Period: January 1976 - August 2024 (~49 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 August 2024
Live Update: Sep 13 2024
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
1.00$
Initial Capital
September 1994
11.14$
Final Capital
August 2024
8.37%
Yearly Return
15.74
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63 months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
212.39$
Final Capital
August 2024
11.64%
Yearly Return
15.37
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63 months
Recovery Period
Live update: September 2024 (USD)
0.98%
1 day - Sep 13 2024
-0.54%
Month - September 2024
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be implemented with 10 ETFs. This portfolio has a very high risk, meaning it can experience significant fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a high risk tolerance who are seeking substantial returns and can withstand large drawdowns.
The asset allocation is the following: 100% on the Stock Market, 0% on Fixed Income, 0% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 0% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as very high risk.
As of August 2024, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.37% compound annual return, with a 15.74% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.
Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
100% Stocks
0% Fixed Income
0% Commodities
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The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) | ETF Ticker | ETF Currency | ETF Name | Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00 | DLS | USD | WisdomTree International SmallCp Div | Equity, Developed Markets, Small Cap, Value (USD) |
| 10.00 | EEM | USD | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap (USD) |
| 10.00 | IJR | USD | Equity, U.S., Small Cap (USD) | |
| 10.00 | IJS | USD | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD) | |
| 10.00 | SPY | USD | Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD) | |
| 10.00 | VTV | USD | Vanguard Value | Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value (USD) |
| 10.00 | VEA | USD | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets | Equity, EAFE, Large Cap (USD) |
| 10.00 | SCZ | USD | iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap | Equity, EAFE, Small Cap (USD) |
| 10.00 | EFV | USD | iShares MSCI EAFE Value | Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value (USD) |
| 10.00 | VNQ | USD | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. (USD) |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
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Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Aug 31, 2024
The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- rebalancing: at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
- the actual US Inflation rates.
September 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the original asset allocation.
PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 August 2024 (~49 years)
Live Update: Sep 13 2024
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Aug 31, 2024 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Sep 2024 | YTD (8M) | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y | MAX (~49Y) | |||
| Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio | 0.98 | -0.54 | 10.87 | 1.79 | 10.48 | 18.65 | 8.97 | 7.02 | 8.37 | 11.64 | |||
| US Inflation Adjusted return | 8.97 | 1.60 | 9.40 | 15.66 | 4.60 | 4.07 | 5.71 | 7.74 | |||||
| Components | |||||||||||||
DLS | USD | WisdomTree International SmallCp Div | 0.58 | Sep 13 2024 | -0.93 | 9.09 | 1.71 | 9.69 | 16.97 | 6.00 | 4.17 | 6.59 | 10.01 |
EEM | USD | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | 0.47 | Sep 13 2024 | -1.25 | 8.60 | 0.98 | 9.20 | 13.60 | 3.87 | 1.82 | 4.55 | 7.52 |
IJR | USD | 2.60 | Sep 13 2024 | -1.85 | 8.34 | -1.55 | 9.25 | 17.24 | 10.68 | 9.31 | 10.21 | 13.16 | |
IJS | USD | 2.73 | Sep 13 2024 | -1.44 | 4.93 | -1.38 | 8.41 | 13.83 | 10.21 | 8.13 | 10.46 | 14.58 | |
SPY | USD | 0.52 | Sep 13 2024 | -0.30 | 19.34 | 2.34 | 11.65 | 26.92 | 15.85 | 12.88 | 10.56 | 11.67 | |
VTV | USD | Vanguard Value | 0.72 | Sep 13 2024 | -0.82 | 17.08 | 2.88 | 12.33 | 23.61 | 12.66 | 10.46 | 9.68 | 11.99 |
VEA | USD | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets | 0.27 | Sep 13 2024 | -1.51 | 11.03 | 2.91 | 9.26 | 18.58 | 8.71 | 5.37 | 5.08 | 8.67 |
SCZ | USD | iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap | 0.40 | Sep 13 2024 | -0.08 | 8.15 | 1.87 | 9.29 | 14.67 | 6.24 | 5.25 | 6.64 | 10.05 |
EFV | USD | iShares MSCI EAFE Value | 0.48 | Sep 13 2024 | -0.97 | 12.18 | 2.95 | 12.08 | 20.50 | 8.92 | 3.88 | 5.54 | 9.67 |
VNQ | USD | Vanguard Real Estate | 1.04 | Sep 13 2024 | 3.69 | 9.93 | 5.22 | 13.54 | 20.53 | 4.48 | 6.30 | 9.21 | 11.95 |
| Returns over 1 year are annualized | |||||||||||||
| (*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York) | |||||||||||||
| US Inflation is updated to Aug 2024. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.59% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.52% | |||||||||||||
In 2023, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio granted a 3.05% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
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Capital Growth as of Aug 31, 2024
An investment of 1$, from September 1994 to August 2024, would be worth 11.14$, with a total return of 1014.33% (8.37% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 5.29$, with a net total return of 428.57% (5.71% annualized).
