When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (2024)

By Jack Dona · · 3 min read

Fact Checked

Advertiser disclosure

Key Points

  • The next cash rate decision is on 24 September 2024.
  • Interest rates will decrease when inflation reaches the 2% to 3% RBA target band, predicted for late 2024 or early 2025.
  • Home loan interest rates have already started to drop, including some Big Four rates.
When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (1)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains that its number one enemy is inflation. If inflation stays high, so will home loan interest rates.

But with many households on the edge of mortgage stress, more rate rises in 2024 are the last thing Australians want. So instead, let’s think long-term, optimistically.

When will interest rates finally come down?

Will home loan interest rates go down in 2024?

On 6 August 2024, after announcing yet another cash rate hold, Governor Michele Bullock told the press that the RBA doesn’t expect to make any cuts in 2024.

“I think what the Board’s feeling is that the market path at the moment is pricing in interest rate reductions by the end of this year.

“I think the Board’s feeling is that the near term, by the end of the year and the next six months, given what the Board knows at the moment and given what the forecasts are that that doesn’t align with their thinking about interest rate reductions at the moment,” said Bullock.

Unfortunately, this means mortgage rates will stay at atmospheric heights until we finally hit the RBA’s inflation goal, which is a flexible target of 2-3% per year.

Once we do, the central bank will steadily unwind the cash rate to get the economy moving again. Variable home loans will come down significantly and monthly mortgage repayments will ease, which could make servicing a mortgage easier for many Australians.

RBA cash rate cut forecasts from Westpac, NAB & CommBank (27 August 2024)

Sep 24
Dec 24
Mar 25
Jun 25
Sep 25
Dec 25
Mar 26
Jun 26
Sep 26
Dec 26
Westpac
4.35%
4.35%
4.10%
3.85%
3.60%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
NAB
4.35%
4.35%
4.35%
4.10%
3.85%
3.60%
3.35%
3.10%
3.10%
3.10%
CommBank
4.35%
4.10%
3.85%
3.60%
3.35%
3.10%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Economists at ANZ predict the RBA’s first cut will come in February 2025.

ANZ, NAB & Westpac rule out interest rate cuts in 2024 – new prediction for early 2025

For a while, ANZ was the only one of the Big Four banks predicting the RBA would hold the cash rate at 4.35% until the end of 2024. Now that NAB and Westpac have revised their forecasts to early 2025, CBA is the only hold-out still believing there could be a cut in November-December 2024.

Is the proof in the fixed-rate pudding?

Now that home loan lenders have sensed a lull in the rate-hike cycle, many have started cutting their fixed and variable rates – including some of the Big Four.

Mozo banking and rates expert, Peter Marshall, says these fixed-rate cuts could indicate the conviction the Big Four have in their interest rate predictions.

"Fixed rates are shaped by lenders’ forecasts of where interest rates are headed,” he said.

“Since these rates stay the same for the fixed rate term, and banks aim to balance the returns from loans with the cost of deposits, there’s a chance fixed rates will be higher than variable when the cash rate drops.

“Choosing a fixed rate today could be tempting, but borrowers should also consider the likelihood of upcoming rate cuts by the RBA before making their decision."

The Big Four home loans that have moved in recent weeks include NAB’s Tailored Home Loan (Fixed), Westpac’s Fixed Options Home Loan, and CBA’s Fixed Rate Home Loan (Wealth Package), variable rate Extra Home Loan, and Standard Variable Rate.

But fixed-rate cuts aren’t only coming from the Big Four. There have been a whole host of banks and home loan lenders cutting interest rates this month, including Newcastle Permanent, Great Southern Bank, Macquarie, MOVE Bank, and ME.

How can homeowners save mortgage costs?

While interest rates stay up, mortgage repayments will, too. If you’re struggling with the loan you already have, making lifestyle changes, calling your lender, and investigatingwhether to refinancecan all be good options for handling mortgage pain. The best path for you will depend on your situation.

However, if you’re hoping to buy a home despite the inflationary environment, consider thesethree ways to break into the property market– all while checking your application for theselending red flags.

Comparelow-interest rate home loansbelow.

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Last updated 14 September 2024Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*

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WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

How Initial Monthly Repayments figures are estimated

Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circ*mstances and interest rate changes.

Home loan comparisons on Mozo

Promoted

  • When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (2)

    When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (3)

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    Unloan Variable

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    Variable

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    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

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    Upfront fees
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    Ongoing fees
    $0.00
    Discharge fee
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    Extra repayments
    yes - free
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
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    Minimum borrowing amount
    $10,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
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    Type of mortgage
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    Neat Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
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    Interest rate
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    Variable

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    Initial monthly repayment
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    Competitively-priced variable rate loan. Ideal for owner occupiers and investors. No service fees to pay. Make free extra repayments and redraws. Flexible repayment schedule available.

