Apple’s India revenue is expected to rise 20% in FY25, putting it on track to become the iPhone-maker’s third-largest market after China and the US within the next two to three years, analysts said, following reports of record revenues from India for the March quarter.
Earlier on Friday, Apple’s chief executive, Tim Cook, said that the March quarter saw Apple register yet another quarterly revenue record in India—making this the eighth straight quarter, or two full years, of sustained growth for the brand in India. “We did grow by strong double-digit, and were very, very pleased about it. I see India as an incredibly exciting market, and it's a major focus for us. In terms of the operational side or the supply-chain side, we are producing there—from a pragmatic point of view, you need to produce there to be competitive,” he said.
“In India, these two things are linked. But, we have both operational things going on, and we have a go-to-market, and initiatives going on. We just opened a couple of stores last year, and we see enormous opportunities there. We're continuing to expand our channels, and also working on the developer ecosystem as well. We've been very pleased that there is a rapidly-growing base of developers there. And so, we're working all of the entire ecosystem from developer to the market to operations, the whole thing,” he further added.
This marks India as a potentially significant market. On 3 February, Mint reported that increasing enterprise clients could boost Apple to register over $10 billion in annual revenue in India for FY24—which could also be the first full fiscal where Apple tops the smartphone market’s revenue chart. This revenue growth, if realized, has likely been fuelled by a sustained growth in shipments for Apple, while maintaining the highest average selling price (ASP) per device of $1,000 ( ₹80,000) in the India market.
“We believe that Apple will continue to grow faster than the market, and might grow over 20% in revenue in CY24. India will be one of its biggest markets—and is likely to even become their third largest by geography in the next three years,” said Tarun Pathak, research director at market research firm, Counterpoint India.
Navkendar Singh, associate vice-president at market researcher International Data Corp. (IDC) India, said that Apple has had “a record March quarter for iPhones, with a shipment volume growth of nearly 20% year-on-year.” Singh attributed this growth to “discounts and special deals on online commerce platforms, as well as financing options beyond the festive season.”
Even as retail growth continues, a further key driver is its exports. Last month, a report by trade intelligence platform Trade Vision said that Apple’s exports of smartphones from India in FY24 doubled to $12.1 billion—accounting for over 73% of India’s total smartphone exports of $16.5 billion. Cook acknowledged this growth, underscoring India’s rising importance for the company. Interestingly, Apple was a bit-part player at best in India until recently, with under 2% market share five years ago. Today, its consumer market share in smartphones is estimated to be over 7% in FY24—thereby more than tripling its market presence among users.
To be sure, the March quarter saw Apple’s quarterly overall revenue drop 4% to $90.8 billion on weak global cues. However, Apple shares were up nearly 7% in pre-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange, due to a share buyback announcement from one of the world’s most valuable companies.
In India, Apple has remained an outlier in an otherwise lacklustre electronics market. Sales grew by 1% in 2023 even as a higher number of users shifted to higher priced smartphones, taking up the average sale price for the market. The ongoing calendar year is expected to be better for India, as well as global markets. On 16 April, Mint reported that the March quarter is likely to have seen a 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) shipment hike—even as Apple grew at a quadruple pace. This, in turn, could add up to 2024 being the first calendar year when the smartphone market revenue goes beyond pre-pandemic levels, while Apple’s dominance grows.
“Given the headwinds that Apple continues to face in the European Union (EU) and China, India will be the key to powering Apple’s growth over the next decade,” said Prabhu Ram, head of industry intelligence at market researcher CyberMedia Research. Apple's strong brand salience among the aspirational youth, coupled with strong online and offline retail presence, are powering its growth.
Apple’s offline retail strategy, too, appears to have worked. Reports claimed that Apple’s two retail stores have each clocked over ₹200 crore in revenue in their first full year of operations, having opened on 18 April last year.
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