·Forecast puts country ahead of Egypt, Brazil, Germany, UK, Japan, Russia, France, South Africa, others
·Estimates GDP to hit $13.1 trillion
·China to topple US
James Emejo in Abuja
A leading global investment bank, Goldman Sachs, has predicted that Nigeria will emerge as the world’s fifth largest economy by 2075, in a groundbreaking report where it identified the 25 largest economies.
The report also projected the country to rank as the world’s 15th-largest economy by 2050.
The top global investment banker further predicted the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to reach $13.1 trillion by 2075, further solidifying its position as Africa’s largest economy.
According to the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (2022) report, which revealed the “25 Largest Economies in the World by 2075”,the projection puts Nigeria ahead of Pakistan at 6th position, Egypt (7th), Brazil (8th), Germany (9th), UK (10th) Mexico (11th), Japan (12th), Russia (13th), Philippines (14th), and France (15th).
Other countries trailing Nigeria in the forecastincluded Bangladesh, which is projected to emerge as the 16th world’s largest economy by 2075,Ethiopia (17th),Saudi Arabia (18th),Canada (19th),Turkey (20th),Australia (21st),Italy (22nd),Malaysia (23rd),South Korea (24th), andSouth Africa, which occupied the 25th position.
China is projected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2050 up till 2075, while India is expected to emerge as the world’s second-largest economy by 2075.
The third and fourth positions, according to the report, will go to the United States and Indonesia, respectively.
Nigeria’s growth is expected to be driven by its large and young population, potential in agriculture and energy sectors, and emerging technology sector.
The report, however, pointed out that political instability, infrastructure deficits, and diversifying the economy beyond crude oil could pose constraints to the growth projections.
The report stated that the weight of global GDP will shift substantially towards Asia over the next several decades.
Goldman Sachs further explained that the assessment was based on extensive data analysis and economic modeling, which offered a fascinating glimpse into the future, highlighting shifts in economic power and the emergence of new players on the global stage.
The projection further painted a picture of a world where Asia’s economic clout is markedly pronounced, with China and India leading the charge.
The list also reflected the significant growth of economies in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, indicating a more diversified global economic landscape.
Essentially, the report incorporates factors, including GDP growth rates, population dynamics, productivity improvements, and technological innovation in its assessment, noting however, that such long-term forecasts are inherently speculative and subject to change based on unforeseen global events and trends.
The report said Indonesia, which has the world’s fourth largest population at 277 million could grow its GDP from $1.3 trillion in 2022 to nearly $14 trillion by 2075, while Japan’s GDP is expected to grow by less than one per cent annually for the next several decades, pushing it out of the top 10 by 2075.
Although China’s population is beginning to shrink, its GDP could climb to $57 trillion by 2075, keeping ahead of India at $52.5 trillion and the United States at $51.5 trillion.
Also, Egypt is tipped to become the world’s seventh largest economy by 2075 with an estimated GDP of $10.4 trillion, driven largely by the country’s strategic location, growing service sector, and government reforms in infrastructure and energy.
Nigeria’s economic rival, South Africa with a projected GDP of $3.3 trillion is expected to emerge as the world’s 25th economy by 2075, banking on its rich natural resources, developed financial and legal systems, and regional influence.
Reacting to the report, Founding Chief Executive, of Praefinium Partners, Alpesh Patel, said the projection for 2075 highlighted a world where economic power is more evenly distributed globally, with emerging economies playing increasingly prominent roles.
He said: “This shift underscores the importance of economic reforms, technological advancement, and demographic factors in shaping the future global economic landscape.
“The rise of countries like India, Indonesia, and Nigeria, alongside the sustained economic influence of nations like the US, China, and Germany, paints a diverse and dynamic picture of the world economy in the latter half of the 21st century.”
