Here’s Why Flour Prices Are Expected to Skyrocket in 2024 (2024)

2023 hasn’t been a good year for food inflation. From eggs to oranges, many kitchen basics have skyrocketed in price over the past few months. Unfortunately, it seems as if another popular pantry staple will be hit hard in 2024: flour.

Here is everything you need to know about the potential flour shortage, including why it’s happening, when you can expect it, how much prices may increase, and my own personal tips as a food writer and bread baker for saving your precious dough.

Why Are Flour Prices Going to Rise?

In the United States, we grow three main varieties of wheat: hard red winter, hard red spring and soft red wheats. The first two classes are grown in the South and Central states, which have experienced extreme drought conditions over the past year, especially Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas.

Because of this widespread drought, a whopping 75% of the country’s wheat crops are currently being grown in drought conditions, according to the USDA. This means that huge portions of American wheat crops are dying, and those that are surviving the heat are often inedible or low-quality. Indeed, this year marks a record low in wheat production for the United States. And when any product is this short in supply with sustained demand, prices tend to skyrocket.

When Are Flour Prices Going to Rise?

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Given the current agricultural cycles from winter and early spring, experts are predicting that flour prices will rise in 2024. It’s worth noting that there is still a chance that the third varietal of wheat—soft red wheat—will pull through and lessen the blow. Currently, it’s too early to call, but as of April 11, “nearly all major soft red winter wheat areas were drought-free,” according to Food Business News. While this can’t save flour prices from increasing entirely, it may be able to lessen the intensity of a retail price hike.

How Much Are Flour Prices Going to Rise?

Again, experts aren’t quite sure yet. However, one potential predictor of future price increases is the war in Ukraine. When Russia invaded the “breadbasket” country in late February this year, flour prices increased by about 55% in early March, according to AP News. While this price increase was due to Ukrainian farmers being unable to tend their fields, the retail impact of it may mirror that of a future drought-induced shortage.

How Can I Get Flour for Cheaper as Prices Rise?

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Now, as an avid bread baker, I have experienced the rising flour prices firsthand. Standard bags of flour that used to cost me just $4 are now ringing in at $7 or $8 (to be fair, I live in the Bay Area, one of America’s most expensive regions). Still, I consider myself a bit of a flour-purchasing expert—here are some of the tricks I use to save money without sacrificing my precious baking.

Buy in Bulk

Try to buy flour in bulk, instead of in smaller individual bags whenever possible. While the first purchase may be more expensive, it tends to be cheaper in the long run. Try your local supermarket’s bulk section, or box stores that specialize in bulk quantities, like Costco or Sam’s Club.

Shop Online

Many bread bakers swear by purchasing flour online. Amazon offers 5-pound and 10-pound bags for half the price of other retailers. Additionally, you can buy flour wholesale, as a bakery would, to really rack up savings. Some solid providers are Ardent Mills and Webstaurant Store.

Store it Properly

Finally, if you’re buying flour in large quantities, you have to make sure it doesn’t go to waste. Light degrades flour, so store it somewhere dark and cool—like your refrigerator! Many professional bakers swear by freezing or at least refrigerating their flours to extend their shelf lives. This is especially important for whole wheat varieties, which go off quicker than all-purpose flours. Additionally, always use an air-tight storage containerso that your flour doesn’t go stale.

Whole Wheat Flour Recipes We Love to Bake

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Slow-Cooker Cinnamon Roll

Come home to the heavenly aroma of fresh-baked cinnamon rolls! This better-for-you version tastes just as decadent as a regular cinnamon roll, but it smartly sneaks in some whole grains. —Nick Iverson, Denver, Colorado

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Whole Wheat Strawberry ShortcakesNothing says spring better than a fresh strawberry shortcake. It is heavenly. My mother and I usually make this with strawberries we picked ourselves. —Sarah Hatter, Brodhead, Wisconsin

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French Toast CookiesI created these soft, sparkly cookies because my sister loves cinnamon French toast covered in maple syrup. In the case of these cookies, bigger is definitely better! I like to use white whole wheat flour, but any whole wheat flour will work.—Mary Shenk, Dekalb, Illinois

