Does inflation expectation affect banks' performances? Evidence from Indian banking sector (2024)

The study intends to evaluate the impact of inflation expectation on the performance of listed commercial banks in India during 2005–2021. Inflation expectation is considered as a direct policy tool by the policymakers for stability of the economy. The study explores how inflation expectation affects the performance indicators of the Indian banking industry while controlling for a wide range of bank-specific factors.

The study applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) on a panel sample of 27 listed bank to analyse the impact of inflation expectation on banking sector performance. The data on inflation expectation are obtained from the household inflation expectation survey introduced in India by the Reserve Bank of India in 2005. Return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and Tobin's Q have been considered as the banking performance indicators in this study.

Empirical results exhibit that inflation expectation is instrumental in deciding the banking sector's performance. Inflation expectation has been found to have a significant and positive impact on accounting-based measures of banking performance. At the same time, it shows negative impact on the marketing-based measure.

The study gives a clear picture about how inflation expectation affects the banking performance and the monetary policy of the country. The study provides crucial insights to develop strategic decisions for the Indian banking sector. The adoption of proper macroeconomic policies, taking into account inflation expectation levels, is instrumental in enhancing bank's performance and in achieving economic growth.

This study contributes to the growing body of literature on the impact of inflationary conditions on banking performance. The originality lies in capturing the role of inflation expectation solely in determining banking sector performance.