What is probability and why is it important? (2024)

Read this article describing what statistics and probability are.

In general terms, probability is “a mathematical tool used to study randomness”, model and explain chance events (Illowsky & Dean, 2013, p.6).

It is the numerical representation of how likely an event is to happen. This can be anything from how likely it is to rain on a certain day to how likely it is to roll a six on a dice.

The two key pieces of language involved in probability are randomness and the likelihood/chance.

1. Randomness is the lack of a predictable order and pattern in events.

2. The likelihood or chance is the measure of how probable it is an event will happen/won’t happen (e.g., impossible, possible, certain, likely, most likely, unlikely, slim chance).

The study of probability is important, because it it is likely that you will encounter aspects of probability every day. Additionally, it is another essential concept to be an effective citizen, as it builds our understanding of chance and variation in life.

Probability is an important part of any mathematical education. It is a part of mathematics that enriches the subject as a whole by its interactions with other uses of mathematics and mathematical modelling (GAISE Report, 2016).

Understanding probability factors like chance and risk can be essential to a student’s ability to function in society. Some examples include understanding the probability of catching COVID-19 with or without the vaccines, comprehending what a “once in a 100 year event” actually means, and knowing the risks of gambling.

Probability also allows students to develop a range of skills, including the development of computational and mental arithmetic skills. These skills will have more meaning when applied to a context where the students are directly involved in the process, like handling data when throwing dice and completing calculations with these numbers.

Probability can develop students’ critical thinking skills. Interpreting collected data and making probability statements that are undertaken to reach conclusions encourage and allow students to develop these higher order thinking skills, which are also transferable to other areas of the wider curriculum within schools.

GAISE College Report ASA Revision Committee. (2016). Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education College Report 2016. American Statistical Association. https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/GAISE/GaiseCollege_Full.pdf
Illowsky, D. & Dean, B. (2013). Introductory statistics. Openstax. https://d3bxy9euw4e147.cloudfront.net/oscms-prodcms/media/documents/IntroductoryStatistics-OP_LXn0jei.pdf

© University of Southern Queensland

What is probability and why is it important? (2024)

FAQs

What is probability and why is it important? ›

Probability provides information about the likelihood that something will happen. Meteorologists, for instance, use weather patterns to predict the probability of rain. In epidemiology, probability theory is used to understand the relationship between exposures and the risk of health effects.

What is probability and its importance? ›

The probability is the measure of the likelihood of an event to happen. It measures the certainty of the event. The formula for probability is given by; P(E) = Number of Favourable Outcomes/Number of total outcomes.

Why is probability important to us? ›

The probability is important as it enables us to calculate the possible results of a random experiment statistically. It is vital in predicting the behaviour of variables influenced by chance.

Why is probability important in real life? ›

Probability plays a vital role in the day to day life. In the weather forecast, sports and gaming strategies, buying or selling insurance, online shopping, and online games, determining blood groups, and analyzing political strategies.

What is the best Definition of probability? ›

a(1) : the chance that a given event will occur. (2) : the ratio of the number of outcomes in an exhaustive set of equally likely outcomes that produce a given event to the total number of possible outcomes.

What is probability in simple words? ›

Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a random event. The value is expressed from zero to one. Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict how likely events are to happen.

What is the main idea of probability? ›

A probability is a number that reflects the chance or likelihood that a particular event will occur. Probabilities can be expressed as proportions that range from 0 to 1, and they can also be expressed as percentages ranging from 0% to 100%.

What is the main aim of probability? ›

Probability is the likelihood of an event to occur. It is impossible to guess some events whether will occur with 100% certainty and hence the use of the theory of probability is important. It tells us the certainty of an event to occur and how and why it will occur.

What is the best use of probability? ›

We may be sure or not sure of the results of an event. In such cases, we say that there is a probability of this event to occur or not occur. Probability generally has great applications in games, in business to make predictions, and also it has extensive applications in this new area of artificial intelligence.

How does probability help? ›

Plan ahead and forecast potential outcomes with probability. Probability evaluates possible outcomes of events. It is the likelihood of something occurring. It can be used to forecast sales growth, predict the success of a marketing strategy, adjust staffing needs, and so much more.

What careers use probability? ›

Overview of Careers in Statistics and Probability
  • Mathematician. Using existing and newly-developed principles, mathematicians can develop statistical models to analyze data. ...
  • Economist. ...
  • Market Research Analyst. ...
  • Budget Analyst. ...
  • Atmospheric Scientist/Meteorologist. ...
  • Statistician. ...
  • Operations Research Analyst. ...
  • Financial Analyst.

Why probability is a good method? ›

Things won't always turn out for the best, but we have to try to increase the chances that they will. To do so, we use our knowledge—or at least our best estimates—of the probabilities of future events to guide our decisions.

Why is the probability of success? ›

The probability of success is a concept closely related to conditional power and predictive power. Conditional power is the probability of observing statistical significance given the observed data assuming the treatment effect parameter equals a specific value.

What is the easiest way to understand probability? ›

In math, the probabilities that are easiest to calculate involve experiments where there are a number of distinct and equally likely outcomes. In such cases, calculating the probability of events is easy! You simply count the number of favorable outcomes and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes.

What is the role of probability? ›

Probability provides information about the likelihood that something will happen. Meteorologists, for instance, use weather patterns to predict the probability of rain. In epidemiology, probability theory is used to understand the relationship between exposures and the risk of health effects.

What is the basic theory of probability? ›

probability theory, a branch of mathematics concerned with the analysis of random phenomena. The outcome of a random event cannot be determined before it occurs, but it may be any one of several possible outcomes. The actual outcome is considered to be determined by chance.

What is probability and significance? ›

Significance is usually denoted by a p-value, or probability value. Statistical significance is arbitrary – it depends on the threshold, or alpha value, chosen by the researcher. The most common threshold is p < 0.05, which means that the data is likely to occur less than 5% of the time under the null hypothesis.

What is probability easy way to explain? ›

Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to happen. Probability is represented as a fraction and always lies between 0 and 1. An event can be defined as a subset of sample space.

Why is probability an important factor? ›

The likelihood or chance is the measure of how probable it is an event will happen/won't happen (e.g., impossible, possible, certain, likely, most likely, unlikely, slim chance). The study of probability is important, because it it is likely that you will encounter aspects of probability every day.

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