What Is Bitcoin Halving? How Does It Affect Bitcoin Price? (2024)

About every four years, the amount of new bitcoins created per block is halved. This scarcity measure limits supply and can push the BTC price up.

What Is Bitcoin Halving? How Does It Affect Bitcoin Price? (1)

Bitcoin has many characteristics embedded in its code, which is programmed to allot a total maximum supply of 21 million BTC. Two of Bitcoin’s most important aspects are its fixed supply and decreasing block rewards, which occur about every four years.

This periodic decrease in the rate of bitcoins issued into circulation is called ‘Bitcoin halving’. Back in 2012, the reward was 25 bitcoins per block, and in 2016, it decreased to 12.5 bitcoins per block. As of September 2023, miners are rewarded 6.25 bitcoins per block mined.

Get all the details on the biggest cryptocurrency by market cap in our in-depth article What Is Bitcoin?

How Is Bitcoin Halving Correlated to Bitcoin Mining?

For every 210,000 blocks, the number of newly issued bitcoins is cut in half. This translates to roughly every four years, depending on how quickly blocks are mined, which averages about every 10 minutes.

Blocks are added to the Bitcoin blockchain by a process called mining, which typically involves custom-made computers called Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) — computers designed to hash compute as quickly as possible.

Mining is used to permanently add transactions to the blockchain without the interference of any centralised entity. Miners are incentivised to secure the network by spending resources (mining), and are subsequently rewarded with bitcoins.

Bitcoin Halving Dates

There have been three Bitcoin halvings so far: the first one occurred in November 2012, when the block reward was decreased from 50 bitcoins per block to 25 bitcoins per block; the second halving dates back to July 2016, when the reward per block was reduced again, from 25 bitcoins per block to 12.5 per block; the third halving happened in May 2020, when block rewards decreased from 12.5 bitcoins per block to 6.25 bitcoins per block.

What Is Bitcoin Halving? How Does It Affect Bitcoin Price? (2)

When Is the Next Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin has seen an increasing hashrate since its conception, meaning block times have come to average less than 10 minutes now. As these fluctuate, it is hard to predict the exact date of the next halving.

A future halving is estimated to occur in 2024, where the reward will be reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per block mined; the fifth halving is estimated to occur in 2028, with the reward halved to 1.5625 bitcoins per block mined.

Does Halving Affect Bitcoin’s Price?

BTC price can be affected by the halving as:

  • Rewards are halved, which promotes healthy and sustainable growth of the network. By reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are generated, the halving ensures that Bitcoin’s supply remains limited and finite.
  • The inflation rate of Bitcoin decreases after a halving, meaning the supply of new coins entering the market is reduced.

This topic is often debated amongst market analysts and participants alike. Some believe the halving will cause a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin, as the reduced inflation rate will lead to higher demand and a corresponding increase in value. Others argue that the halving is already priced into the market, and the event will not affect the cryptocurrency’s price.

Check out Crypto.com’s new BTC to USD Converter.

What Is Bitcoin Halving? How Does It Affect Bitcoin Price? (3)

Historically, halvings have generally been preceded by bear markets and followed by bull markets.

Ultimately, the price of Bitcoin is determined by a variety of factors. These include market demand and sentiment, plus regulatory developments. It is difficult to predict how the halving will impact its value.

Learn about the Four Phases of the Crypto Market Cycle.

What Does the Bitcoin White Paper Say About the ‘Halving’?

Interestingly, Bitcoin halving is not mentioned directly in the Bitcoin white paper, as the term ‘halving’ is not used. However, the paper does discuss the limited supply of bitcoins and the mechanisms in place to control the creation of new coins.

In particular, the white paper states that the capped number of bitcoins to be created is 21 million, and the rate at which new coins are created or mined will be halved approximately every four years. This is the mechanism that underlies the halving process.

In section 6 of the Bitcoin white paper, the philosophy behind the idea is described:

“The steady addition of a constant amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expending resources to add gold to circulation. In our case, it is CPU time and electricity that is expended.”

And section 4 of the Bitcoin white paper explains the Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism:

“The proof-of-work also solves the problem of determining representation in majority decision making.

If the majority were based on one-IP-address-one-vote, it could be subverted by anyone able to allocate many IPs. Proof-of-work is essentially one-CPU-one-vote. The majority decision is represented by the longest chain, which has the greatest proof-of-work effort invested in it.”

Additionally:

“To compensate for increasing hardware speed and varying interest in running nodes over time, the proof-of-work difficulty is determined by a moving average targeting an average number of blocks per hour. If they’re generated too fast, the difficulty increases.”

