Home / Sector / Materials Shares / Here is the latest lithium price forecast through to 2027
Will lithium rebound any time soon? Let's find out what Goldman Sachs is forecasting.
Posted by
James Mickleboro has been a Motley Fool contributor since late 2015. After studying economics at university back home in the United Kingdom, James came to live in Australia and managed to land a job at an Australian fund manager. This was the start of a love affair with Australian equities and he hasn't looked back since. James is part of the CFA Institute's Chartered Financial Analyst program and hopes it teaches him how to become an astute investor which allows him to help others with their own investing. Outside of reading and researching he spends many a late night watching the English Premier League and Seinfeld reruns.
Published
It certainly has been a tough 12 months for ASXlithium stocks.
During this time, the likes of Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM), Core Lithium Ltd(ASX: CXO),IGO Ltd(ASX: IGO),Liontown Resources Ltd(ASX: LTR), andPilbara Minerals Ltd(ASX: PLS), Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) have all recorded sizeable declines while the market as a whole has charged higher.
For example, Core Lithium and Sayona Mining shares are both down around 80% since this time last year, whereas IGO and Liontown shares have lost approximately half of their value over the same period.
Investors have been hitting the sell button in response to falling lithium prices. This has been driven by increasing supply of the white metal, particularly in the China market.
But where next for lithium prices? Will they recover to previous levels in the near future? Let's take a look and see what analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting for three widely used lithium types – lithium carbonate, lithium spodumene, and lithium hydroxide.
Lithium prices
Firstly, let's have a little reminder of what lithium prices were commanding on average in 2023.
- Lithium carbonate – China: US$32,694 per tonne
- Lithium hydroxide – China: US$32,452 per tonne
- Spodumene 6%: US$3,712 per tonne
Now we will take a quick look at the current spot prices of these metals compared to what they were commanding back in January. The current prices are as follows:
- Lithium carbonate – China: US$13,012 per tonne (January: US$11,867)
- Lithium hydroxide – China: US$9,591 per tonne (January: US$9,899)
- Spodumene 6%: US$1,210 per tonne (January: US$1,000)
Forecasts through to 2027
Unfortunately for investors of ASX lithium stocks, Goldman Sachs is not expecting a big improvement in lithium prices in the coming years.
Lithium carbonate – China:
For lithium carbonate, the broker is forecasting the following through to 2027:
- 2024: US$11.106 per tonne
- 2025: US$11,000 per tonne
- 2026: US$13,323 per tonne
- 2027: US$15,646 per tonne
- Long-term: US$15,500 per tonne
Lithium hydroxide – China:
It will be a similar story for lithium hydroxide according to the broker. It is forecasting the following:
- 2024: US$9,849 per tonne
- 2025: US$12,500 per tonne
- 2026: US$14,323 per tonne
- 2027: US$16,146 per tonne
- Long-term: US$15,500 per tonne
Spodumene 6%:
Finally, the broker is expecting spodumene prices to remain in and around current levels for the foreseeable future. It has pencilled in the following for the coming years:
- 2024: US$928 per tonne
- 2025: US$800 per tonne
- 2026: US$978 per tonne
- 2027: US$1,155 per tonne
- Long-term: US$1,150 per tonne
