Commercial Real Estate - US | Statista Market Forecast (2024)

Analyst Opinion

The Commercial Real Estate market in United States has been experiencing significant developments and trends in recent years.

Customer preferences:

Customers in the Commercial Real Estate market in United States have shown a strong preference for properties that offer flexible and adaptable spaces. This is driven by the changing nature of businesses and the need for spaces that can accommodate evolving needs. Additionally, customers are increasingly looking for properties that are located in prime locations with easy access to transportation and amenities. This is driven by the desire to attract and retain top talent, as well as to cater to the needs of an increasingly mobile workforce.

Trends in the market:

One of the key trends in the Commercial Real Estate market in United States is the rise of co-working spaces. This trend has been fueled by the growth of startups and freelancers who are looking for affordable and flexible office spaces. Co-working spaces offer a range of amenities and services, such as shared meeting rooms, high-speed internet, and networking events, which are attractive to these customers. Another trend in the market is the increasing demand for mixed-use developments. These developments combine commercial, residential, and retail spaces in a single location, creating vibrant and dynamic communities.

Local special circ*mstances:

The Commercial Real Estate market in United States is influenced by local factors such as population growth and urbanization. As more people move to cities in search of job opportunities, the demand for commercial real estate in urban areas has increased. Additionally, the United States has a diverse economy with different industries driving demand for commercial real estate in different regions. For example, technology companies are driving demand for office space in cities like San Francisco and Seattle, while the healthcare industry is driving demand for medical office space in cities like New York and Boston.

Underlying macroeconomic factors:

The development of the Commercial Real Estate market in United States is also influenced by underlying macroeconomic factors. For example, low interest rates have made it easier for businesses to access financing for real estate investments, leading to increased demand. Additionally, the strong economy and low unemployment rate have contributed to the growth of the market, as businesses expand and create new jobs. However, it is important to note that the market is also sensitive to changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as changes in interest rates or economic downturns, which can impact demand and pricing.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on value of commercial real estate.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a bottom-up approach. As a basis for evaluating this market, we use national statistical offices. Next, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations such as share of industry, manufacturing, and services of the GPD, price level index, GDP. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the market, for example, exponential trend smoothing.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change. The impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.

Commercial Real Estate - US | Statista Market Forecast (2024)

FAQs

What is the forecast for Commercial Real Estate in the US? ›

Commercial Real Estate - United States

This projection indicates a significant annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 2.18%, leading to a market volume of US$28.16tn by 2029.

Is Commercial Real Estate a good investment in 2024? ›

According to Statista, the Commercial Real Estate market in the United States is anticipated to reach a staggering $25.37tn in 2024. This projection indicates a significant annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 2.66%, leading to a market volume of US $28.18tn by 2028.

How big is the Commercial Real Estate market in the US? ›

According to the Federal Reserve's April 2024 Financial Stability Report (PDF), the U.S. CRE market was valued at $22.5 trillion as of the fourth quarter of 2023, making it the fourth-largest asset market in the U.S. (following equities, residential real estate and Treasury securities).

What percentage of Commercial Real Estate is owned by REITs? ›

We also estimate total REIT holdings of commercial real estate using data from Capital IQ Pro. For the second quarter of 2021, REITs make up an estimated 9.4% of the total CRE market.

What is the CRE market outlook for 2024? ›

A healthy labor market, higher housing prices, and limited supply continue to drive younger families and individuals to rent. However, the delivery of 440,000 new units and more than 900,000 properties under construction will likely cause the overall vacancy rate to rise and rent growth to decelerate in 2024.

Is it a good time to invest in commercial real estate? ›

Depending on your tolerance for risk, there could be some commercial real estate opportunities in 2021 and beyond. “The pandemic accelerated trends such as the hybrid work model and the rise of ecommerce, both of which we'll likely continue to see increase," said Dunn.

What is the outlook for 2024 for JP Morgan Chase commercial real estate? ›

Browse by topic. The commercial real estate outlook for the second half of 2024 is largely positive—multifamily continues to perform, as do industrial and retail. But challenges could lie ahead. The higher interest rate environment appears to be here to stay, and office vacancies continue to climb.

What is the outlook for commercial construction in 2024? ›

The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast is calling for essentially no growth this year and next overall in the commercial markets. For industrial facilities, current project activity is expected to produce healthy double-digit spending growth this year, but then stabilize for 2025.

What is the commercial lending forecast for 2024? ›

MBA Forecast: Commercial/Multifamily Borrowing and Lending to Increase 26 Percent to $539 Billion in 2024 | MBA.

Who is the largest commercial real estate owner? ›

Blackstone is the world's biggest commercial property owner

Blackstone, which Schwarzman founded in 1985 with just $400,000, is the world's largest commercial property owner.

What is the largest commercial real estate company in the US? ›

Company Description

Based in Dallas, Coldwell Banker Richard Ellis (CBRE) is one of the largest global commercial real estate services and investment companies, with 500 offices in more than 100 countries.

Who owns the most commercial real estate in America? ›

CBRE Investment Management tops this year's list of leading commercial property owners, with more than 321 million square feet owned across a diverse array of asset types.

What is the 90% REIT rule? ›

By law, REITs must distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders. This means most dividends investors receive are taxed as ordinary income at their marginal tax rates rather than lower qualified dividend rates. Any profit is subject to capital gains tax when investors sell REIT shares.

What is the 75% rule for REITs? ›

For each tax year, the REIT must derive: at least 75 percent of its gross income from real property-related sources; and. at least 95 percent of its gross income from real property-related sources, dividends, interest, securities, and certain mineral royalty income.

Who is the largest REIT owner? ›

The five largest REITs in the United States are: American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Crown Castle International, Simon Property Group and Weyerhaeuser.

What is the outlook for commercial lending in 2024? ›

In February 2024, the industry trade group estimated $929 billion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors would mature in 2024, a 28% increase from $729 billion in 2023, based on survey data.

What is the forecast for the US commercial construction market? ›

The United States Commercial Construction Market size is expected to reach USD 171.26 billion in 2024 and grow at a CAGR of 3.51% to reach USD 203.50 billion by 2029.

What is the outlook for commercial lending? ›

The Mortgage Bankers Association expects commercial loan origination to rise to $576 billion in 2024, a 29% increase from 2023's estimated total of $444 billion.

What is the office sector outlook for 2024? ›

We anticipate employment in office-using sectors to show modest growth in 2024, and occupiers to advance their return-to-office (RTO) and workplace strategies to a point where their space needs are clearer. Quality differentials will become even more apparent.

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