election to consider. A Republican Party victory could result in a new SEC Chair and a material shift in attitude toward regulating the US digital asset space.
Nonetheless, recent price action suggests investors are unwilling to bet on the outcomes of the Coinbase MTD, the OIG Investigation, or the US Presidential Election.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
XRP remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.
A breakout from the $0.6354 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the March 5 high of $0.6689. The $0.6354 resistance level rejected a return to the $0.64 handle on Thursday and Friday.
SEC v crypto case-related chatter, the OIG Investigation, and crypto-spot ETF-related news need consideration.
However, a drop below the $0.60 handle may signal a fall toward the $0.5835 support level.
The 14-day RSI reading, 58.95, indicates an XRP return to the March 5 high of $0.6692 before entering overbought territory.
4-Hourly Chart
On the 4-hourly, XRP hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.
An XRP break above the $0.6354 resistance level would bring the March 5 high of $0.6692 into play.
Conversely, a drop below the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the $0.5835 support level.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 49.71, indicates an XRP drop to the $0.5835 support level before entering oversold territory.
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About the Author
Bob Masonauthor
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.
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