Benchmark crude oil prices bounced back from six-month lows over the course of June after OPEC+ officials stated that unwinding voluntary production cuts would depend on market conditions – and as geopolitical risks remained high. ICE Brent futures rose by $5/bbl to $86/bbl by end-month.
Oil prices increased in June despite mounting concerns over the health of the Chinese economy and slowing oil demand growth. Global observed inventories were up in May for the fourth month in a row, reaching their highest level since August 2021. Offshore inventories moved ashore at a brisk pace, with oil on water down sharply, while on land stocks rose to a 30-month high ahead of the seasonal uptick in refinery activity. OECD industry stocks built for a second consecutive month after having declined for the previous six months. Preliminary data suggest global oil stocks fell 18.1 mb in June, led by a 1 mb/d draw in crude.
World oil demand growth slowed to only 710 kb/d in 2Q24, its lowest quarterly increase in over a year. Oil consumption in China, long the engine of global oil demand growth, contracted in both April and May, and is now assessed marginally below year earlier levels in 2Q24. That stands in stark contrast to annual gains of 1.5 mb/d in 2023 and 740 kb/d in 1Q24. Demand for industrial fuels and petrochemical feedstocks was particularly weak. By contrast, second-quarter delivery data of gasoil and naphtha for OECD economies came in higher than expected, potentially signalling a budding recovery in Europe’s ailing manufacturing sector. While the bounce temporarily pushed quarterly OECD demand growth back into positive territory, non-OECD countries will account for all this year’s global gains. World oil demand growth expectations for the 2024 and 2025 are largely unchanged at 970 kb/d and 980 kb/d, respectively.
At the same time, global oil supply trended higher, with 2Q24 production up 910 kb/d from 1Q24, led by the United States. Output is forecast to rise by another 770 kb/d in 3Q24 with non-OPEC+ providing 600 kb/d of the gains. For 2024 as a whole, global oil supply growth is forecast to average 770 kb/d, which will boost oil supply to a record 103 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ output is expected to rise by 1.5 mb/d, while OPEC+ production will fall by 740 kb/d year-on-year if existing voluntary cuts are maintained. Global supply growth in 2025 is projected at a much stronger 1.8 mb/d, with non-OPEC+, mainly in the United States, Canada, Guyana and Brazil, leading gains for a third consecutive year, adding 1.5 mb/d.
In early June, OPEC+ laid out a roadmap for unwinding extra voluntary supply reductions of up to 2.2 mb/d from 4Q24 through 3Q25. Given the bloc’s assurances that the production increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, we will adjust our OPEC+ supply numbers when such a decision is confirmed. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is meanwhile due to meet on 1 August to review global oil market conditions and production levels. Our current non-OPEC+ supply and global demand forecasts show the call on OPEC+ crude at 42.2 mb/d in 3Q24 and 41.8 mb/d in 4Q24 – roughly 800 kb/d and 400 kb/d above its June output, respectively. For next year, the call on OPEC+ crude tumbles to 41.1 mb/d as demand growth continues to slow and non-OPEC+ output continues to expand. After the hot summer, cooler trends are set to prevail.
