What is Deere Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?
As of today (2024-09-16), Deere's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $221.16.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Deere's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Deere is -78.46%.
The industry rank for Deere's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:
DE's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the industry.
Industry Median: 0.885
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.
Deere Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data
The historical data trend for Deere's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* Premium members only.
Deere Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart
Deere Annual Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Oct14 | Oct15 | Oct16 | Oct17 | Oct18 | Oct19 | Oct20 | Oct21 | Oct22 | Oct23 | ||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -0.04 | 246.22 | - | - | - |
Deere Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Oct19 | Jan20 | Apr20 | Jul20 | Oct20 | Jan21 | Apr21 | Jul21 | Oct21 | Jan22 | Apr22 | Jul22 | Oct22 | Jan23 | Apr23 | Jul23 | Oct23 | Jan24 | Apr24 | Jul24 | |
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | - | - | - | - | - |
Competitive Comparison of Deere's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery subindustry, Deere's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Deere's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Industry
For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry and Industrials sector, Deere's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Deere's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
Deere Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 3.64%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Deere's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was -2.70%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $17.714.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Deere's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | = | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | {[(1+g1)/(1+d) | + | (1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10] |
+ | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10 | * | [(1+g2)/(1+d) | + | (1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]} |
set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | = | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | {[x | + | x^2 | + | ... | + | x^10] | + | x^10 | * | [y | + | y^2 | + | ... | + | y^10]} |
= | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | [x | * | (1-x^10) | / | (1-x) | + | x^10 | * | y | * | (1-y^10) | / | (1-y)] | |||||
= | 17.714 | * | 12.485 | |||||||||||||||||
= | 221.16 |
Margin of Safety (FCF Based) | = | (Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | - | Current Price) | / | Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) |
= | (221.16 | - | 394.68) | / | 221.16 | |
= | -78.46 % |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Deere(NYSE:DE) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about the DCF model:
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Deere Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Deere's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Deere Business Description
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM »STOCK LIST »Industrials » » » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Comparable Companies
PCAR CAT CNH OSK AGCO TEX ALG REVG LNN HY OSTO:VOLV A XTER:DTG TSE:6301 TSE:6201 XAMS:EXO OSTO:EPI A SHSE:600031 TSE:6326 SZSE:000425 BOM:500477
Traded in Other Exchanges
DE:Mexico 1DE:Italy 0R2P:UK DCO0:Germany DCO:Germany DCO:Germany DCO:Germany DCO:Germany DEER:Canada DEEC34:Brazil DEER:Austria DE:Argentina
Address
One John Deere Place, Moline, IL, USA, 61265
Website
Deere is the world's leading manufacturer of agricultural equipment, producing some of the most recognizable machines in the heavy machinery industry. The company is divided into four reportable segments: production and precision agriculture, small agriculture and turf, construction and forestry, and John Deere Capital. Its products are available through an extensive dealer network, which includes over 2,000 dealer locations in North America and approximately 3,700 locations globally. John Deere Capital provides retail financing for machinery to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers, which increases the likelihood of Deere product sales.
Executives
Deanna M Kovar | officer: Pres Ag & Turf, Sml Ag & Turf | ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Ryan D Campbell | officer: Senior Vice President & CFO | ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Laurence Neil Hunn | director | 100 NORTH POINT CENTER EAST, SUITE 200, ALPHARETTA GA 30022 |
Reed Cory J | officer: Pres., John Deere Financial | DEERE & COMPANY, ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
May John C Ii | officer: President, Ag Solutions & CIO | DEERE & COMPANY, ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Pentz Markwart Von | officer: Pres.Ag Div.Europe,Africa,SA | DEERE & COMPANY, ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Tami A. Erwin | director | 1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
Jahmy J Hindman | officer: Sr VP & Chief Technology Offcr | ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Marc A Howze | officer: Sr. VP & Chief Admin Offcr | DEERE & COMPANY, ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Justin Ryan Rose | officer: Pres, L.C. Sol, Cus Sup & S.M. | ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Joshua A Jepsen | officer: Senior V.P. & CFO | ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Felecia J. Pryor | officer: Snr V.P. & Chief People Offcr | 3850 W. HAMLIN ROAD, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326 |
John H Stone | officer: Pres., WW Const & For & Pow Sy | C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032 |
Leanne G Caret | director | 1000 WILSON BLVD, ARLINGTON VA 22209 |
Rajesh Kalathur | officer: Sr. VP and CFO | DEERE & COMPANY, ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265 |
Deere Headlines
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