Over 90% of derivative traders lost money: Why you must avoid the trap of derivative trading (2024)

Synopsis

The stock exchanges have dropped all pretence of not being in the casino business. They have launched any number of products, like the daily/weekly expiry derivatives, which have no use except in gambling. The launch of online brokers and trading through apps mean that people trade all the time as a side activity.

Over 90% of derivative traders lost money: Why you must avoid the trap of derivative trading (1)Getty Images

Over 90% of derivative traders lost money: Why you must avoid the trap of derivative trading (2)

Dhirendra Kumar

CEO, Value Research

Last week, I wrote about scamsters who take people’s money, promising to generate profits on the stock market, but eventually lose it all. They are then forced to flee or face jail time. I mentioned Shivraj Puri, who was first arrested in 2011 for scamming Citibank customers, in Gurugram, out of about Rs.400 crore while working as a relationship manager. Puri was arrested, skipped bail, and was re-arrested six years later, eventually dying in jail a couple of years ago. While he was undoubtedly a scamster who robbed people, in a way, he was also a victim of what I believe to be the real scam in India. Though the source of his money was criminal, as an investor, he was just another casualty of the market.

Thirteen years ago, when this case first came to light, I had written this: “Citibank’s rogue relationship manager apparently blew up most of that money in the stock market. Specifically, he seems to have been trading in the Nifty derivatives. I almost wish that he had instead run off with the money and was sunning himself on a beach in the Caribbean, wearing a false beard, with the money safely laundered into a Cayman Islands account. But … like (other) traders around the country, he found the lure of ‘effendo’ too strong.”

I know the whole story about how derivatives provide depth and breadth to the stock market, but for a vast majority of retail investors, this is not true. Instead, as Warren Buffett pointed out, these are nothing but financial weapons of mass destruction. According to the Gurugram police, Puri purloined Rs.300 crore, leveraged it up to Rs.1,200 crore and then managed to shrink it down to Rs.175 crore when, in November, the Nifty refused to behave as he had expected it to. The only thing unique about his story is the scale, and the fact that he had stolen the money he was trading with. There is no shortage of people using their own money and then losing most of it.

Nothing I wrote 13 years ago has become dated. In fact, it’s even more relevant. That was 2011, and things seem to have become worse in 2024. The stock exchanges have dropped all pretence of not being in the casino business. They have launched any number of products, like the daily/weekly expiry derivatives, which have no use except in gambling.

On top of that, the launch of online brokers and trading through apps mean that people trade all the time as a side activity. When you see a crowd of youngsters hunched over their screens in an office lunchroom, not all of them are on Instagram; many are on brokerage apps, placing trades that will eventually cause them serious financial harm.

Over 90% of derivative traders lost money: Why you must avoid the trap of derivative trading (3)

    This has resulted in the craziest growth of derivative trading activity in the world. Last year, there were a total of 85.3 billion derivative contracts traded in India. Ten years ago, this figure was around 1 billion—85x in 10 years. Even though the number of contracts is not a precise measure of the underlying impact, it’s a good indicator of the madness that has taken hold. The saddest part is that a large proportion of these market participants think this is what the stock markets are. Fundamentally driven long-term investments are simply not on their mental horizon.

    The now-famous study conducted by Sebi last year showed that over 90% of the derivative traders lost money. Many of us had expected that the study would be the first step in some kind of regulatory tightening of the casino activity, but nothing has happened so far. New gambling products are being launched, derivative volumes are shooting up, and traders’ money will keep flowing into the pockets of the industry fat cats. All is well; everything is continuing exactly as it was.

    The Author CEO, VALUE RESEARCH

    (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)

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    Over 90% of derivative traders lost money: Why you must avoid the trap of derivative trading (2024)

    FAQs

    Why do 90% of traders lose money? ›

    The emotional aspect of trading often leads to irrational decisions like panic selling. When the market moves unfavourably, many traders, especially those who are inexperienced, tend to panic and exit their positions hastily. This panic selling often occurs at the worst possible time, leading to significant losses.

    Do 90% of people lose money in the stock market? ›

    Only the top 5 per cent profit makers account for 75 per cent of profits. Saad Bhakshi, an aspiring pilot, is addicted to stock market investing.

