Gold prices are at an all-time high—but experts like Warren Buffett don't always recommend investing (2024)

Bitcoin and stocks aren't the only assets hitting all-time highs. If you want to buy an ounce of gold, it will currently cost you more than ever, at more than $2,250 an ounce. That puts it up about 38% from its last low point in 2022.

And even though gold prices are at an all-time high, many market watchers are still taking a shine to it. While the current economic scenario has been good for stocks, it's been "even more bullish for gold," Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research wrote in a recent note.

But even with a favorable outlook, gold should play a very different role in your portfolio than stocks or bonds, investing experts say.

Because it tends to move in different ways than more traditional investments, gold may be an appropriate way to diversify for some investors — but don't make it a major building block of your portfolio. Billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett is known to avoid it for a reason.

Why gold is up and could continue to rise

Different investors cite different reasons for owning gold. For one, it has a reputation to maintain or increase in value during periods of inflation, though that track record is spotty. For another, it's considered a store of value should paper money become significantly devalued — after all, gold has been considered currency for millennia.

It's also generally expected to hold up in so-called "risk off" markets, when investors tend to flee from riskier fare, like stocks, into perceived safe-haven assets, including gold and bonds. That means investors tend to pick up more gold in the lead-up to and during recessions and bear markets.

That makes the recent uptrend in gold a little bit strange, says Ford O'Neill, co-portfolio manager at the Fidelity Strategic Real Return Fund, a mutual fund strategy focused on shielding investors from inflation risk.

"It's been anything but [a risk off market] since October of last year," he says. "I would argue we've had what I would call an 'everything rally,' where obviously quite a few assets have done quite well."

Essentially, he says, gold is doing well because investors are boosting the price of just about everything, from stocks to bonds to cryptocurrency.

In addition to a rising tide, a weakening U.S. dollar and falling bond rates have boosted gold prices of late, says Hayes. At lower rates, bonds and cash accounts "have less of a competitive advantage" over gold, he tells CNBC Make It.

And with the Federal Reserve projected to begin cutting interest rates this year, the outlook for gold is growing rosier. The lower interest rates go, the lower the opportunity cost for investors to hold gold, which pays no interest.

"We continue to be bullish on gold," says Hayes.

What to know before buying gold

If you want to add gold to your portfolio, the easiest way is to buy an ETF which tracks the price of the yellow stuff. Doing so allows you to track gold's performance relative to the rest of your portfolio and keeps you from having to shell out big bucks to own physical gold.

But whether you hold it in your brokerage account or stash coins and bars in your safe, gold is an asset that doesn't produce anything. That's why the world's most famous long-term investor never touches the stuff.

In his 2011 letter to shareholders, Buffett pointed out that for the price of acquiring all the world's gold, an investor could buy all of the cropland in the U.S. with enough money leftover to buy ExxonMobil 16 times over. Come back a century later, and one of those options will have delivered a bounty of crops and ample dividends. The other would still be a large quantity of gold.

Over the past 15 years, an ETF tracking the spot price of gold has returned an annualized 5.5% compared with a 15.3% return in the S&P 500.

As for inflation, gold's record is a mixed bag. Despite steady inflation since 1988, gold has submitted a negative return in 18 calendar years, including 2021 and 2022 — years with particularly high inflation.

Some investors like to hold a small allocation of gold because it provides peace of mind when other assets are in decline.

"When everything else is going down the tubes, gold is the one thing that's likely going to do well," William Bernstein, the author of "The Four Pillars of Investing," recently told CNBC. "Home insurance also has a high return when you have a fire."

But over the long term, you're better off with assets that will grow and deliver returns at a compounding rate. Take it from Buffett.

"True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production," Buffett wrote in 2011. "Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end."

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Gold prices are at an all-time high—but experts like Warren Buffett don't always recommend investing (1)

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Gold prices are at an all-time high—but experts like Warren Buffett don't always recommend investing (2024)

FAQs

Why doesn't Warren Buffett like gold? ›

Buffett therefore doesn't see any utility in owning gold because it can't produce things. Stocks can grow earnings and profits and pay dividends, and farmland produces fruits and vegetables that can be used and sold, but gold just sits there, waiting for someone to come along and decide to pay more for it.

