Trump's Trade War Cost U.S. More Than $3 Billion A Month, Economists Say (2024)

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Trump's Trade War Cost U.S. More Than $3 Billion A Month, Economists Say (1)

President Donald Trump’s trade war cost American businesses and consumers $3 billion a month last year in higher prices, according to a study by top economists.

The U.S. “experienced substantial increases in the prices of ... goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and complete pass-through of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods,” noted the study issued Saturday by economists from the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, and Princeton and Columbia University. “Overall ... we find that the full incidence of the tariff falls on domestic consumers.”

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The trade war also cost companies an additional $1.4 billion a month in efficiency losses as they changed the way they do business to adapt to the tariffs, such as cobbling together new supply chains, according to the study.

Author David Weinstein of Columbia University told Bloomberg: “This is kind of the worst-case scenario in terms of consumers. It’s pretty unclear that this trade war is a net win for the economy at this point.’’

Trump has said negotiators are very close to an agreement with China and a deal could be wrapped up later this month.

The president, who has insisted that “trade wars are good and easy to win,” has bragged repeatedly that even as trade negotiations have dragged on, China is paying the U.S. “billions of dollars in tariffs.”

Trade negotiators have just returned from China where the meetings on Trade were very productive. Now at meetings with me at Mar-a-Lago giving the details. In the meantime, Billions of Dollars are being paid to the United States by China in the form of Trade Tariffs!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 17, 2019

But tariffs are paid by importers ― not by exporting companies or the nations where they are located. Exporters may cut their costs to remain competitive in the marketplace, but those cuts don’t go to the U.S. government.

Companies in America purchasing imported products pay the tariffs, and most if not all of those costs are typically passed onto U.S. consumers who buy the products.

Tariffs are paid for by US consumers.

— David Rothschild (@DavMicRot) February 17, 2019

These duties are paid not by China but by importers such as ford or walmart, who either swallow the costs or pass them on to consumers -- in other words, us consumers end up paying them

— WangDafei (@DafeiWang) February 17, 2019

Again, I think you're missing the fact that those dollars are passed onto consumers in the form of higher prices. It's another tax on the people. You do realize that, right? Not surprised that so many are dumbed down enough to give this message a like.

— Off Grid Nation (@PrepperCarolina) February 18, 2019

Another paper by economists and academics published Sunday concluded that the main victims of Trump’s trade war have been farmers and blue-collar workers in regions that supported Trump in the presidential election.

“Workers in very Republican counties bore the brunt of the costs of the trade war, in part because retaliations disproportionately targeted agricultural sectors, and in part because U.S. tariffs raised the costs of inputs used by these counties,’’ the authors wrote.

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Trump's Trade War Cost U.S. More Than $3 Billion A Month, Economists Say (2024)

FAQs

Did Trump's tariffs help or hurt the economy? ›

Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.

Was Trump's trade war with China successful? ›

By the end of the Trump presidency, the trade war was widely characterized as a failure for the United States. His successor, Joe Biden, however, has kept the tariffs in place. In early 2024, the Trump presidential campaign was mulling a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

Do tariffs cause inflation? ›

A recent study found that a broad implementation of tariffs would raise the inflation rate by about ¾ percentage point relative to the current baseline (Zandi, Le Cerda, and Begley 2024 and correspondence with author).

Which president opened trade with China? ›

President Bill Clinton in 2000 pushed Congress to approve the U.S.-China trade agreement and China's accession to the WTO, saying that more trade with China would advance America's economic interests: "Economically, this agreement is the equivalent of a one-way street.

Did tariffs cause the Great Depression? ›

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act did not cause the Great Depression; however, it worsened conditions during that time. The Act increased tariffs, which further stressed struggling nations—including those in debt to the U.S.—and caused other nations to retaliate by imposing their own tariffs.

Who benefits from tariffs? ›

The importing countries usually benefit from a tariff, as they are the ones imposing the tariff and collecting the revenue. Domestic businesses also benefit from tariffs because it makes their goods cheaper than imported goods, hence driving up the demand for their products.

Who actually won the US China trade war? ›

Economists routinely say that no one wins a trade war because costs rise on all sides. If that's the case, the U.S., which started the fight and eventually slapped steep tariffs on three-quarters of everything China sold to the U.S. to force changes in Chinese economic policy, lost by not winning.

Who benefited from the US China trade war? ›

In the first wave of discriminatory protectionism unleashed by Trump, the scope of protectionism was limited to direct imports from China. As a result, as documented by Aaditya Mattoo and others at the World Bank, third countries like Vietnam benefited significantly.

What would happen if the US stopped trading with China? ›

The costs to the U.S. economy if we were to prohibit domestic companies (impacting companies such as GE, Honeywell, Collins, and Parker Aerospace) from engaging with COMAC would be significant: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that losing access to China's aviation market would translate into a loss of $38 ...

What would happen if all tariffs were removed? ›

Tariff removal would threaten these gains and could result in job losses, plant closures, cancellations of planned investments, and further destabilization of the domestic manufacturing base, which would increase domestic dependence on unstable import supply chains.

Where does the money go from a tariff? ›

In simplest terms, a tariff is a tax. It adds to the cost borne by consumers of imported goods and is one of several trade policies that a country can enact. Tariffs are paid to the customs authority of the country imposing the tariff.

What is the import tax from China to the USA? ›

Import Tariff China

If your shipment's gross weight or volumetric weight is less than 10 kilograms per cubic meters, you will be charged 5 percent customs duty on the CIF value plus transport and insurance costs.

What tariffs did Trump place on China? ›

Effects on China-US trade

Trump announced on August 1, 2019, that he would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports beginning September 1; four days later the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced that China was halting imports of all American agricultural goods.

Has the U.S. ever fought China? ›

During the Second Opium War, American and Qing forces briefly clashed in November 1856 at the Battle of the Barrier Forts, the first instance of military engagement between the two. After China's defeat in the Second Opium War, the Xianfeng Emperor fled Beijing.

Which president started free trade? ›

The impetus for a North American free trade zone began with U.S. president Ronald Reagan, who made the idea part of his campaign when he announced his candidacy for the presidency in November 1979.

Who did the tariff help? ›

High tariffs were a means not only of protecting infant industries, but of generating revenue for the federal government. They were also a mainstay of the Republican Party, which dominated the Washington political scene after the Civil War.

How does reducing tariffs help the economy? ›

There is no question, however, that tariff reduction creates many economic benefits. Proponents of the WTO have emphasized its positive results by pointing to reductions in the cost of living, increases in income, and improvements in efficiency.

Who gets the money from tariffs? ›

In simplest terms, a tariff is a tax. It adds to the cost borne by consumers of imported goods and is one of several trade policies that a country can enact. Tariffs are paid to the customs authority of the country imposing the tariff.

Which are two negatives of using tariffs and quotas as trade barriers? ›

The disadvantages of tariffs are as follows: Raise the price of the good or service because of increased taxes. May lead to shortages by discouraging one country from exporting goods or services to another. Increase friction between two countries, hurting their long-term relationship.

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