Wordle players are cheating every day, mathematician says (2024)

Statistics say about 860 people a day should guess the right word on their first try. Instead, there are upwards of 4,000

Author of the article:

Chris Knight

Published Sep 28, 2023Last updated Sep 28, 20233 minute read

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Wordle players are cheating every day, mathematician says (1)

People who play Wordle, the popular word game operated by the New York Times, often have a standard opening guess to help them crack the day’s puzzle. ADIEU and AUDIO are popular, thanks to their many vowels. CRANE and DEALT use a lot of common letters. But James P. Dilger, a professor emeritus at Stony Brook University, New York, thinks there’s another common opener: CHEAT. Not the word, the action.

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In a recently submitted paper entitled “Wordle: A Microcosm of Life. Luck, Skill, Cheating, Loyalty, and Influence!” Dilger delved into the statistics behind the game. Its mechanics are simple. Players enter a five-letter word, and the Wordle website identifies any correct letters in the right place (they turn green) or correct letters in the wrong place (yellow). Wrong letters turn grey and can’t be used again. Players get six tries to guess the word before it’s revealed. It’s Scrabble meets Mastermind.

Dilger calculated the odds of guessing the correct word on the first try. Since Wordle has a database of 2,315 common five-letter words (the puzzle editors eliminated thousands of uncommon ones), the odds of getting the puzzle right on the first try should be one in 2,315, or about 0.04 per cent. But statistics show that, on average, 0.2 to 0.5 per cent of people guess right on the first try – between five and 12 times more than chance would suggest.

Put another way: Of the roughly 2 million daily Wordle players, about 860 people should be guessing the right word on their first try. If they avoid any previous daily words (and most don’t) that might rise to 1,320. And given that many players remain loyal to the same opening word, or cycle among several, that number should be even smaller. Instead, daily first-word-winners number between 4,000 and 10,000.

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“What shall we call these people?” Dilger writes. “Hmmm, ‘cheaters’ comes to mind, so that’s what I call ’em!” (Despite its impeccable math, Dilger’s paper is refreshingly free of jargon. He’s a very chatty, down-to-Earth scientist. Another quote from the paper: “Do I mean to tell you that never, not once, was the share percent of the first guess less than 0.2%? Yup!”)

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Dilger, who used three months of Wordle data from last summer, found some other interesting anomalies. For instance, he found that the number of first-word correct guesses dropped slightly over time. “Are cheaters getting bored with Wordle,” he asks, “or have they just been on summer vacation?”

He also found a spike in the use of the popular word ADIEU on Aug. 15. “A likely explanation comes from the observation that the August 15 NYT Mini Crossword clue for 6 across was ‘most popular starting guess in Wordle’ and, of course, the answer was ADIEU. This seems to have inspired about 30,000 players to abandon whatever opening strategy they had been using and follow the crowd.”

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Another ADIEU spike on Aug. 30, when the correct word was AUDIO, may have been due to people not quite cheating but going online for a hint. Googling “today’s Wordle” will bring up many sites that will tell you the correct word, but many of them will start with hints like the first letter, the number of vowels, or a cryptic definition.

Whether this constitutes cheating Dilger doesn’t say, but he does seem to have little patience with those who look up the correct word right away. “What serious Wordle player would choose NANNY as a first guess?” he grouses of the June 3 puzzle answer. “You’d be testing only two vowels and one consonant. And IGLOO? srsly?”

In his conclusions he also admits to being a regular Wordle player himself, competing against his sister and daughter. (His opening gambit is TEACH.) “We cheer each other’s successes and try to learn from our mistakes,” he writes. “Best of all, they tolerate my nerdy tendency for statistics and puns. We are baffled as to how first-word cheaters actually have fun playing, but that does not diminish our enjoyment of the game!”