    Why do people lose money in derivatives? ›

    If you sell a call, the counter-party (the holder of the call) has control over whether or not the option will be exercised. As the writer of the call, your payoff is equal to the premium received from the buyer of the call. However, you face losses if the security's market price rises above the exercise price.

    Why is derivative trading bad? ›

    Another risk associated with derivatives is credit risk—the risk that the counterparty to the derivative contract will default on their obligations. If a counterparty defaults on a derivative contract, the investor may not receive the full value of the contract, leading to losses.

    What is the 90 rule in trading? ›

    According to this rule, 90% of novice traders will experience significant losses within their first 90 days of trading, ultimately wiping out 90% of their initial capital.

    Why do 95% of traders fail? ›

    Insufficient Education and Knowledge:

    Many traders plunge into the market without a solid grasp of its nuances. This lack of understanding leads to impulsive decision-making and substantial financial losses. Comprehensive education is the bedrock upon which successful trading stands.

    What happens if you lose 100% of your stock? ›

    If a stock's price falls all the way to zero, shareholders end up with worthless holdings. Once a stock falls below a certain threshold, stock exchanges will delist those shares.

    Why do so many people lose money on trading? ›

    By addressing these common reasons for losses—such as lacking a defined strategy, poor risk management, overtrading, emotional decision-making, and trading in overhyped stocks —traders can significantly improve their chances of success in the dynamic world of financial markets.

    Why 99 percent traders lose money? ›

    1- No Strategy

    The Number #1 reason why traders fail is that they have no strategy. A lot of traders don't want to acknowledge this but the fact is they have no idea what they are doing. Their idea of a strategy is some combination of technical indicators that they have heard or read somewhere.

    What causes derivative losses? ›

    The use of derivatives can result in large losses because of the use of leverage, or borrowing. Derivatives allow investors to earn large returns from small movements in the underlying asset's price. However, investors could lose large amounts if the price of the underlying moves against them significantly.

    How derivatives caused the financial crisis? ›

    The financial crisis of 2008 exposed significant weaknesses in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market, including the build-up of large counterparty exposures between market participants which were not appropriately risk-managed; limited transparency concerning levels of activity in the market and overall size of ...

    Is it risky to trade on derivatives? ›

    Derivatives can also help investors leverage their positions, such as by buying equities through stock options rather than shares. The main drawbacks of derivatives include counterparty risk, the inherent risks of leverage, and the fact that complicated webs of derivative contracts can lead to systemic risks.

    What does Warren Buffett say about derivatives? ›

    Warren Buffett described some derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction.” ¹ In light of recent events on Wall Street, does The Regional Economist agree? Yes, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. Firms and individual investors can lose a lot of money very quickly.

    What are the pros and cons of derivatives? ›

    Financial derivatives can offer many benefits to investors, such as hedging against risk and providing opportunities for greater profits. However, they also have their fair share of disadvantages, including potential losses and complex market dynamics.

    How profitable is derivative trading? ›

    Derivatives trading, if done correctly, can easily be used to earn a living. However, seasoned derivatives traders conduct meaningful research, make careful market moves, hedge their bets, and follow their appetite for risk. Ensure you follow these basic principles when trading derivatives.

    Why do 80% of traders lose money? ›

    One of the primary reasons traders lose money is the absence of a clear trading strategy. According to research by Bloomberg, over 80% of day traders quit within the first two years, often due to insufficient strategies. One of the primary reasons traders lose money is the absence of a clear trading strategy.

    Why do 99 percent of traders lose money? ›

    1- No Strategy

    The Number #1 reason why traders fail is that they have no strategy. A lot of traders don't want to acknowledge this but the fact is they have no idea what they are doing. Their idea of a strategy is some combination of technical indicators that they have heard or read somewhere.

    Is it true that most traders lose money? ›

    From movies like The Wolf of Wall Street to Robinhood commercials, it's often advertised that you can make big money through trading the markets. It might sound as simple as “buy low” and “sell high,” but the reality is that the vast majority of traders end up losing money over time.

    How much does the average trader lose? ›

    Earlier a study by Sebi found that 89 per cent of individual traders in the equity F&O segment suffered losses with average losses of Rs 1.1 lakh in FY22.

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