Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets (2024)

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A special issue of International Journal of Financial Studies (ISSN 2227-7072).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2018) | Viewed by 71830

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Special Issue Editors

Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets (6) Prof. Dr. Hong Bo

Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets (7) Prof. Dr. Hong Bo


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Guest Editor

School of Finance and Management, SOAS University of London, London WC1H 0XG, UK
Interests: financial economics; comparative financial systems; firm investment decisions under uncertainty; capital market imperfections; corporate finance; corporate governance; the Chinese financial system and the Chinese economy
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets (8) Dr. Ansgar Belke

Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets (9) Dr. Ansgar Belke


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Guest Editor

Ad Personam Jean Monnet Professor for Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, D-45117 Essen, Germany
Interests: international macroeconomics; monetary economics; economic integration; applied econometrics

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

On 23June 2016,Britainvoted to leave theEU, andthe Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU are currently ongoing.

Participantsin the global financial marketsarefacinggreatuncertainty aboutwhatimpactBrexitwillhave on theEuropeanfinancial systemandparticularly, the UK financial services sector anditscapitalmarkets. Ithas beenarguedthat Brexit will result in lossesof business for the UK-based financial firms, reductionof the human capital pool for theUKfinancialservices sector, loss of competitiveness of the City of London as an international financialcentre,and foreseeable higher costs ofdoingbusiness forboth UKandEuropean financial firms due to amendmentsof regulationsand the construction ofnewfinancial infrastructures within the EU.

However, Brexit mayalsoprovide newopportunitiesto the UK financialsector.For example, leaving the EU may setthe UKfinancialsector free to establishbusinesswith other marketsoutsidetheEU, such as theUS,the Middle East, andAsianemergingmarkets, which mayreinforcethe importanceof theUKfinancial service sectorinthe global financial system.

Overall,there areuncertaintiessurrounding what the new relationship between theUKand the EUwilllook likeafterBrexit.Brexitnot onlychallenges practitioners, but alsobrings about manyacademicquestions, whichinclude, forexample:

(1)Giventhat theUK isthe mostrepresentative market-orientatedfinancialsystem in the EU,whilst the EU is, in general, a banking-orientatedone, howwill the EU developits capital marketswithoutthe participation of the UK financial sector?

(2) What will be thechanges inthe models of risk managementfor banks, funds, insurancecompanies,and otherasset management firms afterBrexitin both the UK and the EU?

(3) How dodifferentelements of the financial systemin both the UKand theEUrespond to events relatedtoBrexit?These elements includethe stock market, thebond market,the derivatives market, the foreign exchange market, and the real estate market, etc.

(4) What are therelocation patterns ofcorporate headquartersof firms in the financial sector from theUKto the EU countries and tothe rest of the world, and vice versa?

(5) How does the labour marketre-adjustit*elfin response to the changes inthedemand andthesupply of talents in the financial sector inboth the UK and the EU, including the pay for executives and employees?

This Special Issue will provide a goodopportunityfor researchersin financial economics to examinequestions related to the above-mentioned areas.In addition, studies onother subtopics that are relevant toBrexitand its impact on financial systemswillalsobe considered.

Dr. Hong Bo
Prof. Dr. Ansgar Belke
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • Brexit
  • financial system
  • capital market
  • risk management
  • financial services
  • event study
  • relocation of corporate headquarters

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Published Papers (7 papers)

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9 pages, 194 KiB

Article

The Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets—Taking Stock

by Michaela Hohlmeier and Christian Fahrholz

Int. J. Financial Stud. 2018, 6(3), 65; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030065 - 16 Jul 2018

Cited by 10 |Viewed by 16748

Abstract

The UK’s withdrawal from the EU will have far-reaching consequences on the European economy. However, the ultimate consequences of Brexit, especially for financial markets, depend on the final agreement, which is still under negotiation. Currently, regulated financial services can be provided across borders [...] Read more.

The UK’s withdrawal from the EU will have far-reaching consequences on the European economy. However, the ultimate consequences of Brexit, especially for financial markets, depend on the final agreement, which is still under negotiation. Currently, regulated financial services can be provided across borders under simplified conditions. Without a special agreement, these EU passports cease to apply for business activities between both jurisdictions after Brexit. The EU third-country regimes for non-EEA companies are too few and too unsecure for intensive relations in trade and services. Knowing that London is the leading global financial center, an adequate agreement needs to be found, to ensure affordable and sufficient financial services for business, investors, and consumers. Unfortunately, it appears almost impossible to find solutions for the often contrary interests and various thematic areas in the remaining negotiating period—a no deal scenario becomes more likely. As a result, market participants have started to adapt structures and processes accordingly, by relocating certain functions to the EU27. Nevertheless, it is up to the negotiators to reach an agreement, which achieves the best possible outcome for all affected parties taking into account the opportunity costs of a failure in present Brexit negotiations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets)

12 pages, 2784 KiB

Article

Performance of Exchange Traded Funds during the Brexit Referendum: An Event Study

by Akram Alkhatib and Murad Harasheh

Int. J. Financial Stud. 2018, 6(3), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030064 - 13 Jul 2018

Cited by 12 |Viewed by 5923

Abstract

In today’s interrelated economies, financial information travel at speed of light to reach investors around the globe. Global financial markets experience regular shocks that transmit negative waves to other equity markets and different asset classes. Given the unique characteristics of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), [...] Read more.