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Wordle players are cheating every day, mathematician says (2024)

FAQs

What percentage of people get Wordle correct every day? ›

But statistics show that, on average, 0.2 to 0.5 per cent of people guess right on the first try – between five and 12 times more than chance would suggest. Put another way: Of the roughly 2 million daily Wordle players, about 860 people should be guessing the right word on their first try.

How many Wordle players cheat? ›

Some days it went as high as 0.5 per cent, or about 10,000 players. Previous research by Alexandra Wormley and Adam Cohen at Arizona State University showed that residents of north-eastern states such as Massachusetts and Vermont were most likely to search Wordle answers on Google.

How can you tell if someone is cheating on Wordle? ›

These were the signs:
  1. The player isn't careful to avoid opening up good positions for you. Most cheat apps simply find the highest scoring word without applying any strategy. ...
  2. They don't manage their letters well.
  3. They play several long words that I've never heard of.
Aug 22, 2022

Is Wordle Solver cheating? ›

Peeking at somebody else's screen when they're solving is cheating. Googling “Wordle answer” is cheating.

What is the most common first word in Wordle? ›

By comparison, ADIEU — the most common starting word among Wordle players — trails TRACE by about a fifth of a guess, adding up to 74 extra turns for the bot over the course of a year. In addition to reader guesses, we rely on data sources like usage frequency in The New York Times.

How well does the average person do on Wordle? ›

The US is ranked #18 in the world for Wordle, with a national average of 3.92. The American state with the best Wordle average is North Dakota (3.65). The US city with the best Wordle scores is Saint Paul, Minnesota, with an average of 3.51. Probability of guessing correctly in two tries is 6.4785%.

Has anyone guessed Wordle on the first try? ›

3. More people solve Wordle on their first guess than can be explained by chance. In the list above, we excluded first guesses that were that day's Wordle solution. That's because, about one game in every 250, a reader gets the answer right on the first try.

Does Wordle show intelligence? ›

According to Little, “retrieving words and checking if they fit the Wordle clues would involve working memory, which is the ability to keep information active, manipulate, and update information. And working memory is correlated with intelligence.”

Can you cheat on Daily Wordle? ›

Use an Online Wordle Solver

There exist several Wordle word finders that take in your current tries and give out the answers. I found one of them and tried it multiple times to succeed. All you need to do is enter your green letters in that exact order, along with the yellow and greyed-out ones.

Is it cheating to use pen and paper for Wordle? ›

You can't cheat as you are only ever playing the game with yourself. Do whatever you like. Wordle is a logic puzzle.

What is the secret to playing Wordle? ›

Start with a word that has a lot of vowels.

Some Wordle players have found success in starting with a word that has several vowels in it. “Adieu,” “audio” or “canoe,” for instance, may be good words to start with because at least three out of the five letters are vowels.

Has Wordle used the same answer twice? ›

But knowing what's gone before is important, because Wordle answers don't repeat – so you could easily be wasting guesses.

What are the odds of getting the word correct in Wordle? ›

Since there are 2,315 possible target words in Wordle, the probability that you will guess the target in exactly one try is 1/2315 = 0.000432. In fact, it doesn't matter which of the 2,315 words in the dictionary you choose to use as your initial guess since the probability of success is always 1/2315.

What percentage of people fail at Wordle? ›

Because very few people fail at a given Wordle (typically around 3%), I use the percent of people who use all six guesses, whether they win (6/6) or fail (X/6) as a proxy for a word's difficulty. This percentage varies quite a bit, suggesting that some answers are definitely harder than others.

Has anyone got Wordle on the first try? ›

3. More people solve Wordle on their first guess than can be explained by chance. In the list above, we excluded first guesses that were that day's Wordle solution. That's because, about one game in every 250, a reader gets the answer right on the first try.

What is the best 3 word start for Wordle? ›

So RATIO first, then MENDS, then LUCKY. That's it. With those three choices, you'll have slimmed down the list of possible letters to the point that figuring out the solution with your final guesses becomes significantly easier. It's not a surefire winning strategy for every day's puzzle.

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