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An investment of 1$, from January 1976 to August 2024, would be worth 212.39$, with a total return of 21139.36% (11.64% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 37.59$, with a net total return of 3659.41% (7.74% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Aug 31, 2024
Metrics of Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio, updated as of 31 August 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.
These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- rebalancing: at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
- the actual US Inflation rates.
PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 August 2024 (~49 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Aug 31, 2024 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD (8M) | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX (~49Y) | |
| Investment Return (%) | 10.87 | 1.79 | 6.40 | 10.48 | 18.65 | 3.06 | 8.97 | 7.02 | 8.21 | 8.37 | 11.64 |
| Growth of 1$ | 1.11 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 1.10 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 1.54 | 1.97 | 4.85 | 11.14 | 212.39 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) | 8.97 | 1.60 | 6.10 | 9.40 | 15.66 | -1.68 | 4.60 | 4.07 | 5.51 | 5.71 | 7.74 |
| US Inflation (%) | 1.74 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.99 | 2.59 | 4.81 | 4.17 | 2.84 | 2.57 | 2.52 | 3.62 |
| Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | |||||||||||
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | Current | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | 0.00 | -8.11 | -24.70 | -27.54 | -27.54 | -57.21 | -57.21 | -57.21 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 4 | 27 | 11 | 11 | 63 | 63 | 63 | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 09 | 2022 01 | 2020 01 | 2020 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2020 03 | 2020 03 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47 | 47 | 47 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 12 | 2024 03 | 2020 11 | 2020 11 | 2013 01 | 2013 01 | 2013 01 | ||||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | same | same | -24.70 | -24.70 | same | same | same | ||||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 27 | 27 | |||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 09 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 47 | 47 | 47 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 12 | 2024 03 | 2024 03 | 2024 03 | 2013 01 | 2013 01 | 2013 01 | ||||
| Longest negative period (# months) | 4 | 32 | 34 | 44 | 68 | 68 | 68 | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 01 | 2021 09 | 2019 12 | 2016 08 | 2006 02 | 1997 08 | 1997 08 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 04 | 2024 04 | 2022 09 | 2020 03 | 2011 09 | 2003 03 | 2003 03 | ||||
| Annualized Return (%) | -0.55 | -0.55 | -0.34 | -0.04 | -0.22 | -0.14 | -0.14 | ||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -4.99 | -8.51 | -29.77 | -29.80 | -29.80 | -57.92 | -57.92 | -57.92 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 39* | 4 | 36* | 39* | 39* | 71 | 71 | 71 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 09 | 2021 09 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 55 | 55 | 55 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 12 | - | - | - | 2013 09 | 2013 09 | 2013 09 | ||||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | same | same | same | same | same | same | same | ||||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | |||||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 09 | 2021 09 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 55 | 55 | 55 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 12 | - | - | - | 2013 09 | 2013 09 | 2013 09 | ||||
| Longest negative period (# months) | 4 | 36* | 50 | 75 | 78 | 139 | 139 | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 01 | 2021 09 | 2019 09 | 2017 08 | 2006 05 | 1997 08 | 1997 08 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 04 | 2024 08 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2012 10 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | ||||
| Annualized Return (%) | -4.74 | -1.68 | -0.23 | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.10 | -0.10 | ||||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | |||||||||||
RISK INDICATORS | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | ||||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 14.96 | 17.24 | 18.59 | 15.50 | 16.83 | 15.74 | 15.37 | ||||
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.89 | -0.01 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.48 | ||||
| Sortino Ratio | 1.25 | -0.02 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.63 | ||||
| Ulcer Index | 2.86 | 10.15 | 9.97 | 7.85 | 14.09 | 12.17 | 10.22 | ||||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 1.25 | 0.18 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.76 | ||||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 2.30 | 0.12 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.20 | ||||
| Positive Months (%) | 58.33 | 50.00 | 58.33 | 60.83 | 62.50 | 62.50 | 64.55 | ||||
| Positive Months | 7 | 18 | 35 | 73 | 150 | 225 | 377 | ||||
| Negative Months | 5 | 18 | 25 | 47 | 90 | 135 | 207 | ||||
