Analyst Opinion
Australia's Commodities market has been experiencing a significant evolution in recent years, reflecting global trends and local dynamics. Customer preferences in the Australian Commodities market are shifting towards more diversified investment portfolios, with a growing interest in alternative assets such as Commodities.
Investors are increasingly looking for ways to hedge against inflation and diversify their risk, driving the demand for Commodities derivatives. Trends in the market show a rise in trading volumes and liquidity for Commodities derivatives in Australia. This trend is influenced by the country's strong ties to the mining and resources sector, as well as its position as a key exporter of Commodities globally.
The market is also seeing an increase in the adoption of electronic trading platforms, making it more accessible to a broader range of investors. Local special circ*mstances in Australia, such as its geographical location and natural resources abundance, play a significant role in shaping the Commodities market. The country's close proximity to Asia, a major consumer of Commodities, provides a strategic advantage for market participants looking to capitalize on trade flows and market opportunities.
Additionally, Australia's well-established regulatory framework and stable political environment contribute to the market's attractiveness for both domestic and international investors. Underlying macroeconomic factors, such as global economic conditions, geopolitical events, and currency movements, also impact the Commodities market in Australia. As a commodity-dependent economy, Australia is sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices, which can influence investor sentiment and market dynamics.
Moreover, changes in interest rates and inflation expectations can drive demand for Commodities derivatives as investors seek to protect their portfolios against market uncertainties.
Methodology
Data coverage:
Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.
Modeling approach / Market size:
Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.
Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.
Additional Notes:
The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.
