At a Glance
- Spring is still expected to be warmer than usual in the northern U.S.
- That's particularly the case from the northern Great Lakes to northern New England.
- The South should generally have a near-average spring, except the Southern Plains.
- This could lead into a hot summer in much of the country.
Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.
Spring will skew warmer than usual in much of the United States, particularly in the northern tier, and that could be followed by one of the nation's hottest summers on record.
That's according to the latest outlook released Friday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.
One of the biggest drivers to the outlook is the continued weakening of El Niño and the increasing likelihood of La Niña by summer. Long-term warming of the planet over the past several decades is also a contributor.
That said, the remaining spring months might not be quite as off-the-charts, relatively speaking, as the record-shattering winter.
"April and May may be only moderately anomalously warm, which would be notable in our new world of accelerated global warming," according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.
Month-By-Month Outlook
April to be warmer than usual for most: The month may start cooler than average, particularly over the South. But overall, April should end up warmer than usual in most of the country, except perhaps South Florida. The best chance of above-average April warmth looks to be from the northern Great Lakes to upstate New York and northern New England.
(MORE: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Advertisem*nt
More of the same in May: Our May outlook appears similar to April, except warmer along the northern tier from Washington state to the Northeast. Like April, it still looks warmer than usual from much of Texas to parts of the Desert Southwest.
Heat expands in June: Above-average warmth for the first month of summer is expected from the Southern Plains to the Midwest and Northeast. The best chance of a hotter than usual June once again lies from the northern Great Lakes to northern New England, but also in western Texas and eastern New Mexico.
Summer sneak peek looks sizzling: June could be only the start of one of the nation's hottest summers, according to Atmospheric G2. That's based on long-range forecast models, past years with a strong El Niño to La Niña transition, and climate change.
"We expect the most anomalous summer heat to extend from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes and Northeast," Crawford wrote in the outlook.
And that could peak in August, according to Crawford.
"The idea that August will be the warmest of the three summer months, relative to normal, matches the climate model output and analogs as well, adding some confidence to the idea of a back-loaded summer."
Our first complete summer outlook will be issued in mid-April.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives.
