USDA ERS - Market Outlook (2024)

FAQs

What is the corn market outlook for 2024? ›

2024 and 2025 Projected Corn and Soybean Prices. In its June World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected the 2024 corn price at $4.40 per bushel.

Median total farm household income is forecast to have increased to $99,523 in 2023. That is a nominal increase of 4.3 percent (a 0.7-percent increase after inflation) between 2022 and 2023. In 2024, median total farm household income is forecast to decrease to $99,445.

The 2024/25 U.S. feed grain supply forecast is 449.9 million metric tons this month, up 2.1 million metric tons from the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast. An increase in corn planted and harvested acreage is the main driver of the increase in supply.

The December 2025 futures contract is trading near $4.60, indicating that cash corn prices at harvest in 2025 could be in the low $4.30 range. A similar story exists for soybeans. The 2024 projected price for soybeans is $11.55 per bushel, well below projected prices in 2022 ($14.33) and 2023 ($13.76).

The forecast market year average price for 2024/25 is $4.40, forty cents lower than the $4.80 market year average price expected for 2023/24 and more than $2 lower than the $6.54 price for 2022/23.

A weaker labor market and a resulting easing of wage pressures should slow price increases for services unrelated to shelter. We foresee core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, ending 2024 in a range of 2.1%–2.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Lower cash receipts, lower direct government payments and higher production expenses all play a role in declining farm incomes.

Net cash farm income for calendar year 2024 is forecast at $121.7 billion (down $38.7 billion or 24.1 percent relative to 2023, in nominal dollars). Net farm income is forecast at $116.1 billion (down $39.8 billion or 25.5 percent).

The regulations in 9 CFR 317.309(h) and 381.409(h) specify that certain nutrient values are not out of compliance, unless they are more than 20% above the labeled value. That rule applies to the labeled values for calories, sugars, total fat, saturated fat, cholesterol, or sodium.

Another complaint is that USDA's trend corn yields have been exceeding previously observed records, and the 2024 trend of 181 bushels per acre follows suit, sitting some 3.7 bpa above last year's all-time high.

What is the price outlook for wheat in 2024? ›

With U.S. wheat ending stocks forecast to build for the second consecutive season and larger corn supplies expected, the season-average farm price for wheat is forecast at $6.00 per bushel, down $1.10 from the previous season and well below the record of $8.83 in 2022/23.

The Federal Reserve announced at its June 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that it would maintain the overnight federal funds rate at the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

The U.S. soybean supply for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, 8 percent higher than MY 2023/24 but down 20.0 million bushels from last month's forecast.

As we came out of COVID/Russia-Ukraine-induced highs, prices have fallen rapidly. The season average price for corn in 2022/23 was $6.54/bu and is projected to decrease to $4.80 in 2023/24 and $4.40 in 2024/25.

For more than two years, however, soybean futures prices have been on a firm downward trajectory, declining from a near-10-year high in May 2022 of around $17.30 per bushel to below $11.00 per bushel by mid-July 2024. This trend is partly reflective of the wider bearish sentiment enveloping the grain complex this year.

Another complaint is that USDA's trend corn yields have been exceeding previously observed records, and the 2024 trend of 181 bushels per acre follows suit, sitting some 3.7 bpa above last year's all-time high.

The season average price for corn in 2022/23 was $6.54/bu and is projected to decrease to $4.80 in 2023/24 and $4.40 in 2024/25.

For 2024, USDA anticipates a decrease in net farm income, moving from $155 billion in 2023 to $116 billion in 2024, a decrease of 25.5%. Much of the forecasted decline in 2024 net farm income is tied to lower crop and livestock cash receipts and continued increases in production costs.

The correct answer is a: the quantity supplied of corn to be rising. Change in the price of a good and the quantity supplied are directly related to each other; it is called the law of supply. Therefore, the quantity of corn supplied rises with the increase in the price of corn.