What is a recession and what does it mean for you? (2024)

While Canada’s economy is more resilient than some feared, a recession in Canada is still possible in the next 12 months. During times of economic uncertainty, it’s normal to worry. The Bank of Canada’sSurvey of Consumer Expectations – Second Quarter of 2024report shows Canadians are concerned about:

• Inflation and the high cost of living.
• Elevated interest rates, which continue to cause stress about their financial situations, including mortgage payments.
• Economic activity in Canada, with most expecting it to decline, and most being uncertain about where the economy is heading.

Here’s how Canadians are reacting to their concerns:

• Reducing spending.
• Paying off debt.
• Moving savings to accounts with higher interest rates.
• Increasing household income.

Whether you’re worried or not, it’s important to understand what a recession is, and what you can expect.

What is a recession?

Economists use various criteria to figure out whether an economy is in recession. The most common is if economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP),* shrinks for:

• six months, or
• two consecutive three-month periods.

During a recession, there’s a rise in unemployment. Fewer jobs mean that people are earning less and spending less money. It also means that businesses are growing at a slower pace or may even be shrinking.

What causes a recession?

There are many factors that can contribute to a decline in GDP, including the following:

• Higher interest rates, which make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money to fund growth.
• Lower consumer confidence, caused by negative events (i.e. war, pandemic), which leads consumers to delay spending.
• Crises in the financial system, such as a drop in the stock market.
• International trade wars.
• Government spending cuts.
• Sudden disruptions in the supply or demand of essential commodities, such as oil, which leads to a drastic increase in their price.

What’s the difference between a recession and a depression?

A depression is more severe than a recession and lasts much longer. It results in lower consumer spending and, compared to a recession, often includes:

• a higher level of unemployment,
• a much lower rate of industrial production and
• a higher rate of business failures (bankruptcies).

Recessions on average last for about 11 months, while a depression can last for several years. For example, the Great Depression of 1929 lasted for three and a half years. But the Great Recession of 2008 lasted about 18 months.

How does a recession affect you?

A recession can affect people of all income groups. You may have already experienced a job loss. Or, you may now be earning less money due to high inflation. With financial markets volatility, you may have also experienced a temporary decline in your investment portfolio.

As a result, you may have difficulty paying your bills or saving money. This may cause you to go into debt to make necessary payments.

It’s important to remember that recessions are typically short-term and that the economy eventually recovers.

How can you keep your finances on track during a recession?

While you can’t avoid the impact of a recession, you can help protect your finances during one. Here are some tips to help you weather a recession:

1. Use an emergency fund rather than credit

You can’t always predict a financial emergency. But you can prepare for one by having an emergency fund to help you through difficult times.

Do you currently have an emergency fund that can cover some of your living expenses? You can use it to help you through a temporary loss of income. It’s a much better alternative to high-interest credit cards, which will only sink you deeper into debt. When you borrow from your own emergency fund, you have only yourself to pay back.

If you don’t already have an emergency fund, it’s never too late to start building one. You can build your emergency fund in small steps. First, take a realistic look at your current expenses. Then you can figure out how much you can afford to set aside now. Maybe you can only put away $5 or $10 a week right now. Not to worry: that’s a good start. Simply choose a set amount per week or month that you’re comfortable setting aside. Then have that amount automatically transferred from your chequing account into a savings plan. Remember to review the transfer arrangement regularly and increase the amount whenever you can.

2. Create a budget or review your current budget

Creating a budget is a great way to:

• figure out where your money’s going right now and
• make sure it’s going to the right places.

If you already have a budget, now’s a good time to review it.

Start by making a list of your monthly expenses. Then, ask yourself if there’s anything you don’t need. For example, when reviewing your budget, you may find that you have some unwanted subscriptions you can cancel. You can then redirect some or all of that money to your emergency fund.

Next, ask yourself if there are any living expenses you don’t have to pay right away. Many banks, creditors and mortgage providers offer options to help clients get through lean times. Give them a call to see if they offer any support programs or flexible payment options that can help you through this recession.

3. Stay invested – even when the stock market goes down

When financial markets decline drastically, you may feel anxious or panicked. You may also feel tempted to sell your investments or make significant changes to your portfolio. But it’s usually best not to act on such emotional impulses.

If you already have adiversified portfolio,* it’s probably best to stay invested. There’s a good reason for staying the course. Historically, financial markets tend to recover from large declines and then go on to produce further gains. This is what happened after the SARS crisis in2003, the Swine Flu in 2009, the Ebola virus in 2014 and the Zika virus in 2016.¹

In addition, staying invested allows you to capture gains as markets recover. If you sell when markets decline, you’re:

• locking in a loss from selling at a low value and
• missing out on gains as markets rebound or recover.

4. Get professional help from an advisor

Are you worried about the possible impact of a recession on your savings? Talking to a professional may help to ease your concerns.

Now’s a good time to talk to your advisor if you have one, or tofind an advisorif you don't. An advisor can help you:

• make well-informed financial decisions,
• find ways to reduce your debt and save more money,
• create an effective investment plan and build a well-diversified investment portfolio that meets your short- and long-term goals,
• revise your planas your financial situation and needs change,
• provide you with confidence in times of uncertainty, and
• help you to avoid making poor, emotionally-driven decisions that could hurt your long-term financial goals.

* Definition of terms:

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year.

Market volatilityrefers to dramatic swings or ups and downs in the markets.

A diversified portfolioincludes various assets like stocks, fixed income, and commodities. These assets may react differently to the same economic event. The value of one may rise while the value of another may fall. This lowers your overall risk because no matter what happens in the market, some assets will still have gains.