In today’s interrelated economies, financial information travel at speed of light to reach investors around the globe. Global financial markets experience regular shocks that transmit negative waves to other equity markets and different asset classes. Given the unique characteristics of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), this paper examines how different ETFs that are traded on London Financial center reacted to the Brexit event in 23 June 2016. The unexpected referendum result the day after is viewed as the next significant financial event since 2008. The paper employs an event study market model on daily and abnormal returns of the selected ETFs with respect to FTSE 250 around the event date. Contrary to what is expected, the world equities fund experienced significant positive abnormal return on the event day. Emerging markets again proved to be a preferred investment destination in times of financial turmoil; the emerging equities fund gained 3% while enjoying an 11.5% positive significant abnormal returns. The US T-Bond fund recorded a 9% return with a significant 7.2% abnormal return. The gold fund soared as much as 4% as investors seeks refuge from Brexit, and the oil fund retraced 1% amid concerns of slowing global demand. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets)

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19 pages, 960 KiB

Article

The Impact of Brexit on the Stock Markets of the Greater China Region

by Lucía Morales and Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan

Int. J. Financial Stud. 2018, 6(2), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6020051 - 10 May 2018

Cited by 3 |Viewed by 5529

Abstract

An examination of Brexit and its initial impact on the main stock markets in the Greater China Region (GCR) was conducted using augmented market models that integrate Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and implied volatility (VIX). The results do not seem to align with [...] Read more.

An examination of Brexit and its initial impact on the main stock markets in the Greater China Region (GCR) was conducted using augmented market models that integrate Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and implied volatility (VIX). The results do not seem to align with research in the field that has suggested that the EPU index helps to identify if market participants are reacting to political events. The main research findings suggest that Brexit does not appear to have an impact on the performance of market returns in the region and the influence of economic policy uncertainty in the GCR appears to be insignificant, except for Hong Kong. Overall, China’s stock markets do not seem to be panicking and overreacting to unfolding events in the UK, and market instability in the region appears to be more associated with global and regional events that are better captured by the VIX index. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets)

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21 pages, 2079 KiB

Article

BREXIT and Foreign Direct Investment: Key Issues and New Empirical Findings

by Paul J. J. Welfens and Fabian J. Baier

Int. J. Financial Stud. 2018, 6(2), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6020046 - 24 Apr 2018

Cited by 27 |Viewed by 16602

Abstract

This contribution takes a new look at the gravity equation model in relation to foreign direct investment (FDI) of leading industrialized countries which presents a useful basis for assessing certain potential impacts arising from BREXIT—the envisaged leaving of the EU by the United [...] Read more.

This contribution takes a new look at the gravity equation model in relation to foreign direct investment (FDI) of leading industrialized countries which presents a useful basis for assessing certain potential impacts arising from BREXIT—the envisaged leaving of the EU by the United Kingdom. The gravity equation estimated subsequently allows one to consider the case of BREXIT and the broader role of EU membership and other variables. Looking at the period from 1985 to 2012 for a dataset which contains 34 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) dyadic fixed estimations take into account a broad set of approaches and variables. Besides the traditional variables of the EU/EU single-market membership of the source country and of the host country, we further consider the role of trade openness as well as corporate tax rates and the ratio of inward FDI stock to total capital stock. The analysis shows that trade openness is a variable which can be largely replaced by the inward FDI stock/capital stock ratio so that gravity FDI modeling with a strong emphasis on trade openness is likely to overstate the role of trade and to understate the role of relative FDI accumulation effects. The implication for BREXIT analysis is that the UK will face three impulses for FDI inflows: (1) leaving the EU single market will strongly reduce FDI inflows; (2) if foreign ownership in UK capital stock should strongly increase in the run-up to the BREXIT year 2019, part of the dampening effects of leaving the EU will be mitigated by the increase of the FDI stock/capital stock ratio, which in turn is likely to reflect a Froot–Stein effect related to real pound depreciation for 2016–2018; (3) to the extent that the UK government will want to reinforce output growth through higher FDI inflows, a reduction of corporate taxation could generate high effects but could also stimulate a downward international corporate tax reduction game. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets)

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9 pages, 1558 KiB

Article

Brexit and Uncertainty in Financial Markets

by Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis Gil-Alana and Tommaso Trani

Int. J. Financial Stud. 2018, 6(1), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6010021 - 11 Feb 2018

Cited by 13 |Viewed by 8464

Abstract

This paper applies long-memory techniques (both parametric and semi-parametric) to examine whether Brexit has led to any significant changes in the degree of persistence of the FTSE (Financial Times Stock Index) 100 Implied Volatility Index (IVI) and of the British pound’s implied volatilities [...] Read more.