    Interest rate
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    Upfront fees
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    Ongoing fees
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    Extra repayments
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    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    60.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $80,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $5,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Variable
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    Fixed Express Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
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    Fixed 2 years

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    Initial monthly repayment
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    Lock in a low 2 year fixed rate with the Mozo award winning Home Lender of the Year. Available for live-in borrowers with just a 10% deposit required. Free extra repayments (up to 20% in fixed period), free redraw and partial offset available. $10 monthly service fee. Aussie support centre. Fast approvals. Up to 6 free offset accounts (T&Cs apply).

    Interest rate
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    Fixed 2 years

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    Upfront fees
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    Ongoing fees
    $10.00 monthly
    Discharge fee
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    Extra repayments
    yes - up to 20% during the fixed period
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    yes - partial only
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    90.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $5,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $10,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Fixed
    Repayment types
    Principal & Interest
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    3 Year Special Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.69%p.a.

    Fixed 3 years

    Comparison rate
    6.16%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
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    This home loan is available for purchase or refinance, complete with 1, 2 or 3 year fixed rate options. Minimum 10% deposit required.

    Interest rate
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    Upfront fees
    $530
    Ongoing fees
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    Discharge fee
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    Extra repayments
    yes - free up to $10,000 p.a.
    Redraw facility
    no
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    90.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $50,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $1,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Fixed
    Repayment types
    Principal & Interest
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    3 Year Fixed Rate Home Loan Special Offer

    • Owner Occupier
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    Get repayment certainty with Police Credit Union’s 3 Year Fixed Rate Home Loan Special Offer. No annual or monthly fees to pay. Make additional repayments up to $20,000 per year. Available for first home buyers and refinancers. Member owned, but applications open to all Australians.

    Interest rate
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    Upfront fees
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    Ongoing fees
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    Extra repayments
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    Redraw facility
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    Offset account
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    Maximum loan to value ratio
    80.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $250,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    -
    Type of mortgage
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    Repayment types
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    Basic Home Loan

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    • Principal & Interest
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    Interest rate
    5.59%p.a.

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    Initial monthly repayment
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    Interest rate
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    Upfront fees
    $350
    Ongoing fees
    $0.00
    Discharge fee
    $400.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    70.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $150,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $10,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Fixed
    Repayment types
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    Repayment options
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    Offset Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <70%
    Interest rate
    5.59%p.a.

    Fixed 3 years

    Comparison rate
    6.24%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,867
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    Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Option to earn Qantas points. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

    Interest rate
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    Upfront fees
    $350
    Ongoing fees
    $248.00 yearly
    Discharge fee
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    Extra repayments
    yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    yes
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    70.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $150,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $10,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Fixed
    Repayment types
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    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about this Macquarie Offset Home Loan

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    3 Year Special Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.69%p.a.

    Fixed 3 years

    Comparison rate
    6.16%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
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    This home loan is available for purchase or refinance, complete with 1, 2 or 3 year fixed rate options. Minimum 10% deposit required.

    Interest rate
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    Upfront fees
    $530
    Ongoing fees
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    Discharge fee
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    Extra repayments
    yes - free up to $10,000 p.a.
    Redraw facility
    no
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    90.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $50,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $1,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Fixed
    Repayment types
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    Flex Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    5.79%p.a.

    Fixed 5 years

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    Initial monthly repayment
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    Interest rate
    5.79%p.a.

    Fixed 5 years

    Comparison rate
    6.20%p.a.
    Upfront fees
    $250
    Ongoing fees
    $250.00 yearly
    Discharge fee
    $300.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - free
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    yes
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    60.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    -
    Maximum borrowing amount
    -
    Type of mortgage
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    Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    5.90%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
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    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

    Interest rate
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    Variable

    Comparison rate
    5.90%p.a.
    Upfront fees
    $0
    Ongoing fees
    $0.00
    Discharge fee
    $0.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - free
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    80.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $10,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $10,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Variable
    Repayment types
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    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about this Unloan Unloan Variable

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  • When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (15)

    When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (16)

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    Simple Home Loan Variable

    • Owner-Occupied
    • Principal and Interest
    • LVR<60%
    Interest rate
    5.99%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    5.99%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
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    Enjoy a low variable rate with no application, ongoing or monthly fees to pay. Access your money via internet banking at any time with free redraws. Make additional repayments at any time. Available for owner occupied, investment and interest only repayments.

    Interest rate
    5.99%p.a.

    Variable

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    5.99%p.a.
    Upfront fees
    $0
    Ongoing fees
    $0.00
    Discharge fee
    $175.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - free
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    60.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $150,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $3,500,000
    Type of mortgage
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    Repayment types
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  • When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (17)

    When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (18)

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    Fixed Express Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.99%p.a.

    Fixed 2 years

    Comparison rate
    6.14%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Lock in a low 2 year fixed rate with the Mozo award winning Home Lender of the Year. Available for live-in borrowers with just a 10% deposit required. Free extra repayments (up to 20% in fixed period), free redraw and partial offset available. $10 monthly service fee. Aussie support centre. Fast approvals. Up to 6 free offset accounts (T&Cs apply).

    Interest rate
    5.99%p.a.

