SeasonalTrading (2024)

Description

Seasonal Trading is a strategy designed by Perry J. Kaufman in an attempt to explore seasonal patterns in stock price. The strategy analyzes monthly price action using the Monthly Seasonality study and adds simulated buy and sell orders based on the resulting values. As monthly action is taken into account, this strategy is to be used on monthly charts only.

Calculation

The price data is run through Monthly Seasonality to reveal seasonal patterns and identify the months with the highest and the lowest frequency of positive returns. The default level of high positive-return frequency is 75. For low positive-return frequency, the default level is 25. The frequency is calculated for each month over the last four years by default.

Simulated orders

Seasonal Trading adds simulated orders according to the following rules:

  • A Buy simulated order is added at the end of a month with a consistently low frequency of positive returns.
  • A Sell simulated order is added at the end of a month with a consistently high frequency of positive returns.

Input Parameters

Parameter Description
years The period for which the frequencies of positive returns for each month are to be calculated.
high frequency The minimum high-frequency level.
low frequency The maximum low-frequency level.

Further Reading

1. "A Simple Way To Trade Seasonality" by Perry J. Kaufman. Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, September 2019.

Backtesting is the evaluation of a particular trading strategy using historical data. Results presented are hypothetical, and there is no guarantee that the same strategy implemented today would produce similar results.

Technical analysis is not recommended as a sole means of investment research.

For educational purposes only. Not a recommendation of a specific security or investment strategy.

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FAQs

What is the seasonal trading strategy? ›

Seasonal Trading is a strategy designed by Perry J. Kaufman in an attempt to explore seasonal patterns in stock price. The strategy analyzes monthly price action using the Monthly Seasonality study and adds simulated buy and sell orders based on the resulting values.

Why do so many fail in trading? ›

Lack Of Discipline

However, many new traders enter the market with a casual mindset, often influenced by the stories of quick riches. This lack of discipline leads to impulsive decisions and poor trading plans that fail to analyse the market thoroughly.

What is the secret to successful trading? ›

Success in trading is intrinsically linked to emotional control. Almost 90% of this success depends on managing emotions during market fluctuations. Patience, discipline, and objectivity are essential for making accurate decisions.

What are the seasonal trading patterns? ›

Trade seasonal patterns refer to recurring trends and patterns observed in the financial markets within specific periods of the year. These patterns are influenced by various factors such as weather conditions, holidays, and economic cycles.

What is the simplest most profitable trading strategy? ›

One of the simplest and most widely known fundamental strategies is value investing. This strategy involves identifying undervalued assets based on their intrinsic value and holding onto them until the market recognizes their true worth.

How much money do day traders with $10,000 accounts make per day on average? ›

How much money do day traders with $10000 accounts make per day on average? On average, day traders with $10,000 accounts can make $200-$600 per day, with skilled traders aiming for 2%-5% returns daily. So, it is possible to achieve a daily profit of $200 to $600 with a $10,000 account.

What is the seasonal timing strategy? ›

The Seasonal Timing Strategy is a 100% mechanical timing model for the stock market that's based off the Best Six Months seasonal pattern. Unlike the original strategy, the entry and exit dates of STS have been fine-tuned and made elastic. That means it no longer enters or exits the market on exact dates.

Does seasonal investing work? ›

Trades based on seasonality alone are profitable in say seven or eight times out of 10, but are unprofitable in two or three times out of ten.

What are the most profitable trading patterns? ›

Some of the most successful chart patterns in trading include the Head and Shoulders pattern, Double Top and Double Bottom patterns, Triangle patterns, the Cup and Handle pattern, and the Flag and Pennant patterns.

What is a seasonal strategy? ›

Seasonal marketing strategies offer businesses a chance to align their marketing efforts with specific times of the year when seasonal events and holidays influence consumer behavior and purchasing patterns. These occasions present unique opportunities for businesses to engage with consumers and increase sales.

What is the seasonal investing strategy? ›

Seasonal investing is a strategy that involves buying and selling stocks or other assets based on their historical performance during different times of the year. The idea is that certain sectors or industries tend to outperform others during certain seasons.

How does seasonal affect the stock market? ›

One of the explanation put forward for the existence of seasonality in stock returns is the 'tax-loss-selling hypothesis. In the USA, December is the tax month. Thus, the financial houses sell shares whose values have fallen to book losses to reduce their taxes. As of result of this selling, stock prices decline.

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