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Honey Whole Wheat Pan Rolls Recipe photo by Taste of Home

Honey Whole Wheat Pan RollsWith their pleasant wheat flavor and a honey of a glaze, these rolls impress my guests. Every time I take them to potluck dinners, I come home with an empty pan. —Nancye Thompson, Paducah, Kentucky

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Whole Wheat Blueberry Muffins Recipe photo by Taste of Home

Whole Wheat Blueberry MuffinsWhole wheat flour gives nutritious flair to these healthy blueberry muffins. Fresh from the oven, they’ll warm you up on cold, winter days. —Sheila Siem, Calumet, Michigan

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Swedish Apple PieThis decadent Swedish apple pie serves up homemade flavor in every bite. This is a perfect snack with coffee or as an after-dinner treat. —Sarah Klier, Grand Rapids, Michigan

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Homemade Honey Grahams Recipe photo by Taste of Home

Homemade Honey GrahamsThe way my boys eat them, I would spend a fortune on honey graham crackers at the grocery store. So I decided to make a homemade version that is less processed—and less expensive. These are wonderful, although they still don't last long. —Crystal Jo Bruns, Iliff, Colorado

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Taste of Home

Whole Grain Banana PancakesMy kids love homemade banana bread, so why not make it in pancake form? These freeze well for a special breakfast any day. —Ally Billhorn, Wilton, Iowa

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We lightened up biscuits and gravy to curb our guilt for eating them the day after having pancakes. Here’s a terrific homemade recipe for brunch guests. —Ian Cliffe, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

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Taste of Home

Apple Cider DoughnutsA batch of these apple cider doughnuts will have you feeling like it's peak fall season, no matter the time of year.

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Taste of Home

Beef Pot PieFor more than a dozen years, this has been the No. 1 dish to serve company at our house. So far, everyone has given it a thumbs-up rating. —Hannah McDowell, Penns Creek, Pennsylvania

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Whole Wheat Pizza DoughThis freezer-friendly whole wheat pizza dough recipe is easy to make and ready to use in a flash. All you need is your favorite pizza sauce and toppings.

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Triple-Ginger Gingersnaps Recipe photo by Taste of Home

Triple-Ginger GingersnapsThese crunchy treats feature fresh, ground and crystallized ginger, making them a bit more special than the traditional cookie. They are always a hit around the holidays. —Jessica Follen, Waunakee, Wisconsin

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Carrot Honey LoafAs a busy health-care professional and mom, one of the most meaningful gifts I give to the people I love is my time and skills in the kitchen. I have been baking since I was 7 years old and while I still am an avid baker, raising three children, caring for three dogs and working full-time leaves me with little energy! My family appreciates all my efforts and this is a favorite extra "gift" I give people for special events like a housewarming or welcoming a new baby. It is especially good toasted with butter. —Krystal Horudko, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada

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Dark Chocolate Chip Zucchini Bread Recipe photo by Taste of Home

Dark Chocolate Chip Zucchini BreadA colleague brought this in one day for someone’s birthday. I grow zucchini in my garden so I had a lot of opportunities to experiment with the recipe. My mother-in-law loves it, and not just because it's pretty good for you! —Sally Newton, Smethport, Pennsylvania

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Yogurt Yeast Rolls Recipe photo by Taste of Home

Yogurt Yeast RollsPeople tend to snap up these fluffy, golden rolls, in a hurry whenever I take them to a potluck. It's a nice contribution since rolls are easy to transport, and one batch goes a long way. — Carol Forcum, Marion, Illinois

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Sesame Wheat BraidsWhen I started making this bread, my husband and our six children liked it so much that I was baking every day! I was thrilled when the judges at our county fair gave these braids both a blue ribbon and a best of show award! —Nancy Montgomery, Hartville, Ohio

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Almond Berry Pancakes Recipe photo by Taste of Home

Almond Berry PancakesWhole wheat flour and two kinds of berries add an extra helping of nutrition to these hearty pancakes. It’s a breakfast I feel good about eating. —Sarah Haengel, Bowie, Maryland

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