Consumer Price Index - Inflation forecasts [03/09/2024] (2024)

The inflation forecasts from September 2024 until the end of 2025 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until August 2024 from Statbel. These forecasts take into account the futures quotes of 22 August 2024. The oil price should amount to 81 dollars per barrel in 2024 and 74 dollars per barrel in 2025. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.09 dollar per euro in 2024 and 1.13 dollar per euro in 2025.

On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 3.2% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, compared to 4.06% in 2023 and 9.59% in 2022. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 3.3% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, compared to 4.33% in 2023 and 9.25% in 2022.

In April 2024, the pivotal index for social benefits and public sector wages was last exceeded. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the following pivotal index (130.67) should be reached in January 2025. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in February 2025 and public sector wages should follow suit in March 2025.

Next update: 1 October 2024 at 2 p.m.

Conversion coefficients

National consumer price index
To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.

Health index
To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.

National consumer price index (2025)

2025	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Index (base year 2013)	133.89	134.07	134.09	134.24	134.31	134.33	134.71	134.95	134.63	134.88	135.19	135.23
Growth rates (%) (1)	2.93	2.34	1.79	2.40	2.07	1.87	1.43	1.61	1.54	1.54	1.53	1.59

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2025)

2025	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Health index (base year 2013)	134.15	134.30	134.41	134.53	134.57	134.67	135.06	135.29	134.76	135.35	135.43	135.65
Growth rates (%) (1)	3.04	2.56	2.02	2.81	2.40	2.08	1.67	1.77	1.65	1.64	1.63	1.68
Smoothed health index (2)	130.83	131.10	131.39	131.66	131.76	131.85	132.01	132.20	132.25	132.41	132.50	132.59

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2024)

2024	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Index (base year 2013)	130.08	131.01	131.73	131.10	131.58	131.87	132.81	132.81	132.59	132.83	133.15	133.11
Growth rates (%) (1)	1.75	3.20	3.18	3.37	3.36	3.74	3.64	2.86	3.40	3.23	3.31	2.83

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2024)

2024	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Health index (base year 2013)	130.19	130.95	131.75	130.85	131.42	131.92	132.84	132.94	132.57	133.16	133.26	133.41
Growth rates (%) (1)	1.71	3.22	3.09	3.28	3.20	3.80	3.60	3.20	3.96	3.79	3.66	3.00
Smoothed health index (2)	126.56	127.21	127.99	128.32	128.62	128.86	129.12	129.63	129.92	130.22	130.32	130.44

National consumer price index (2023)

2023	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Index (base year 2013)	127.84	126.95	127.67	126.82	127.30	127.11	128.14	129.12	128.23	128.67	128.89	129.45
Growth rates (%) (1)	8.05	6.62	6.67	5.60	5.20	4.15	4.14	4.09	2.39	0.36	0.76	1.35

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2023)

2023	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Health index (base year 2013)	128.00	126.86	127.80	126.70	127.35	127.09	128.22	128.82	127.52	128.30	128.55	129.53
Growth rates (%) (1)	8.28	6.84	7.35	5.95	5.90	5.02	4.80	4.16	2.08	0.30	0.87	1.28
Smoothed health index (2)	125.26	125.00	125.08	124.79	124.63	124.69	124.79	125.31	125.35	125.65	125.73	125.91

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2022)

2022	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Index (base year 2013)	118.32	119.07	119.69	120.09	121.01	122.04	123.05	124.05	125.24	128.21	127.92	127.72
Growth rates (%) (1)	7.59	8.04	8.31	8.31	8.97	9.65	9.62	9.94	11.27	12.27	10.63	10.35

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2022)

2022	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Health index (base year 2013)	118.21	118.74	119.05	119.59	120.25	121.02	122.35	123.68	124.92	127.92	127.44	127.89
Growth rates (%) (1)	7.12	7.56	7.68	7.81	8.34	8.72	9.07	9.70	11.25	12.27	10.63	10.63
Smoothed health index (2)	113.42	114.60	115.54	116.52	117.02	117.58	118.39	119.39	120.53	122.22	123.47	124.50

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

FAQs

Consumer Price Index - Inflation forecasts [03/09/2024]? ›

On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 3.2% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, compared to 4.06% in 2023 and 9.59% in 2022.

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What is the projected consumer price index for 2024? ›

Economics. The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of June 2024 is 3.1%. If 3.1% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the third consecutive decrease in the number since March 2024 (3.5%).

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What is the CPIH forecast for 2024? ›

What's in the bulletin? The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to July 2024, up from 2.8% in June 2024. On a monthly basis, the level of CPIH was little changed in July 2024, compared with a fall of 0.3% in July 2023.

What is the CPI rate for March 2024? ›

The new All Groups weighted average CPI number for the eight capital cities for the March 2024 quarter is 137.4. The weighted average CPI number for the March 2023 quarter was 132.6, so the new CPI number equates to an increase of 3.6%over the corresponding quarter for the previous year.

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How much will the CPI increase in June 2024? ›

CPI rose 1.0% in the June 2024 quarter. ABS.

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What is the CPI for April 2024? ›

The annual inflation rate based on all India Consumer Price Index (CPI) number is 4.83% (Provisional) for the month of April, 2024 (over April, 2023).

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What is the consumer forecast for 2024? ›

A slowdown in inflation will bolster retail volume growth by 6.7% in US dollar terms and 2% in volume terms in 2024.

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What is the consumer price index for May 2024? ›

The index for the months of May, 2024 is being released in this press release. 2. The All-India CPI-IW for May, 2024 increased by 0.5 point and stood at 139.9 (one hundred thirty nine point nine).

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What is the headline inflation rate in April 2024? ›

The Core CPI began at 2.4%, rose to 6.5% by March 2022, then fell to 5.9% by July 2022. It then increased to 6.6% by September 2022, the highest level since the pandemic. In April 2024, Core CPI rose 3.6% YoY and headline CPI rose 3.4% YoY.

What is the Fed's target inflation rate in 2024? ›

Variable	Median¹	Central Tendency²
Variable	2024	2026
PCE inflation	2.6	2.0–2.1
March projection	2.4	2.0–2.1
Core PCE inflation⁴	2.8	2.0–2.1

8 more rows

Jun 12, 2024

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What is the current inflation rate for June 2024? ›

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 3.0 percent from June 2023 to June 2024. The last time this figure was below 3.0 percent was in March 2021, when consumer prices increased 2.6 percent on a 12-month basis.

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What is the next CPI estimate? ›

Next Release

September 2024 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 10, 2024, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

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What is the CPI for the last 12 months? ›

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 314.796 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

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What is the CPI index for May 2024? ›

The All-India CPI-IW for May, 2024 increased by 0.5 point and stood at 139.9 (one hundred thirty nine point nine). 3. Year-on-year inflation for the month of May, 2024 moderated to 3.86% as compared to 4.42% in May, 2023.

What is the CPI rate for January 2024? ›

CPI inflation was 4.0% in January 2024 (Index: 131.5), unchanged from the December 2023 figure.

What is the CPI W for 2024? ›

The August 2024 Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), released Sept. 11, was 308.640, 2.5% above the FY 2024 baseline of 301.236. September 2024 figures will be announced Oct. 10.

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