Are gold prices at all time high? ›

After hovering near $2,300 an ounce earlier this month, gold prices have been climbing over the last few days, and the price of gold is now sitting at $2,439.98 per ounce (as of May 20, 2024). That's up by over 14% from the under-$2,100 per ounce price we saw in March — and is a new record-high for the precious metal.

Why should you not invest in gold? ›

There are several potential risks to investing in gold, including: Price volatility: The price of gold can be volatile, and it may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time.

Is gold not keeping up with inflation? ›

But it's been evident for many years that inflation is unable to explain gold's bull and bear markets, and the past several years provide yet more evidence. The CPI's 12-month rate of change topped out at over 9% in mid-2022 and is barely one-third that today. Yet gold is $500 higher today than then.

Do rich people invest in gold? ›

The average UHNWI holds about 2% of their net worth in gold. While that's more than they keep in cryptocurrencies (1%), it's less than they keep in any other asset classes. In fact, wealthy investors even put more money into “investments of passion” such as fine art, wine, and cars than they do in gold.

Why is everyone buying up gold? ›

Gold is valuable due to its rarity, durability, and historical significance as a medium of exchange and store of value. It tends to hold its value during economic turbulence, and investors appreciate its potential for a safe haven. It is also used in jewelry and electronics, so there are some real-world uses of gold.

What will gold be worth in 5 years? ›

What will gold be worth in 5 years? Two Jakarta-based commodity analysts forecast that the price of gold could reach as high as $3,000 per ounce in the next five years. While they remain bullish, they cautioned that many factors could affect the price of gold within this timeframe.

Will gold be worth more in 10 years? ›

Gold is generally not prone to big price swings or high volatility, but it typically keeps growing alongside its utility. This means that forecasting future prices of gold for the next ten years is expected to indicate an increase in value, potentially resulting in profits for those making these predictions.

Why is China buying so much gold? ›

Beijing is buying up gold to diversify its reserve funds and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar, long considered the most important currency to hold in reserve. China has been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings for more than a decade.

What does Dave Ramsey say about gold? ›

I'd stop investing in gold and silver completely. I don't put money in precious metals at all, because they have a lousy long-term track record. — Dave Ramsey is CEO of Ramsey Solutions. He has authored seven best-selling books, including The Total Money Makeover.

Can the US government confiscate your gold? ›

Of course it is possible; it has been done before and governments in times of stress simply change the laws. As you can see above, gold bullion was forced to be sold to the government in 1933. Then in 1974, that executive order was repealed.

Is there a better investment than gold? ›

Stocks have generally performed better than gold over the years, but there can be exceptions. Looking back 20 years, for example, gold has outperformed the S&P 500.

Is gold overpriced? ›

Yet according to the Erb/Harvey model, gold is as overvalued now as it was in 2012. The model is based on the ratio of gold's price to the U.S. consumer-price index. Erb and Harvey note that if gold were a perfect inflation hedge, this ratio would stay constant.

Will gold ever lose its value? ›

Fluctuations in financial markets can also cause volatility in the price of gold. However, because so many investors purchase gold as a safe-haven asset, its value remains relatively constant. Long-term investments in the precious metal are unlikely to experience losses.

Does gold do well in a recession? ›

Due to its reputation for being a safe-haven asset, gold tends to perform well during a recession. For example, when the stock market collapsed in 2007, investment demand for gold spiked and continued to rise, and gold doubled in value between 2007 and 2011.

Why does Warren Buffet not like crypto? ›

Perhaps the most famous value investor of all time, Warren Buffett is strongly against Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, saying, "You can't value Bitcoin because it's not a value-producing asset." Buffett and his holding company Berkshire Hathaway Inc. have been well-known for their investments in stable and ...

What is the truth about investing in gold? ›

It will often lose money during these periods as investors sell gold to put their money in the stock market and other growth assets. In the long run, gold has a significantly lower average annual return than stocks. From 1971 to 2024, the stock market delivered average annual returns of 10.70%.

Is gold a hedge against stocks? ›

Gold has been an inconsistent inflation hedge, but there may still be benefits to holding a small amount of the yellow metal in your portfolio. Gold has historically had a low or even negative correlation to both stocks and bonds, suggesting it offers value as a tool of diversification.

Why doesn't Warren Buffett invest in real estate? ›

Buffett avoids real estate investments due to precise pricing, lack of competitive edge, complex management and corporation tax disadvantages. However, he considers investing in real estate during crises or via REITs, offering diversification, liquidity and expert management.

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