How will we know we're in a recession? (2024)

How will we know we're in a recession? (1)

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This chart illustrates the average total return of the S&P 500 Index in the months following two consecurive quarters of negative GDP growth. Index returns include reinvestment of capital gains and dividends, if any, but do not reflect any fees or expenses. This chart is not intended to imply any future performance of an investment product. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Please see disclosures for index definitions. Source: Bloomberg, S&P 500 Index total annual return, 1/1/1953-6/30/2022.

How will we know we're in a recession? (2)

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.This chart illustrates the cumulative percentage return of a hypothetical investment made in the S&P 500 Index during periods of economic expansion and recession. Index returns include reinvestment of capital gains and dividends, if any, but do not reflect any fees or expenses. This chart is not intended to imply any future performance of an investment product. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Please see disclosures for index definitions. Source: Bloomberg, S&P 500 Index total annual return, 1/1/1950-12/31/2022; recession and expansion dates defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Keep in mind that investing involves risk. The value of your investment will fluctuate over time, and you may gain or lose money.

Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent U.S. equity performance.

Neither asset allocation nor diversification ensures a profit or protects against loss.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Generally, among asset classes stocks are more volatile than bonds or short-term instruments and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Although the bond market is also volatile, lower-quality debt securities including leveraged loans generally offer higher yields compared to investment grade securities, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes. Foreign markets can be more volatile than U.S. markets due to increased risks of adverse issuer, political, market or economic developments, all of which are magnified in emerging markets.

The views expressed in the foregoing commentary are prepared by Strategic Advisers LLC. based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The information and opinions presented are current only as of the date of writing, without regard to the date on which you may access this information. All opinions and estimates are subject to change at any time without notice.

This material may not be reproduced or redistributed without the express written permission of Strategic Advisers LLC.

Optional investment management services provided for a fee through Fidelity Personal and Workplace Advisors LLC (FPWA), a registered investment adviser and a Fidelity Investments company. Discretionary portfolio management provided by its affiliate, Strategic Advisers LLC, a registered investment adviser. These services are provided for a fee.

Brokerage services provided by Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC (FBS), and custodial and related services provided by National Financial Services LLC (NFS), each a member NYSE and SIPC. FPWA, Strategic Advisers, FBS, and NFS are Fidelity Investments companies.

Fidelity Investments® provides investment products through Fidelity Distributors Company LLC; clearing, custody, or other brokerage services through National Financial Services LLC or Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC; and institutional advisory services through Fidelity Institutional Wealth Adviser LLC.

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How will we know we're in a recession? (2024)
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