UK House Prices September 2024 – NerdWallet UK (2024)

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What is happening to house prices in the UK?

House prices in the UK have hit their highest level for two years. Average property prices increased to £292,505 last month, a high not seen since August 2022, according to Halifax. Prices were up 4.3% compared with a year earlier, and 0.3% higher month-on-month. The bank said the uplift in prices was due to a growing confidence among homebuyers, spurred by the recent drop in mortgage rates.

Last week, Nationwide data suggested UK prices had slipped lower in August, the first month-on-month drop recorded by the lender since April. The property portal Rightmove also recently reported that home sellers had been trimming asking prices to attract buyers.

However, for much of the rest of the year, property prices have been gradually rising month on month. Official Land Registry figures show average UK house prices increased for the fifth month in a row in June to £287,924.

Land Registry data lags behind other indices but tends to be the most trusted indicator of how house prices are changing in the UK.

Average UK property prices

The average house price is £305,370 in England, £215,518 in Wales, and £192,488 in Scotland, according to Land Registry data for June 2024. In the second quarter of 2024, the average property price in Northern Ireland was £185,025.

On a regional basis, the highest average house prices in England in June 2024 were in London (£523,134) and the South East (£382,522). The lowest average house prices were in the North East (£164,886).

Latest house price changes across the UK

The direction and pace of house price changes differ across the UK. Average house prices in England in June 2024 increased by 0.6% compared with the previous month, while in Wales prices increased by 0.3%. In Scotland, prices remained unchanged month-on-month, according to the latest Land Registry data.

On an annual basis, average house prices are 2.4% higher in England and 1.8% higher in Wales compared with a year earlier. Property prices in Scotland are 4.3% higher year-on-year. In Northern Ireland, monthly prices were 3.6% higher and annual prices were 6.4% higher in Q2 (April-June) 2024.

Source: HM Land Registry. Figures for England, Scotland and Wales are for June 2024. Figures for Northern Ireland are for Q2 2024.

How property prices are changing where you live

Average house prices are higher in all regions of England compared to a year ago. The largest annual increase has been seen in Yorkshire and the Humber, where property values are 4.7% higher than 12 months earlier. The next biggest annual rise is in the North East (+4.2%).

London saw the slowest annual growth in property prices in June of 0.6%, but values were 1.2% higher on a monthly basis. The largest month-on-month rise was in Yorkshire and the Humber (+2.7%). However, house prices fell 1.0% compared with the previous month in the South West, and by 0.5% in the East Midlands.

Are house prices falling?

The latest house price data from Nationwide shows property prices fell in August. However, this is the first monthly decrease seen since April, and property values continued to climb higher on an annual basis, being 2.4% higher compared with a year earlier. For the same month, Halifax data shows house prices increased 0.3% in August, and were 4.3% higher on an annual basis.

Property prices, and the direction and pace of price movements, change all the time. However, there are signs that the underlying trend of steadily rising property prices that has generally been the norm in recent years may have resumed.

UK house price forecasts 2024 and beyond

Predictions as to what will happen to UK house prices in 2024 are mixed. Some forecasts suggest property prices will rise in 2024, while others predict they will fall.

Expert UK housing market predictions

Richard Donnell, Executive Director, Zoopla

“While measures of market activity are higher and price inflation is positive, it’s important that sellers remain realistic on pricing, especially if they are serious about moving home. The continued growth in the supply of homes for sale is boosting choice for buyers. This will keep UK house price inflation in check into 2025. Buyers remain price-sensitive as their purchasing power has been eroded by higher mortgage rates. This is slowly being offset by faster income growth but there is further to go to fully repair affordability.”

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages, Halifax

“Recent price rises build on a largely positive summer for the UK housing market. Prospective homebuyers are feeling more confident thanks to easing interest rates. Such has been the resilience of house prices that the average property is now just £1,000 shy of the record high set in June 2022. While this is welcome news for existing homeowners, affordability remains a significant challenge for many potential buyers still adjusting to higher mortgage costs. However, with market activity picking up and the possibility of further interest rate reductions to come, we expect house prices to continue their modest growth through the remainder of this year.”

Simon Rubinsohn, Chief Economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)

“The new government’s focus on boosting housing development alongside the recent quarter point base rate cut does appear to have shifted the mood music in the sales market, with projections for both near and medium activity picking up. Inevitably, significant challenges lie ahead in delivering on the ambitions around planning reform and it is far from clear that the Bank of England will follow the August move with further easing over the coming months, but, even so, the policy mix is becoming more supportive for the sector.”

Tim Bannister, Director of Property Science at Rightmove

“The first Bank Rate cut since 2020 has sparked a welcome late summer boost in buyer activity. While mortgage rates aren’t yet substantially lower since the rate cut, the fact that the long-hoped-for first cut has finally arrived, and mortgage rates are heading downwards, is positive for home-mover sentiment. As the summer holiday season comes to an end, the conditions are there for a more active autumn market. The reaction from home-movers to what is hopefully only the first of several rate cuts over the next year or two, combined with other positive data and trends, has led us to raise our price prediction for the year. We now expect new seller prices to rise marginally by 1% over the whole of 2024. This is a relatively small revision from our original prediction of a 1% fall in prices over the year, since we didn’t initially forecast anything more drastic than a slight drop in prices this year.”

» MORE: Where is the cheapest place to rent in the UK?

Is now a good time to buy a house?

Financially, the best time to buy a house is when mortgage rates and house prices are both low. In reality, the chances of this happening, and being able to time a purchase right, are slim. So instead, it’s important to find a property and mortgage you can afford without overstretching.

While mortgage rates have dropped since the middle of last year, they remain significantly higher than through most of the 2010s and early 2020s. Simply put, mortgages aren’t as affordable as a few years ago.

If your funds are tight, waiting for rates to come down may be your only option. The good news is that many experts suggest mortgage rates could carry on falling over the coming months. Earlier in the year, some commentators felt that house prices could fall this year, which would help improve affordability further. However, in recent months, some of these forecasts have been revised and now predict property prices will rise.

Ultimately, it’s impossible to predict with any certainty what will happen to house prices and the cost of mortgages.

Because of this, whether now is a good time to buy a property or not largely depends on your circ*mstances, priorities and outlook. Getting mortgage advice can help you figure out the numbers. But the ultimate decision to buy now or wait will rest with you.

» MORE: Check current mortgage rates