What is Tesla Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2024-09-14), Tesla's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $28.10. The stock price of Tesla is $230.29. Therefore, Tesla's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 8.2.
The historical rank and industry rank for Tesla's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Tesla was 151.46. The lowest was 6.78. And the median was 18.09.
Tesla Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
The historical data trend for Tesla's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* Premium members only.
Tesla Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
Tesla Annual Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec14 | Dec15 | Dec16 | Dec17 | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | ||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -5.16 | 1.79 | 7.72 | 16.58 | 26.87 |
Tesla Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | Jun24 | |
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 20.40 | 22.35 | 26.87 | 25.91 | 28.10 |
Competitive Comparison of Tesla's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
For the Auto Manufacturers subindustry, Tesla's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Tesla's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Tesla's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Tesla's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Tesla Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Tesla's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $3,003.52.
Tesla's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | = | (Growth Multiple | * | Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) | + | Total Stockholders Equity (Jun24) | * | 0.8) | / | Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) |
= | (14.862653310476 | * | 3003.52208 | + | 66468 | * | 0.8) | / | 3481.000 | |
= | 28.10 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Tesla(NAS:TSLA) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Tesla's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF | = | Share Price | / | Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF |
= | 230.29 | / | 28.099599938351 | |
= | 8.20 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Tesla Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
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Tesla Business Description
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM »STOCK LIST »Consumer Cyclical » » Tesla Inc (NAS:TSLA) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Comparable Companies
STLA F GM LI RIVN NIO XPEV VFS LCID PSNY TSE:7203 SZSE:002594 XTER:MBG XTER:BMW XTER:VOW3 MIL:RACE TSE:7267 NSE:MARUTI XKRX:005380 HKSE:02333
Traded in Other Exchanges
TSLA:Poland TSLA:Peru TSLA:Mexico TSLA_KZ:Kazakhstan 1TSLA:Italy TL0d:UK 0R0X:UK TL0:Germany TSLACL:Chile TSLA:Canada TSLA34:Brazil TL0:Bulgaria TSLA:Austria TSLA:Argentina
Address
1 Tesla Road, Austin, TX, USA, 78725
Website
Founded in 2003 and based in Palo Alto, California, Tesla is a vertically integrated sustainable energy company that also aims to transition the world to electric mobility by making electric vehicles. The company sells solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation plus batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities. Tesla has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans and crossover SUVs. The company also plans to begin selling more affordable sedans and small SUVs, a light truck, a semi truck, and a sports car. Global deliveries in 2022 were a little over 1.3 million vehicles.
Executives
Vaibhav Taneja | officer: Chief Accounting Officer | 3500 DEER CREEK ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
Xiaotong Zhu | officer: SVP, Automotive | 1 TESLA ROAD, AUSTIN TX 78725 |
Andrew D Baglino | officer: SVP Powertrain and Energy Eng. | 3500 DEER CREEK ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538 |
Zachary Kirkhorn | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 3500 DEER CREEK ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
Kimbal Musk | director | C/O TESLA MOTORS, INC., 3500 DEER CREEK ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
Elon Musk | director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO | C/O TESLA MOTORS, INC., 3500 DEER CREEK ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
Joseph Gebbia | director | C/O AIRBNB, INC., 888 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103 |
Kathleen Wilson-thompson | director | PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599 |
Robyn M Denholm | director | 4150 NETWORK CIRCLE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054 |
Ira Matthew Ehrenpreis | director | 100 SHORELINE HWY, SUITE 282, BLDG. B, MILL VALLEY CA 94941 |
Jerome M Guillen | officer: VP Service and Sales Ops | 3500 DEER CREEK RD., PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
Antonio J. Gracias | director | C/O VALOR EQUITY PARTNERS, 200 SOUTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1020, CHICAGO IL 60604 |
Hiromichi Mizuno | director | 1-2-33-A504, KOMAZAWA, SETAGAYA, TOKYO M0 154-0012 |
Lawrence Joseph Ellison | director | C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT CORPORATION, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511 |
Stephen T Jurvetson | director | 2882 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
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