Prediction: This Little-Known Fact Is Why Ethereum Will Hit $5,000 by the End of the Year | The Motley Fool (2024)

As the cryptocurrency market finds itself in the midst of another bull market, many digital assets have surged past or sit near all-time highs. However, Ethereum (ETH -0.83%), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has struggled to keep pace.

Despite its foundational role in the burgeoning decentralized finance (DeFi) economy and blockchain applications, Ethereum's price has not mirrored the explosive growth seen in other cryptocurrencies. There isn't a straightforward explanation for this disparity, but a closer look at the current landscape suggests that Ethereum's fortunes are about to change. Here's why Ethereum is poised to surpass $5,000 by the end of the year.

Following in Bitcoin's steps

The most significant catalyst for this anticipated surge is the approval of nine spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on July 19. A spot ETF is an exchange-traded fund that directly holds an underlying asset, in this case, Ethereum, allowing investors to gain exposure to its price movements without owning the asset itself. This approval is pivotal because it offers a regulated, straightforward way for institutional and retail investors to access Ethereum, without having to navigate complicated cryptocurrency exchanges.

To understand the potential impact of these spot Ethereum ETFs, we can look to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year. Following the SEC's approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January, Bitcoin's price initially fell by nearly 20%.

One key factor contributing this slump was the mass exodus from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC 2.39%), which had been a popular means for investors to gain Bitcoin exposure via the stock market. However, it didn't do a great job at tracking Bitcoin's price and it also charged a hefty fee. It can get a bit technical, but the spot ETFs offer more precise tracking of Bitcoin's price with lower fees, making them a more attractive investment vehicle.

In the weeks following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, a significant sell-off occurred from Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust. This sell-off exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin's price as investors shifted to the more efficient spot ETFs.

At the time, Grayscale held over 616,000 Bitcoins, but by mid-February (roughly a month after the spot ETF approval), this figure had dropped to around 462,000 Bitcoins, a 25% decline. Interestingly, as the sell-off from Grayscale began to wane, Bitcoin's price started to climb. By March, it notched a new all-time high of over $73,000, roughly a 60% increase.

A little speculation

With more than a week of trading under its belt, it's clear that the Ethereum market is experiencing a similar pattern to Bitcoin after its spot ETF approval. Before spot Ethereum ETFs, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE 2.61%) was the go-to for stock market investors. Like Bitcoin, it is also seeing substantial outflows as the market transitions to the newly approved spot ETFs.

This shift is happening even more rapidly than it did with Bitcoin. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust saw its holdings drop from 2.93 million Ether to 2.1 million Ether in just a week, a near 25% reduction and a mark that took the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust more than a month to hit. As it appears, the Ethereum sell-off might be ahead of schedule compared to Bitcoin.

While the timing might not play out exactly like Bitcoin, if Ethereum follows a similar trajectory, once the Grayscale selling subsides it could mean significant price appreciation. After the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust sold off the first 25% of its holdings, Bitcoin eventually climbed more than 50% in the next month. If something similar were to happen to Ethereum, that would entail a price of more than $5,300.

Final considerations to keep in mind

It is important to note that while the parallels between Bitcoin and Ethereum in the context of spot ETF approval are striking, they are not exact. Market dynamics, investor behavior, and external factors can all influence price movements differently.

However, the observed patterns do provide a basis for informed speculation. As the exodus from Grayscale's Ethereum Trust continues, it may exert temporary downward pressure on Ethereum's price. Yet, eventually this selling will ease, and when it does, the full impact of the new spot ETFs will materialize.