Market cap or equal weight? (2024)

Investors should not be forced to choose between high concentration and low conviction. Instead, active stock selection can maintain diversification while overweighting the best stocks, not necessarily the biggest.

The S&P 500 has reached a new milestone: crossing 5000. It is up 5.4% year-to-date, compared to the equal weight S&P 500, up just 0.7%. Although it seemed like the rest of the market was poised for a rally, the Magnificent 7, which account for nearly 30% of the index, have surged 12.7% since the start of the year. While we would not advocate allocating to an equal weight index, there is scope for broader participation in the rally which investors can access through more active stock selection.

Historically, market concentration lends itself to market cap outperformance when there is momentum behind a small cohort of stocks. This was the case during the tech bubble of the late 1990s, before the financial crisis when energy’s weight in the index doubled, and since 2017 when tech concentration began reasserting itself. However, we’ve seen reversals of this after the tech bubble burst, when the Fed began raising rates at the end of 2015 and in 2022, or when participation broadened out the immediate recovery from the financial crisis or in 2021, when energy, financials, and real estate posted big rebounds as the economy reopened. In addition, when the VIX is above its long-term average of 19.6, equal weight outperforms on average compared to periods of low volatility when market cap prevails, like last year.

In 2024, we do not expect a reversal in big tech, but rather a broadening out in market participation due to valuations and profits:

  • Valuations: In 2023, 68% of S&P 500 returns were attributable to multiple expansion, leaving valuations somewhat rich. The S&P 500, which is market-cap weighted, is about 26% more expensive than its average valuation of 16.2x back since 2009, while the S&P 500 equal weight is only 5% more expensive. From a valuation perspective, there may be more room to run for a broader set of stocks. In addition, profits, which are estimated to grow by nearly 11% in 2024, should be a key determinant of returns this year.
  • Profits: Last year, the Magnificent 7 essentially drove all the S&P 500’s returns and profit growth, with profits up an estimated 31% in the Magnificent 7 in 2023 compared to profits contracting 4.3% in the rest of the S&P 500. This year, that leadership should broaden out, with 39% of profit growth projected to come from the Magnificent 7 and 61% coming from the rest of the index.

Even if market leadership broadens out, this does not advocate for an equal weight index of all stocks. Investors should not be forced to choose between high concentration and low conviction. Instead, active stock selection can maintain diversification while overweighting the best stocks, not necessarily the biggest.

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Market cap or equal weight? (2024)

FAQs

What is the difference between market cap and equal weighting? ›

Far less widely used than their market cap-weighted peers, equal-weighted indexes seek to be size-neutral. While the constituent stocks that make up an index are the same as with a market cap-weighted index, each stock is allocated the same weight rather than varied weights based on market cap.

Is equal weight S&P 500 a good investment? ›

Although equal weighted ones may or may not have truly better performance, especially when you stick to the broad market or the S&P 500, there are definitely some trade-offs. Pros: Under the largest sample sizes, their long-term performance appears to be superior, at least for non-tech groupings.

Is equal weight portfolio better? ›

Equal-weighted portfolios have produced higher returns than cap-weighted ones because they have more exposure (they “tilt”) to factors such as size and value that have historically provided premiums.

Is market cap weighting the best? ›

Many of the most popular benchmark indexes are market cap-weighted, making them easily accessible to most investors looking to access a well-diversified, broad-based portfolio. Over time, however, if certain companies grow enough, they can take up excessive weight in an index.

What is the difference between the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 equal weight? ›

The market cap weighted S&P 500 Index (the traditional version) is not rebalanced and has higher concentrations to larger, growth companies, while the equal weight index has more exposure to smaller and value-oriented companies.

What is the best equal-weighted ETF for the S&P 500? ›

Equal-Weighted ETFs can be found in the following asset classes: EquityFixed IncomeCurrencyAlternativesAsset AllocationThe largest Equal-Weighted ETF is the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF RSP with $57.60B in assets. In the last trailing year, the best-performing Equal-Weighted ETF was FNGU at 57.27%.

Why Voo over spy? ›

While the two ETFs follow the same strategy, they earn different ratings. VOO earns a top rating of Gold, while SPY earns the next best rating of Silver. Almahasneh says the reason is fees and inefficiencies of the unit investment trust structure.

Does equal weight outperform? ›

In addition, when the VIX is above its long-term average of 19.6, equal weight outperforms on average compared to periods of low volatility when market cap prevails like last year. In 2024, we do not expect a reversal in big tech but rather a broadening out in market participation due to valuations and profits.

Why use equal weight ETF? ›

In contrast, traditional market-cap-weighted ETFs give a higher weighting to larger companies, while smaller companies have a lower weighting. By providing equal exposure to all the constituents, these ETFs can capture the potential growth of smaller companies that might be overlooked in market-cap-weighted strategies.

What is the ideal portfolio weighting? ›

Understanding Portfolio Weight

At the broadest level, the portfolio may be weighted with 40% blue-chip stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% growth stocks. In that growth stocks category, the investor may want to dabble in emerging market funds, but with no more than 10% of the whole pie.

What is the most optimal Sharpe ratio portfolio? ›

Usually, any Sharpe ratio greater than 1.0 is considered acceptable to good by investors. A ratio higher than 2.0 is rated as very good. A ratio of 3.0 or higher is considered excellent. A ratio under 1.0 is considered sub-optimal.

What is the difference between Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq 100 equal weight? ›

How does the NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index differ from the regular NASDAQ-100 Index? Unlike the regular NASDAQ-100 Index that is weighted based on market capitalization, the NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index gives each company an equal weight, reducing the impact of larger companies.

Does market cap really matter? ›

A high market cap signifies that the company has a larger presence in the market. Larger companies may have less growth potential than start-up firms, but established companies may be able to secure financing cheaper, have a more consistent stream of revenue, and capitalize on brand recognition.

What is a decent market cap? ›

mega-cap: market value of $200 billion or more; large-cap: market value between $10 billion and $200 billion; mid-cap: market value between $2 billion and $10 billion; small-cap: market value between $250 million and $2 billion; and. micro-cap: market value of less than $250 million.

Is market cap the best way to value a company? ›

Market cap is often referred to as the value of a company or what a company is worth but a company's true market value is infinitely more complex. Market value is determined by valuations or multiples accorded by investors to companies, such as price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, and enterprise value-to-EBITDA.

What does equal-weighted mean in stocks? ›

An equal-weighted index is a stock market index – comprised of a group of publicly traded companies – that invests an equal amount of money in the stock of each company that makes up the index. Thus, the performance of each company's stock carries equal importance in determining the total value of the index.

What is the difference between market cap and equity value? ›

Key Takeaways. Market capitalization is the total dollar value of all outstanding shares of a company. Equity is a simple statement of a company's assets minus its liabilities. It is helpful to consider both equity and market capitalization to get the most accurate picture of a company's worth.

What does market weighting mean? ›

Meaning of market weight in English

used for talking about the value of a particular type of shares in relation to others on a particular stock market: Financial stocks account for about 60% of the market weight of Hong Kong's benchmark index.

What is the difference between asset weighted and equal-weighted? ›

Asset-weighted calculations determine stock weights based on the value of the security/account relative to others in the portfolio/composite where equal-weighted calculations give all securities/accounts in the portfolio/composite the same weight.

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