What Are the Forces Behind Interest Rates and What Causes Them to Rise? (2024)

An interest rate is the cost of borrowing money. Or, on the other side of the coin, it is the compensation for the service and risk of lending money. Inboth cases, it keeps the economy moving byencouragingpeople to borrow, to lend, and to spend.But prevailing interest rates are always changing, and different types of loans offer differentinterest rates. If you are a lender, a borrower, or both, it's important you understand the reasons for these changes and differences.​ They also have a heavy effect on the rare metals trade, including silver stocks.

Key Takeaways

  • An interest rate is the cost of borrowing money.
  • Interest provides a certain compensation for bearing risk.
  • Interest rate levels are a factor in the supply and demand of credit.
  • The interest rate for each different type of loan depends on the credit risk, time, tax considerations, and convertibility of the particular loan.

Lenders and Borrowers

The moneylender takes a risk that the borrower may not pay back the loan. Thus, interest provides a certain compensation for bearing risk. Coupled with the risk of default is the risk of inflation. When you lend money now, the prices of goods and services may go up by the time you are paid back, so your money's original purchasing power would decrease. Thus, interest protects against future rises in inflation. A lender such as a bank uses the interest to process account costs as well.

Borrowers pay interest because they must pay a price for gaining the ability to spend now, instead of having to wait years to save up enough money. For example, a person or family may take out a mortgage for a house for which they cannot presently pay in full, but the loan allows them to become homeowners now instead of far into the future.

Businesses also borrow for future profit. They may borrow now to buy equipment so they can begin earning those revenues today. Banks borrow to increase their activities, whether lending or investing, and pay interest to clients for this service.

Interest can thus be considered a cost for one entity and income for another. It canrepresent the lost opportunity oropportunity costof keeping your money as cash under your mattress as opposed to lending it. And if you borrow money, the interest you have to pay could beless than the cost of forgoing the opportunity ofhavingaccess to the money in the present.

How Interest Rates are Determined

Supply and Demand

Interest rate levels are a factor in the supply and demand of credit: an increase in the demand for money or credit will raise interest rates, while a decrease in the demand for credit will decrease them. Conversely, an increase in the supply of credit will reduce interest rates while a decrease in the supply of credit will increase them.

An increase in the amount of money made available to borrowers increases the supply of credit. For example, when you open a bank account, you are lending money to the bank. Depending on the kind of account you open (a certificate of deposit will render a higher interest rate than a checking account, with which you can access the funds at any time), the bank can use that money for its business and investment activities. In other words, the bank can lend out that money to other customers. The more banks can lend, the more credit is available to the economy. And as the supply of credit increases, the price of borrowing (interest) decreases.

Credit available to the economy decreases as borrowers decide to defer the repayment of their loans. For instance, when you choose to postponepaying this month's credit card bill until next month or even later, you are not only increasing the amount of interest you will have to pay but also decreasing the amount of credit available in the market. This, in turn, will increase the interest rates in the economy.

Inflation

Inflation will also affect interest rate levels. The higher the inflation rate, the more interest rates are likely to rise. This occurs because lenders will demand higher interest rates as compensation for the decrease in purchasing power of the money they are paid in the future.

Government

The government has a say in how interest rates are affected. The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) often makes announcements about how monetary policy will affect interest rates.

The federal funds rate, or the rate that institutions charge each other for extremely short-term loans, affects the interest rate that banks set on the money they lend. Thatrate then eventually trickles down into other short-term lending rates. The Fed influences these rates with "open market transactions," which is the buying or selling of previously issued U.S. securities. When the government buys more securities, banks are injected with more money than they can use for lending, and the interest rates decrease. When the government sells securities, money from the banks is drained for the transaction, rendering fewer funds at the banks' disposal for lending, forcing a rise in interest rates.

Interest keeps the economy moving byencouragingpeople to borrow, to lend—and to spend.

Types of Loans

Of the factors detailed above, supply and demand are, as we implied earlier, the primary forces behind interest rate levels. The interest rate for each different type of loan, however, depends on the credit risk, time, tax considerations (particularly in the U.S.), and convertibility of the particular loan.

Risk refers to the likelihood of the loan being repaid. A greater chance that the loan will not be repaid leads to higher interest rate levels. If, however, the loan is "secured," meaning there is some sort of collateral that the lender will acquire in case the loan is not paid back (i.e., such as a car or a house), the rate of interest will probably be lower. This is because the risk factor is accounted for by the collateral.

For government-issued debt securities, there is, of course, minimal risk because the borrower is the government. For this reason, and because the interest is tax-free, the rate on treasury securities tends to be relatively low.

Time is also a factor of risk. Long-term loans have a greater chance of not being repaid because there is more time for the adversity that leads to default. Also, the face value of a long-term loan, compared to that of a short-term loan, is more vulnerable to the effects of inflation. Therefore, the longer the borrower has to repay the loan, the more interest the lender should receive.

Finally, some loans that can be converted back into money quickly will have little if any loss on the principal loaned out. These loans usually carry relatively lower interest rates.