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | ||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 7.02 | 14.47 | 14.47 | 21.79 | |||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 4.41 | 3.22 | 3.22 | ||||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 4.07 | 12.49 | 12.49 | 16.31 | |||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 2.43 | 0.62 | 0.62 | ||||||||
TIMEFRAMES Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |
| ··· As of Aug 2024 - Over the previous 30Y | |||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 68.65 | 33.96 | 24.86 | 14.47 | 9.96 | 8.37 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -49.19 | -17.09 | -3.83 | 3.22 | 6.29 | ||||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 71.3 | 87.3 | 93.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 65.10 | 30.33 | 21.32 | 12.49 | 7.56 | 5.71 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -49.20 | -18.85 | -6.31 | 0.62 | 4.13 | ||||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 67.3 | 78.4 | 86.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |||||
| 95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 6.70 | 10.62 | 13.65 | 15.37 | 20.96 | 3.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| 95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 8.59 | 13.88 | 18.27 | 31.59 | 32.61 | 8.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| 99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 9.80 | 15.98 | 21.23 | 45.02 | 46.67 | 13.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| 99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 11.77 | 19.39 | 26.06 | 47.15 | 57.66 | 18.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data | |||||||||||
| Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) | 67.22 | 22.51 | 14.45 | 8.69 | 7.34 | 7.00 | |||||
| Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) | --- | --- | --- | 0.83 | 4.24 | 5.67 | |||||
| % based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | |||||||||||
| ··· All available data (Jan 1976 - Aug 2024) | |||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 68.65 | 40.49 | 34.09 | 21.79 | 16.46 | 14.98 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -49.19 | -17.09 | -3.83 | 3.22 | 6.29 | 7.64 | |||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 77.4 | 92.5 | 96.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 65.10 | 36.38 | 30.01 | 16.31 | 11.18 | 10.34 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -49.20 | -18.85 | -6.31 | 0.62 | 3.78 | 4.99 | |||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 71.3 | 85.0 | 92.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |||||
| 95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 6.28 | 9.58 | 11.75 | 13.88 | 14.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 8.12 | 12.77 | 16.26 | 24.90 | 26.34 | 4.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 9.30 | 14.82 | 19.16 | 39.47 | 34.29 | 9.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 11.23 | 18.15 | 23.87 | 45.12 | 50.78 | 14.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data | |||||||||||
| Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) | 67.22 | 22.51 | 14.45 | 8.69 | 7.34 | 6.55 | |||||
| Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) | --- | --- | --- | 0.83 | 4.24 | 5.11 | |||||
| % based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | |||||||||||
Terms and Definitions
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
- Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation. - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 August 2024
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Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
- A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
- A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
- A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 September 1994 - 31 August 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 August 2024 (~49 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns
For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 September 1994 - 31 August 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 August 2024 (~49 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1976 to August 2024.
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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Time Period: 1 September 1994 - 31 August 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 August 2024 (~49 years)
225 Positive Months (63%) - 135 Negative Months (38%)
377 Positive Months (65%) - 207 Negative Months (35%)
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Methodology
Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
- WisdomTree International SmallCp Div (DLS), up to December 2006
- iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), up to December 2003
- iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR), up to December 2000
- iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS), up to December 2000
- SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), up to December 1993
- Vanguard Value (VTV), up to December 2004
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA), up to December 2007
- iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap (SCZ), up to December 2007
- iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV), up to December 2005
- Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), up to December 2004
Portfolio efficiency
The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.
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