Final Words: Should BTC Holders Worry About Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event aimed at lowering inflation by reducing the amount of new bitcoins created. The impact on value can vary and is influenced by many factors.

As such, it is important to understand the halving as one of many factors that may have an influence on the value of Bitcoin, while also taking into account other factors.

How does Bitcoin work behind the scenes? Find out in this deep dive on the technical details of Bitcoin.

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Due Diligence and Do Your Own Research

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Past performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future performance. The value of digital assets can increase or decrease, and you could lose all or a substantial amount of your purchase price. When assessing a digital asset, it’s essential for you to do your own research and due diligence to make the best possible judgement, as any purchases shall be your sole responsibility.

What Is Bitcoin Halving? How Does It Affect Bitcoin Price? (2024)

FAQs

What Is Bitcoin Halving? How Does It Affect Bitcoin Price? ›

The Bitcoin Halving takes place about every four years and reduces the block reward by 50%. This lowers the supply of bitcoins entering the market, which increases scarcity and can act to raise its price if market conditions remain the same.

What will the Bitcoin halving do to the price? ›

Of course, the halving has some effects on the Bitcoin ecosystem. For example, the reduced reward for miners means that Bitcoin's price will need to rise over a longer time frame for miners to continue mining profitably.

How does the halving affect crypto? ›

By reducing the rate at which new coins are entered into circulation, halving slows the time that Bitcoin takes to reach its capped supply of 21 million tokens. So far, around 19 million tokens have been released.

What happens when Bitcoin stops halving? ›

The block reward helps miners cover the high costs of mining. Every four years however, the algorithm cuts the block subsidy in half in an event called the halving. This process will continue until around the year 2140, when the flow of new bitcoin will drop from one satoshi per block to zero.

Will bitcoin mining be profitable after halving? ›

Price, profitability, and perception are valuable aspects. It is important for companies dedicated to Bitcoin mining to know that the halving affects the less productive or less efficient miners. Although the production cost is the same, the reward is lower, which causes profitability to be very high.

How long after halving does Bitcoin peak? ›

Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at Kraken, said Bitcoin prices historically peak 12 months to 18 months after a halving event but noted that the cryptocurrency already hit an all-time high less than two months ago, “which is earlier than in prior market cycles.”

Will Bitcoin halving affect other coins? ›

A halving is different from a typical price fluctuation, because, for the first time in four years, the catalyst is Bitcoin's design itself. Altcoins (alternative coins), essentially any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, are set to receive a knock-on effect from the halving.

How many bitcoins are left to mine? ›

According to the Bitcoin protocol, the maximum number of bitcoins that can be created is 21 million. As of March 2023, approximately 18.9 million bitcoins have been mined, meaning there are around 2.1 million bitcoins left to be mined.

How much is Bitcoin expected to grow in 2024? ›

Our most recent Bitcoin price forecast indicates that its value will increase by 11.6% and reach $76,091 by June 04, 2024.

Is Bitcoin halving good for dogecoin? ›

While Dogecoin (DOGE) price fell during the past month, historical data indicates that it could start its rally to new all-time highs around seven months after the Bitcoin halving.

Should I buy Bitcoin before or after halving? ›

Although data insinuates that it isn't too late to buy Bitcoin and it remains an attractive investment before the April halving, investors must remember that Bitcoin rewards those who hold and weather the post-halving declines.

How high can Bitcoin realistically go? ›

Ark's research suggests the cryptocurrency could soar 2,115% to almost $1.5 million by 2030 -- but Wood herself came out with an even more bullish estimate recently, saying Bitcoin could rocket 5,453% to $3.8 million.

Why is bitcoin crashing after halving? ›

The biggest impact of the halving will be felt by mining companies: “As unprofitable bitcoin miners exit the bitcoin network, we anticipate a significant drop in the hashrate and consolidation among bitcoin miners with a highest share for publicly-listed bitcoin miners,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

Does Bitcoin price go up after halving? ›

The Bitcoin Halving takes place about every four years and reduces the block reward by 50%. This lowers the supply of bitcoins entering the market, which increases scarcity and can act to raise its price if market conditions remain the same.

Do bitcoin fees go up after halving? ›

The day after the halving, the average Bitcoin transaction fee surged to an all-time high, according to Kaiko Research, one that's more than seven times the rate a day prior and double the previous record.

What is the expected price of bitcoin in 2024? ›

Our most recent Bitcoin price forecast indicates that its value will increase by 11.6% and reach $76,091 by June 04, 2024.

How much does it cost to mine bitcoin after halving? ›

10 Years of Decentralizing the Future

Bitcoin miners may shift towards AI due to the potential for higher revenue, CoinShares said. The average bitcoin production cost post-halving is about $53,000.

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