US P&C Insurance Trends to Watch in 2024 (2024)

FAQs

What is the P&C market outlook for 2024? ›

We continue to forecast US P&C sector ROE at 9.5% in 2024 and 10.0% in 2025, near industry cost of capital of 10-11% and up from 3.4% in 2023. 1Q24 results confirmed that the industry is on a favorable trajectory, with ROE near 14%.

Favorable first-quarter economic and underwriting results for property/casualty insurance align with projections that the industry will see a small underwriting loss in 2024 and achieve profitability in 2025, according to the latest forecasting report from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman.

Experts predict a 1% to 10% increase in general liability insurance premiums in 2024. Fortunately, you're not in this alone. We're here to help you understand the current insurance market and implement risk management strategies to protect your organization.

Embedded Insurance Gaining More Momentum

Insurance carriers will seek opportunities to find new and innovative areas to launch embedded insurance products. Hence, there will be a greater number of partnerships between product and insurance companies in the coming years to result in greater market penetration.

As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.

A slowdown in inflation will bolster retail volume growth by 6.7% in US dollar terms and 2% in volume terms in 2024.

Personal lines set to drive growth again in 2024; commercial lines growth to be led by property. We forecast total direct premiums written (DPW) growth of 7.0% in 2024 – an upward revision from 5.5%, driven by momentum in personal auto – and 4.5% in 2025 after nearly 10% growth in 2022 and 2023.

Global recession outlook

There is now a 35% chance that the global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2024, and a 45% chance that it will do so by the end of 2025.

The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot

Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization.

Why are general liability rates increasing? ›

What's driving the news: One of the main reasons rate increases have persisted is so-called “social inflation.” Social inflation describes how insurers' claims costs increase above general economic inflation.

We forecast P&C direct premiums written (DPW) growth of 8.0% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2025, after a close-to 10% annual gain between 2021 and 2023. Both personal auto and homeowners' premiums grew by more than 13% in 2023, driving overall industry growth of 9.3% (see Table 1).

There probably won't be a housing recession in 2024 based on current expectations, as limited inventory is likely to push prices up further. Once rates drop, more buyers should re-enter the market as well.

A weaker labor market and a resulting easing of wage pressures should slow price increases for services unrelated to shelter. We foresee core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, ending 2024 in a range of 2.1%–2.4% on a year-over-year basis.

The headline CPI fell to 3% by June 2024. In June 2024, core CPI rose 3.3% YoY and headline CPI rose 3% YoY. Core services rose 3%, core goods fell 0.4%, food rose 0.3% and energy rose 0.1%.

The insurance industry has a promising future, but it must remain agile and innovative in their approach. By embracing new technologies and meeting the changing needs of policyholders, insurance companies can remain competitive and relevant in a rapidly evolving landscape.