As the 1981 song by English punk rock band The Clash puts it so succinctly: "Should I stay or should I go"?
The consequences of that decision could be deadly when it comes to deciding whether to evacuate ahead of a hurricane.
A survey by AAA reveals some worrisome data, including a finding that 1 in 4 Floridians would ignore evacuation warnings.
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Here's what the survey revealed and what you should know about evacuations, including how to find out your evacuation zone.
2024 Atlantic hurricane expected to be extremely active
Every forecast released so far is predicting a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, which encompasses the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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Two factors especially have meteorologists concerned: extremely warm water temperatures and the presence of La Niña. Both are fuel for the development of tropical cyclones.
Colorado State Universityis predictingFlorida has a 96% forecast probability of being impacted by a named stormand a 75% chance of being impacted by a hurricane this year.
The National Hurricane Center is predicting:
- 17-25 named storms
- 8-13 hurricanes
- 4-7 major hurricanes
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
With predictions for an active hurricane season, forecasters and emergency agencies are emphasizing people should make preparations and plans now. Are residents taking their advice? Here's what AAA found.
What is your level of concern regarding the upcoming 2024 hurricane season compared to last season?
- More concerned: Overall, 24%; in Florida, 29%
- Same level of concern: 69%; in Florida, 67%
- Less concerned: 7%; in Florida, 4%
Would you evacuate your home in the event of a hurricane if you were warned to evacuate?
The AAA survey of 5,000 people found that in Florida, 73% said they would evacuate, while 27% said they would not leave their homes.
Compare responses of Florida residents to those elsewhere:
- Florida: Yes, 73%; No, 27%
- Georgia: Yes, 85%; No, 15%
- North Carolina: Yes, 82%; No 18%
- South Carolina: Yes, 79%; No 21%
"Staying in the path of a potentially deadly storm is just not worth the risk," said Mark Jenkins, public relations manager for AAA.
"Take steps now to develop an evacuation plan for your family and pets. If you’re worried about property damage, contact your insurance advisor. Having adequate coverage will give you the peace-of-mind in knowing that anything damaged while you’re gone can be repaired or replaced."
"Many times evacuations are ordered at the last minute, leaving little to no time to prepare," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "As part of your emergency plan, you and your family should have several evacuation routes and options that can help get you out of harm's way regardless of the potential hazard.
"If you are specifically ordered to evacuate, it is vital you do so immediately."
Reasons Florida residents would ignore evacuation orders
- 33% − Want to stay in case there’s damage to their home or property that they can fix.
- 29% − Believe the storm will turn away from their direction.
- 24% − Don’t know where to go.
- 23% − Financial reasons (e.g., can’t afford a hotel).
- 20% − Can’t bring their pets/Don’t have a safe option for them.
- 19% − Fear of looting after the storm.
- 6% − Price of gasoline is too expensive
- 6% − Myself or family member is unable to travel
- 4% − Afraid I'll lose my job
- 16% − Other
What is the lowest category of hurricane that would make you decide to evacuate your home?
If Florida residents said they would evacuate, they were then asked what was the lowest category of hurricane that would prompt them to leave.
- Category 1: 7%
- Category 2: 18%
- Category 3: 25%
- Category 4: 27%
- Category 5: 12%
- Don't know: 11%
Do you make advanced preparations for hurricane season or severe weather?
- Florida: Yes, 77%; No, 23%
- Georgia: Yes, 50%; No, 50%
- North Carolina: Yes, 63%; No, 37%
- South Carolina: Yes, 56%; No, 55%
Which of the following best describes your level of preparedness regarding the 2024 hurricane season?
In Florida:
- 39%. Very prepared. I will monitor storms and make advanced preparations in anticipation of hurricanes/severe weather
- 57%. Somewhat prepared. I will make preparations only if there is a hurricane/severe weather approaching my area
- 4%. Not at all prepared. I do not plan to take any precautions for hurricanes/severe weather
Florida responses compared to other states:
Very prepared:
- Florida: 39%
- Georgia: 30%
- North Carolina: 28%
- South Carolina: 26%
Somewhat prepared:
- Florida: 57%
- Georgia: 53%
- North Carolina: 59%
- South Carolina: 59%
Not at all prepared:
- Florida: 4%
- Georgia: 17%
- North Carolina: 13%
- South Carolina: 15%
Which of the following have you already done in preparation for hurricane season?
Here's the percentage of Florida residents who have made any preparations so far:
- Bought supplies: 58%
- Bought extra water/food: 50%
- Created an emergency plan: 34%
- Prepared property: 35%
- Obtained important documents/information: 31%
- Reviewed my insurance coverage: 27%
- Reviewed my evacuation route: 24%
- Other: 1%
- None, I have not made any advanced preparations: 17%
Should you evacuate?
"If you are in an ordered evacuation zone, low-lying flood area or in a mobile home, you should follow all evacuation orders," according to the Florida Department of Emergency Management.
"However, if you are not in an ordered evacuation zone, low-lying flood prone area, mobile home or unsafe structure, then it may be safer to stay in your home.
"Alwaysheed the advice and orders of local officials during a storm."
Are you in an evacuation zone? Here's how to tell
TheFlorida Division of Emergency Managementhas a website to determine whether you live in an evacuation zone and what zone it is.
Go to thewebsiteand enter your address.
If your home is in one of the colored areas, these are flood zones where you may be asked to evacuate by local officials.
Evacuation zones:How do you know if you live in an evacuation zone? We explain how to find your zone
What are the different evacuation zone colors on the map?
Typically, Zone A is the most vulnerable and the most likely to be asked to evacuate first. Zone F is most likely to evacuate last.
Greatest threat from hurricanes is storm surge
The greatest threat to life comes from storm surge, not winds, according to officials with theNational Hurricane CenterandEmergency Management.
If you live in an evacuation zone, flood-prone area or mobile home and local officials issue an evacuation order, plan to leave your home.
