If you don’t believe the 2024 presidential campaign can get any more bizarre or anxiety-inducing, just wait.
70 percent of Americans have indicated that they don’t want the major presidential candidates they now appear stuck with. A substantial percent of Democratic voters and a majority of Republican voters don’t want President Biden to run because of his age and perceived cognitive issues. A substantial number of Republicans and a majority of Democrats don’t want former President Trump to run because of his perceived legal issues.
Next — still in media-enforced stealth-mode, but coming up fast in the outside lane — is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent. Beyond Kennedy off in the distance is the specterofa “No Labels” candidate finally materializing.
As one steps back to study that framework, a natural question starts to come into focus — one that has been asked of me by several major players from both parties over the last few weeks: What if no presidential candidate wins the required 270 Electoral College votes?
If you don’t think that can happen, you haven’t been paying close attention to this eccentric campaign season. Such a nightmare scenario seems almost preordained at this point.
In preparation of that looming possibility, here is the answer, as outlined in the National Archives:
If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress. The House of Representatives elects the President from the three (3) Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote and it is up to the individual States to determine how to vote. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no State delegation in the House and cannot vote). A candidate must receive at least 26 votes (a majority of the States) to be elected. The Senate elects the Vice President from the two (2) Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator casts one vote for Vice President. (Since the District of Columbia is has no Senators and is not represented in the vote). A candidate must receive at least 51 votes (a majority of Senators) to be elected. If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House.
For the moment, let’s assume Biden, Trump and Kennedy are “the three presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes.” Suddenly, the magic number is reduced from 270 electoral votes down to 26 state votes. More than that, a state is no longer duty-bound to vote for the candidate who won that state in the general election.
For the sake of argument, let’s say that in the final stretch of the campaign, RFK Jr. starts gaining in popularity with more independents, minority voters and Republicans and Democrats dissatisfied with — or disgusted by — Biden and Trump. Because of that, let’s further assume that he wins a respectable number of Electoral College votes.
“Impossible,” you say, because independent candidates generally tend to flame out towards the end of a campaign as voters flock back to their traditional party on Election Day. True, but there are noteworthy exceptions.
Back in 1992, independent candidate Ross Perot got almost 20 percent of the vote. While he won no electoral votes, his impressive showing knocked Bill Clinton’s popular vote total down to just 43 percent.
As for the last third-party candidate to actually win an Electoral College vote, it was George Wallace in 1968, who won five Southern states and 46 electoral votes as the standard-bearer for the American Independent Party against Republican Richard Nixon and Democrat Hubert Humphrey. Many believe that Wallace took more voters from Nixon than Humphrey, so much so that while Nixon easily bested Humphrey in the Electoral College301 to 191, he won the popular vote by less than 1 percent.
All that to say that a strong third-party candidate can easily upend conventional wisdom while creating political intrigue. Could Robert F. Kennedy Jr. match or exceed Wallace’s Electoral College vote total? And if he managed to pull off such a feat, what would that do to the final electoral vote count?
After the 2020 election, Biden was declared the winner of the Electoral College with 306 votes to Trump’s 232. Many expect the contest between Biden and Trump to be even closer in 2024. If it is and Kennedy can manage to win a solid number of electoral votes, then what?
No one gets to 270 and the House of Representatives, voting on behalf of the 50 states, is entrusted to pick the next president. What could possibly go wrong with that constitutionally mandated solution?
Buckle up.
Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.
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