    Fixed 2 years

    Comparison rate
    6.14%p.a.
    Upfront fees
    $134
    Ongoing fees
    $10.00 monthly
    Discharge fee
    $350.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - up to 20% during the fixed period
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    yes - partial only
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    90.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $5,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $10,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Fixed
    Repayment types
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  • When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (19)

    Neat Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.09%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    6.11%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
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    Competitively-priced variable rate loan. Ideal for owner occupiers and investors. No service fees to pay. Make free extra repayments and redraws. Flexible repayment schedule available.

    Interest rate
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    Variable

    Comparison rate
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    Upfront fees
    $250
    Ongoing fees
    $0.00
    Discharge fee
    $300.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - free
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    60.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $80,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $5,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Variable
    Repayment types
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    Flex Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.09%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    6.33%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
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    Competitive variable rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process. 40% deposit required.

    Interest rate
    6.09%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    6.33%p.a.
    Upfront fees
    $250
    Ongoing fees
    $250.00 yearly
    Discharge fee
    $300.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - free
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    yes
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    60.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    -
    Maximum borrowing amount
    -
    Type of mortgage
    Variable
    Repayment types
    Principal & Interest
    Availability
    Owner Occupier
    Repayment options
    Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
    Special offers
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  • When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (21)

    Basic Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    6.16%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
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    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

    Interest rate
    6.14%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    6.16%p.a.
    Upfront fees
    $350
    Ongoing fees
    $0.00
    Discharge fee
    $400.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - free
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    no
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    60.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $150,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $10,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Variable
    Repayment types
    Principal & Interest
    Availability
    Owner Occupier
    Repayment options
    Monthly
    Special offers
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    Offset Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    6.39%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.

    Interest rate
    6.14%p.a.

    Variable

    Comparison rate
    6.39%p.a.
    Upfront fees
    $350
    Ongoing fees
    $248.00 yearly
    Discharge fee
    $400.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - free
    Redraw facility
    yes - free
    Offset account
    yes
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    60.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $150,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    $10,000,000
    Type of mortgage
    Variable
    Repayment types
    Principal & Interest
    Availability
    Owner Occupier
    Repayment options
    Monthly
    Special offers
    -

    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about this Macquarie Offset Home Loan

    Go to site

  • When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (23)

    Fixed Rate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <80% LVR
    Interest rate
    6.54%p.a.

    Fixed 2 years

    Comparison rate
    7.10%p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,174

    Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.

    Interest rate
    6.54%p.a.

    Fixed 2 years

    Comparison rate
    7.10%p.a.
    Upfront fees
    $160
    Ongoing fees
    $0.00
    Discharge fee
    $160.00
    Extra repayments
    yes - free up to to lesser of 5% of original fixed loan amount, or $5,000 each year
    Redraw facility
    no
    Offset account
    Optional - $10 per month - 1 year fixed term only
    Maximum loan to value ratio
    80.00%
    Minimum borrowing amount
    $20,000
    Maximum borrowing amount
    -
    Type of mortgage
    Fixed
    Repayment types
    Principal & Interest
    Availability
    Owner Occupier
    Repayment options
    Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
    Special offers
    $3,000 cashback for eligible First Home Buyers borrowing $250k+, $2,000 cashback when you refinance loans of $250k+, <80% LVR, settle within 180 days for first home buyers, 120 days for refinances. Excludes refinances from ANZ, ANZ Plus and Suncorp.

    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about this ANZ Fixed Rate

    When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (24)
    When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (25)

    Interested in an ANZ home loan? Lendi specialists can help you refinance your home loan.

    Compare 25+ lenders with our trusted partner, Lendi.

    Talk to one of their experienced home loan specialists by answering a few questions online.

    I want to refinance

When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (26)

Need help with refinancing?

You might have questions that need personal answers. We’ve teamed up with the mortgage brokers at Lendi to get you the answers you need, and a home loan deal you deserve.

Learn more

Want to speak to someone about refinancing?

If you've not found the right product here then we can put you in touch with Lendi.

What you'll get:
  • Advice from a fully accredited home loan expert
  • Help matching your needs with 25+ lenders
  • Someone to negotiate rates with lenders on your behalf
  • Guidance - every step of the way

Give Lendi a few details and start a conversation

Want to speak to someone about refinancing?

Our partner Lendi can help with that. All they need is a few details to get started.

Want to speak to someone about refinancing?

If you've not found the right product here then we can put you in touch with Lendi.

What you'll get:
  • Advice from a fully accredited home loan expert
  • Help matching your needs with 25+ lenders
  • Someone to negotiate rates with lenders on your behalf
  • Guidance - every step of the way

Give Lendi a few details and start a conversation

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*WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

**Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circ*mstances and interest rate changes.

^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards

Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.

While we pride ourselves on covering a wide range of products, we don't cover every product in the market. If you decide to apply for a product through our website, you will be dealing directly with the provider of that product and not with Mozo.

When will interest rates finally come down? Expert forecasts explained (2024)
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