This paper applies long-memory techniques (both parametric and semi-parametric) to examine whether Brexit has led to any significant changes in the degree of persistence of the FTSE (Financial Times Stock Index) 100 Implied Volatility Index (IVI) and of the British pound’s implied volatilities (IVs) vis-à-vis the main currencies traded in the FOREX (foreign exchange market), namely the euro, the US dollar and the Japanese yen. We split the sample to compare the stochastic properties of the series under investigation before and after the Brexit referendum, and find an increase in the degree of persistence in all cases except for the British pound-yen IV, whose persistence has declined after Brexit. These findings highlight the importance of completing swiftly the negotiations with the European Union (EU) to achieve an appropriate Brexit deal. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets)

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Impact of Brexit on Financial Markets (2024)

FAQs

How has Brexit affected financial markets? ›

A key point of the referendum was for the UK to become less reliant on EU trade and open up trading alliances with new countries. However, between 2018 and 2021, there was an 18% decrease in financial services exports to the EU, with only a 4% increase in exports to non-EU countries to offset it.

How does Brexit affect the stock market? ›

Brexits had an immediate adverse effect on the liquidity of non-US stocks, particularly from the UK and EU. The US stocks displayed a higher sensitivity to Brexit-related news than non-US-UK-EU stocks. Although short-lived, Brexit' impact lasted longer for UK stocks than other EU stocks.

What impact has Brexit had on the economy? ›

The new report, by Cambridge Econometrics commissioned by City Hall (1), also shows that London's economy has shrunk by more than £30billion. The average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit, the report reveals.

How has Brexit affected trading? ›

UK goods exports to the EU fell sharply in January 2021 after the end of the Brexit transition period, before recovering strongly in February 2021. Goods exports to the EU remain below their pre-pandemic/Brexit level, however: in 2023, goods exports to the EU were 11% below their 2019 level in real terms.

Is Brexit responsible for recession? ›

The majority of economists believe that Brexit has harmed the UK's economy and reduced its real per capita income in the long term, and the referendum itself damaged the economy.

How has Brexit affected investment? ›

A key driver for economic growth, business investment was now only 6% higher in real terms than in the second quarter of 2016, when the Brexit referendum was held, Ramsden said. “That's less than 1% a year. Over that time, US business investment has gone up by over 25%,” he said.

What impact did Brexit have on businesses? ›

New analysis released today (Wednesday 15 March, 2023) by the University of Sussex's UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO), reveals that UK businesses are struggling with increased costs, labour and skill issues and supply shortages and issues following the UK's departure from the European Union.

Did Brexit cause inflation? ›

Our calculations indicate that the prices for UK households and consumers increased by 0.6% due to higher trade policy uncertainty generated by the Brexit referendum outcome.

How successful was Brexit? ›

Britain's Brexit Success

UK exports are growing – reaching £870 billion in the 12 months to November 2023, and services exports are at an all-time high03. Since the referendum, the UK economy has grown faster than Germany, Italy, and Japan and at a similar rate to France (end-Q2 2016 – Q3 2023)04.

What sectors are most affected by Brexit? ›

A study by the think tanks Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe suggests that there are 330,000 fewer workers in the UK as a result of Brexit. That may only be 1% of the total workforce - but sectors such as transport, hospitality and retail have been particularly hard hit.

Is Brexit a trade barrier? ›

Not only did Brexit impose a higher cost of trade with the EU, but participation in European supply chains has also been made harder as it is now more difficult to qualify for FTA preferences. Bilateral FTAs are therefore less useful for the UK after Brexit.

How does Brexit affect marketing? ›

The impact

Initially, Brexit is likely to have some impact on consumer spending as the price of imports from Europe rise. European partners may even choose to work with companies still part of the single market in order to avoid paying fees or taxes and to avoid added bureaucracy.

How did Brexit affect a business? ›

One of the negative impacts of Brexit on businesses are tariffs on British exports. Thanks to a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU, UK businesses can trade tariff-free if those imported or exported UK goods meet specific requirements.

How has Brexit affected the currency? ›

Until 2016, the majority of UK non-EU exports were invoiced in the 'producer' currency, the British pound. However, in the aftermath of the June 2016 Brexit referendum and the subsequent depreciation of the pound, the share of non-EU UK exports invoiced in pounds started to sharply decrease.

What is the impact of Brexit on foreign direct investment in the UK? ›

Leaving the European Union (EU) would reduce flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the UK by more than a fifth, damaging productivity and lowering people's incomes.

How was Europe affected by the financial crisis? ›

The crisis had significant adverse economic effects and labour market effects, with unemployment rates in Greece and Spain reaching 27%, and was blamed for subdued economic growth, not only for the entire eurozone but for the entire European Union.

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