Traders Eye Friday’s Jobs Report in Light Session (2024)

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Traders Eye Friday’s Jobs Report in Light Session (1)

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Thursday is shaping up to be one of the quieter sessions of the week as traders digest the events of the first few days and positions themselves ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report.

It’s been a very lively start to the week, with Gold having plummeted through the $1,300 support on Tuesday before stabilising temporarily around $1,265, while the pound has hit a new 31-year low and looks on course to extend losses in the coming days and weeks. In both these cases, what we’ve seen so far looks like a dead cat bounce which would suggest further losses are on the horizon. Both are trading marginally in the red again today, but look to be holding off until after tomorrow’s jobs report before making their next moves.

The US dollar has once again been the stand out performer among the majors today, edging higher again as traders continue to price in a rate hike in December following another string of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policy makers. It will be interesting to see whether this can be sustained into the end of the week as a poor NFP number tomorrow will likely once again case doubt on whether the Fed will pursue further tightening this year. The ADP number on Wednesday – seen as a rough estimate of the NFP – blew no one away but wasn’t quite bad enough to hugely affect the market implied probability of a hike in December. We currently stand at 60% which is very high given that the market has doubted the Fed – as it turns out, correctly – throughout the course of 2016, a year in which the Fed had intended to hike four times but has yet to do so once.

Source – CME Group FedWatch Tool

Oil is pushing for another day of gains, having been on a great run since the start of last week on the back of the OPEC output deal and numerous inventory drawdowns. Even these gains now appear to be running on empty having rallied to the highest level in almost four months on what is effectively a loose deal that may never be carried out as intended and some drawdowns in what is still an oversupplied market.

EUR/USD – Euro Edges Lower, Markets Eye Key US Job Numbers

As for today, focus will be broadly on tomorrow’s jobs data from the US in the absence of many scheduled economic events today. Of the little data we will get today, the one that stands out is initial jobless claims but with the number having rarely deviated from current levels for most of this year, I’m not expecting much from the release.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Traders Eye Friday’s Jobs Report in Light Session (5)

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

Traders Eye Friday’s Jobs Report in Light Session (7)

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ADP, Brent Crude, Fed, federal reserve, GBP, Gold, Initial Jobless Claims, nfp, non farm payrolls, Oil, opec, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, pound, Sterling, us, us dollar, US Jobs Report, usd, WTI Crude

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Traders Eye Friday’s Jobs Report in Light Session (2024)

FAQs

What did the jobs report say? ›

New jobs report shows slow but steady growth

U.S. employers added 206,000 jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, but there are signs of a slowdown as unemployment ticked up to 4.1 percent.

Did the unemployment rate go up? ›

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June, the highest level since October 2021, signaling the labor market is continuing to cool.

How is the US job market now? ›

Solid but slower job growth

The most notable June job gains occurred in healthcare, construction, and transportation and warehousing. The unemployment rate was below 4% from February of 2022 through April 2024, but has drifted higher, above 4%, since. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as of July 31, 2024.

Is the job market slow? ›

The latest wage data shows that a steady downward trend remains firmly in place. This also adds to evidence that America's job market is experiencing a broad slowdown, whether you look at monthly job gains, unemployment or wage growth.

How many jobs were lost in January 2024? ›

fyi counted 28,970 jobs gone during the first 31 days of 2024. Altogether, that's more than 40,000 Americans laid off in January alone. Based on a new Resume Builder survey, four in 10 companies said they are likely to have layoffs in 2024.

What did job say at the end? ›

At the end of God's invitations to dialogue, Job comes up short in his first response: Then Job answered the Lord and said,“Behold, I am insignificant; what can I reply to You? I lay my hand on my mouth. Once I have spoken, and I will not answer; Even twice, and I will add nothing more.”

What would increase the unemployment rate? ›

There are many reasons for unemployment. These include recessions, depressions, technological improvements, job outsourcing, and voluntarily leaving one job to find another.

When were unemployment rates the highest? ›

The unemployment rate has varied from as low as 1% during World War I to as high as 25% during the Great Depression. More recently, it reached notable peaks of 10.8% in November 1982 and 14.7% in April 2020.

What is the July unemployment rate? ›

However, the government's monthly nonfarm payrolls report last Friday showed job gains slowed markedly in July and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, alarming markets at that point that the labor market may be deteriorating at a pace that would call for strong action from the Fed.

What is the best job in USA now? ›

Get Matched!
  • Nurse Practitioner. #1 in 100 Best Jobs. ...
  • Financial Manager. #2 in 100 Best Jobs. ...
  • Software Developer. #3 in 100 Best Jobs. ...
  • IT Manager. #4 in 100 Best Jobs. ...
  • Physician Assistant. #5 in 100 Best Jobs. ...
  • Medical and Health Services Manager. #6 in 100 Best Jobs. ...
  • Information Security Analyst. #7 in 100 Best Jobs. ...
  • Data Scientist.

Is there a job shortage in us? ›

US Labor Shortage Rates

In the US, talent scarcity is on the rise. As of 2024, US labor shortage currently sits at 70%, five percentage points below the global average. That means that 7 in 10 employers are unable to find suitable employees for their job vacancies.

What is causing the labor shortage? ›

Pre-pandemic levels of the labor force participation rate were much higher than today, with a major chunk of the workforce now retired. Whether forced into early retirement by being furloughed or laid off or doing so willingly; Covid-19 has greatly impacted the participation and recovery of older workers.

What jobs are not in demand right now? ›

Fastest declining occupations
2022 National Employment Matrix title2022 National Employment Matrix codeEmployment change, percent, 2022–32
Watch and clock repairers49-9064-29.8
Roof bolters, mining47-5043-28.5
Cutters and trimmers, hand51-9031-28.2
Telephone operators43-2021-26.6
28 more rows
Apr 17, 2024

Are we in a hiring crisis? ›

Is there currently a labor shortage in the US? Job openings outnumbered unemployed people in the US from May 2021 to December 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. In December 2023, there were 0.7 unemployed people per job opening.

Is it harder now to get a job? ›

But active job seekers say the labor market feels more difficult than ever. A 2023 survey from staffing agency Insight Global found that recently unemployed full-time workers had applied to an average of 30 jobs, only to receive an average of four callbacks or responses.

What is the job report for April 2024? ›

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April 2024, the slowest jobs gain in six months and below market expectations. The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.8% to 3.9%.

What is the employment report for May 2024? ›

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs in May 2024, a much better-than-expected report as it easily beat consensus expectations. However, there were modest downward revisions to job growth of 15,000 combined for the prior two months.

What is the US unemployment rate right now? ›

US Unemployment Rate is at 4.30%, compared to 4.10% last month and 3.50% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 5.69%.

How does a jobs report affect the stock market? ›

Slowing job growth may cause the Fed to reduce interest rates, which historically correlates with higher stock prices. On the other hand, job growth and low unemployment may spur the Fed to pump the brakes on economic growth by increasing interest rates, which typically depresses stocks.

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