The Bottom Line

As interest rates are a significant factor of the income you can earn by lending money, of bond pricing and of the amount you will have to pay to borrow money, it is important that you understand how prevailing interest rates change: primarily by the forces of supply and demand, which are also affected by inflation and monetary policy. Of course, when you are deciding whether to invest in a debt security, it is important to understand how its characteristics determine what kind of interest rate you can receive.

Correction—Jan. 31, 2023: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated credit available to the economy decreases as lenders decide to defer the repayment of their loans. In actuality, credit available to the economy decreases when borrowers decide to defer their loan repayment.

What Are the Forces Behind Interest Rates and What Causes Them to Rise? (2024)

FAQs

What Are the Forces Behind Interest Rates and What Causes Them to Rise? ›

Interest rates respond and change due to economic growth, fiscal, and monetary policy. Let's consider the biggest factor that influences interest rates - the availability of funds and the cost of funds for the bank. As the cost of funds increases, lenders will need to raise interest rates to compensate.

What causes interest rates to rise? ›

The higher the inflation rate, the more interest rates are likely to rise. This occurs because lenders will demand higher interest rates as compensation for the decrease in purchasing power of the money they are paid in the future.

What forces cause interest rates to change? ›

Interest rates fluctuate in response to various factors. Primarily, they are influenced by supply and demand. When there's a strong demand for money or credit, lending institutions can increase the cost of borrowing. When demand weakens, they can reduce interest rates, making it cheaper to take on loans.

What would cause the Fed to raise interest rates? ›

The path of future Fed rate hikes depends on whether progress has been made in bringing inflation down. The Fed considers a wide range of economic data points, including CPI and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation, as well as more specific price data.

What are the forces that influence interest rate changes in the market? ›

Three key market forces that impact interest rates are the supply and demand for loans, investor sentiment and risk appetite, and government bond yields.

What causes the interest rate effect? ›

The intuition behind the interest rate effect is that when the price level decreases, you need less money in your pocket to buy stuff. The less money you need to keep on hand to buy stuff, the more money you are going to keep in a bank. Banks pay interest to try to lure people to deposit their money in banks.

What causes inflation rates to rise? ›

If the money supply grows too big relative to the size of an economy, the unit value of the currency diminishes; in other words, its purchasing power falls and prices rise.

When did the Fed start raising rates? ›

In March 2022, the Fed made its first interest rate increase since 2018, raising rates from 0% by 0.25% to a level of 0.25–0.50% Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. In July 2023, the Fed made its final 0.25% increase, bringing rates to 5.25–5.50%. The Fed funds rate has not been cut since then.

Why do interest rates affect inflation? ›

By rising interest rates when inflation is high, central banks influence both the amount and cost of loans that people and companies can get. They influence financing conditions and the level of economic activity in the EU which in turn affect inflation.

Who benefits from high interest rates? ›

With profit margins that actually expand as rates climb, entities like banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms, and money managers generally benefit from higher interest rates.

What are the key factors affecting interest rates? ›

Factors that affect interest rates are economic strength, inflation, government policy, supply and demand, credit risk, and loan period. There are two standard terms when discussing interest rates. The APR is the interest you will be charged when you borrow. The APY is the interest you get when you save.

What are the four factors that contribute to differences in interest rates? ›

Top 12 Factors that Determine Interest Rate
  • Credit Score. The higher your credit score, the lower the rate.
  • Credit History. ...
  • Employment Type and Income. ...
  • Loan Size. ...
  • Loan-to-Value (LTV) ...
  • Loan Type. ...
  • Length of Term. ...
  • Payment Frequency.
Mar 4, 2024

How could a rise in the interest rate cause a recession? ›

In other words, when the Fed increases interest rates, it reduces demand for goods and services, which could result in companies hiring less or laying off their workers and potentially lead to a much-feared recession.

Why raise interest rates when inflation is high? ›

When inflation is too high, the Federal Reserve typically raises interest rates to slow the economy and bring inflation down. When inflation is too low, the Federal Reserve typically lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy and move inflation higher. Want to keep reading? Learn the basics of inflation.

Do interest rates go up during recession? ›

Do Interest Rates Rise or Fall in a Recession? Interest rates usually fall during a recession. Historically, the economy typically grows until interest rates are hiked to cool down price inflation and the soaring cost of living. Often, this results in a recession and a return to low interest rates to stimulate growth.

Who benefits from higher interest rates? ›

As interest rates rise, the interest income from loans typically increases faster than the interest paid on deposits, leading to wider profit margins. Additionally, higher interest rates can boost the earnings of insurance companies and investment firms, as they often hold large portfolios of interest-sensitive assets.

Why is APR so high right now? ›

A series of rate hikes

The Federal Reserve has taken up its target interest rate several times since March 2022. Beginning with a 0.25 percent increase in March 2022, the first rate increase in nearly four years, the Fed followed up by increasing it 0.50 percent at its May 2022 meeting.

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