​​​​Indices at all-time highs – what happens next? (2024)

​​​While many investors may feel nervous about the potential for a fall, historical analysis shows that investing when the stock market is at an all-time high can actually be a profitable strategy in the medium to long-term.

​The US stock market hits new all-time highs more frequently than one might expect, with new records being set in 30% of months since 1926. On average, 12-month returns following an all-time high have been 10.3% above inflation, better than the 8.6% for periods not at new highs.

​No need to fear new highs

​The impact of avoiding the market after new highs can be severely detrimental to long-term wealth creation. Data from Schroders shows that a $100 investment in the US stock market in January 1926 would be worth $85,008 by the end of 2023 in inflation-adjusted terms, representing a 7.1% annualised return.

​However, a strategy that switched to cash whenever the market hit a new high would have resulted in a much lower terminal value of just $8,790 – 90% less.

​Short-term picture more mixed

​No investing strategy works 100% of the time. New highs are often followed up by other record highs, but pullbacks are a feature, not a bug, of even the strongest market rallies. Some are short-lived, such as the recent April pullback in US indices, but others can go on for much longer.

​If a trader’s horizon is more short-term, then it is prudent to make sure they are following the price trend in their chosen timeline, but also the longer-term trend.

​All-time highs not a reason to turn bearish

​While feelings of nervousness are normal when stock markets reach unprecedented levels, historical data clearly demonstrates that there is no rational reason to fear investing during periods of all-time highs. The market setting new record levels should not, in itself, deter investors from participating in equity markets.

​Other valid considerations may exist, but the all-time high level alone is not a justifiable reason to dislike stocks.

​​​​Indices at all-time highs – what happens next? (2024)

FAQs

What happens when the market reaches all time high? ›

Every time the stock market reaches an all-time high, many investors decide to defer investment in equities or look to redeem existing investments with an anticipation that they will be able to invest at a lower market level.

What to do when a stock hits all time high? ›

Some rules to keep in mind when trading all time highs include categorizing the breakout's progress through phases, reviewing pattern structures into the breakout, locating hidden resistance levels, finding your profit protection prices, and considering additional exposure.

What is the conclusion of stock indices? ›

Conclusion. Stock market indices serve as valuable indicators for investment decisions. Whether assessing the overall market or specific sectors, indices like Nifty or Sensex offer crucial insights. For beginners, index investing is often viewed as a low-risk approach to equity investment.

How does inflation affect indices? ›

As lower inflation is associated with lower interest rates and increased spending, the demand for shares grows as companies show strong revenues – this results in share price appreciation. Lower inflation is also good news for stocks with lower, but reliable, dividend pay-outs.

What is the ATH trading strategy? ›

ATH trading, short for All-Time High trading, refers to buying or selling a cryptocurrency when its price reaches its historical highest point. This strategy revolves around the belief that reaching an ATH may trigger significant price movements, presenting opportunities for traders to profit.

Why are stocks hitting all-time high? ›

The stock market's strong performance bucks the trend of paltry returns during times of high interest rates, with investor intrigue for technology stocks at the forefront of the artificial intelligence push, like Nvidia, accounting for much of the broader gains.

What is the conclusion of the indices? ›

Conclusion. In mathematics, indices are a useful tool for denoting the process of raising or lowering a number to a power or root. Taking a power is just the process of multiplying a number by itself several times, whereas taking a root is the same as taking a fractional power of the number.

Are indices better than stocks? ›

"Index funds are a low-cost way to track a specific group of investments, which can be more broadly diversified than individual stocks and simpler to buy than each of the individual holdings within the index," she said.

What do indices indicate? ›

Indices are a measurement of the price performance of a group of shares from an exchange.

What are the worst investments during inflation? ›

What Are the Worst Things to Invest in During Inflation? Some of the worst investments during high inflation are retail, technology, and durable goods because spending in these areas tends to drop.

What happens to stock prices during hyperinflation? ›

Rising costs and uncertain revenue growth can take a toll on corporate profit margins, and stock prices can fall in response. On a broader scale, high inflation creates unknowns about future interest rates. That uncertainty often contributes to market volatility.

Is it good to buy stocks during inflation? ›

Rising inflation can be costly for consumers, stocks and the economy. Value stocks perform better in high inflation periods and growth stocks perform better when inflation is low. Stocks tend to be more volatile when inflation is elevated.

What happens when the market price is too high? ›

As the price of a good goes up, consumers demand less of it and more supply enters the market. If the price is too high, the supply will be greater than demand, and producers will be stuck with the excess. Conversely, as the price of a good goes down, consumers demand more of it and less supply enters the market.

What does "all-time high" mean in the stock market? ›

After all, investing at all-time highs means paying a price that no one has ever paid before – creating a seemingly guaranteed recipe for regret. This kind of thinking is linked to trying to time the market. Investors who do this try to avoid market highs and buy at market lows.

How often is the stock market at all-time high? ›

From 2013, when the S&P 500 recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, to 2021, the average year experienced 38 days closing at new all-time highs, or roughly 15% of trading days.

What does high end of the market mean? ›

Definition of 'high-end' high-end. adjective. High-end products, especially electronic products, are the most expensive of their kind.

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