Last Update: 31 July 2024
The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio invests in 5 asset classes and is allocated for 30% on Stocks.
In the period Jan 1871 - Jul 2024, the portfolio granted a 6.17% annualized return, with a -37.82% maximum drawdown.
Key Points
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.448% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 86.73% of cases, and for 50 years in the 34.49% of cases .
In this post we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio. All calculations are made on actual historical series.
You can implement the portfolio, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.
The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
The Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio contains 30% Stocks, 55% Bonds, 15% Commodities.
| Weight | Asset Class | Category |
|---|---|---|
| 30.00 % | Total US Stock Market | Stocks |
| 40.00 % | US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries | Fixed Income |
| 15.00 % | US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries | Fixed Income |
| 7.50 % | Gold | Commodities |
| 7.50 % | Commodities | Commodities |
Commodities: 1871-1970: data source extended with yearly real price variations of an equal-weighted commodity basket.
Over the last 30 years (last update: July 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.21% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.
7.146% has been a safe withdrawal rate.
Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at July 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.
A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.
A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Jul 2024 | Withdrawal Rate (%) | Investment Performances | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] | Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years | 1 Aug 2014 | 31 Jul 2024 | 2.126 | 11.584 | 4.91 [ 2.05 ] | -20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 20 Years | 1 Aug 2004 | 31 Jul 2024 | 4.002 | 7.744 | 6.36 [ 3.70 ] | -20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 30 Years | 1 Aug 1994 | 31 Jul 2024 | 5.271 | 7.146 | 7.21 [ 4.56 ] | -20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 40 Years | 1 Aug 1984 | 31 Jul 2024 | 7.781 | 8.723 | 8.68 [ 5.72 ] | -20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 50 Years | 1 Aug 1974 | 31 Jul 2024 | 4.819 | 5.303 | 8.86 [ 4.90 ] | -20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 60 Years | 1 Aug 1964 | 31 Jul 2024 | 3.142 | 3.455 | 8.17 [ 4.08 ] | -20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 70 Years | 1 Aug 1954 | 31 Jul 2024 | 3.232 | 3.454 | 7.72 [ 4.00 ] | -20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
| 80 Years | 1 Aug 1944 | 31 Jul 2024 | 2.677 | 2.835 | 7.47 [ 3.67 ] | -20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at June 2024
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Jul 2024)
During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your portfolio, without running out of money over a long period.
Based on how long your retirement is, what would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
▼ Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation.The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
In the table below, we analyze different key withdrawal rates, based on the length of retirement. To focus on a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
Period: Jan 1871 - Jul 2024
Period: Aug 1924 - Jul 2024
Period: Aug 1974 - Jul 2024
Swipe left to see all data
| PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate | SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes | 10 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.000 Jan 1908 Jan 1908 - Dec 1917 Annualized Return: 4.19% (-0.38% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -8.36% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 0.000 Feb 1909 Feb 1909 - Jan 1919 Annualized Return: 3.23% (-2.91% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -8.36% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 1.601 Jul 1911 Jul 1911 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 2.30% (-4.61% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -8.36% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 4.829 Jul 1911 Jul 1911 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 2.30% (-4.61% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -8.36% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 7.495 Feb 1916 Feb 1916 - Jan 1926 Annualized Return: 5.39% (-0.18% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -8.36% (Dec 1916 - Dec 1917) | 8.990 | 9.864 | 10.436 | 12.083 | |
| 20 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.000 Aug 1898 Aug 1898 - Jul 1918 Annualized Return: 3.99% (-0.18% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -10.27% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 0.000 Jul 1900 Jul 1900 - Jun 1920 Annualized Return: 3.56% (-1.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -10.27% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 1.546 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 2.75% (-1.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -10.27% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 3.189 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 Annualized Return: 2.75% (-1.53% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -10.27% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 4.502 Apr 1911 Apr 1911 - Mar 1931 Annualized Return: 4.93% (2.10% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -14.14% (Sep 1929 - Dec 1930) | 4.999 | 5.143 | 5.476 | 7.061 | ||
| 30 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.365 Jul 1890 Jul 1890 - Jun 1920 Annualized Return: 3.64% (0.25% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -10.27% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 1.516 Jul 1890 Jul 1890 - Jun 1920 Annualized Return: 3.64% (0.25% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -10.27% (Oct 1906 - Nov 1907) | 2.393 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1976 Annualized Return: 5.13% (1.29% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 2.939 May 1901 May 1901 - Apr 1931 Annualized Return: 4.25% (1.77% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -14.83% (Sep 1929 - Apr 1931) | 3.448 May 1901 May 1901 - Apr 1931 Annualized Return: 4.25% (1.77% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -14.83% (Sep 1929 - Apr 1931) | 3.795 | 3.939 | 4.173 | 5.050 | ||
| 40 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.022 Oct 1941 Oct 1941 - Sep 1981 Annualized Return: 5.64% (0.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 1.579 Apr 1940 Apr 1940 - Mar 1980 Annualized Return: 5.57% (1.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 2.086 Apr 1940 Apr 1940 - Mar 1980 Annualized Return: 5.57% (1.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 2.593 Apr 1940 Apr 1940 - Mar 1980 Annualized Return: 5.57% (1.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 2.932 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1986 Annualized Return: 6.70% (2.02% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 3.193 | 3.313 | 3.531 | 4.079 | ||
| 50 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.817 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1951 Annualized Return: 4.75% (2.19% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.026 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1987 Annualized Return: 6.74% (2.42% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.224 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1987 Annualized Return: 6.74% (2.42% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.423 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1987 Annualized Return: 6.74% (2.42% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.621 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1987 Annualized Return: 6.74% (2.42% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.836 | 2.952 | 3.160 | 3.712 | ||
| 60 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.972 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1961 Annualized Return: 4.88% (2.50% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.117 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1961 Annualized Return: 4.88% (2.50% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.258 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1997 Annualized Return: 7.28% (3.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.361 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1997 Annualized Return: 7.28% (3.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.464 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1997 Annualized Return: 7.28% (3.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.654 | 2.750 | 2.944 | 3.493 | ||
| 70 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.916 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 4.75% (2.26% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.043 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 4.75% (2.26% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.169 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 4.75% (2.26% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.296 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1971 Annualized Return: 4.75% (2.26% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.388 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2007 Annualized Return: 7.38% (3.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.544 | 2.605 | 2.767 | 3.262 | ||
| 80 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.844 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1981 Annualized Return: 5.23% (2.01% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 1.963 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1981 Annualized Return: 5.23% (2.01% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.081 Jul 1901 Jul 1901 - Jun 1981 Annualized Return: 5.23% (2.01% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.197 May 1901 May 1901 - Apr 1981 Annualized Return: 5.23% (2.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.313 May 1901 May 1901 - Apr 1981 Annualized Return: 5.23% (2.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -37.82% (Sep 1929 - May 1932) | 2.458 | 2.519 | 2.647 | 3.054 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
Legend:
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
| PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate | SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes | 10 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.000 Dec 1936 Dec 1936 - Nov 1946 Annualized Return: 3.94% (-0.33% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 1.017 Jul 1972 Jul 1972 - Jun 1982 Annualized Return: 6.91% (-1.74% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.36% (Mar 1974 - Sep 1974) | 3.885 Jul 1972 Jul 1972 - Jun 1982 Annualized Return: 6.91% (-1.74% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.36% (Mar 1974 - Sep 1974) | 6.529 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1956 Annualized Return: 4.73% (0.75% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -6.92% (Jun 1946 - Nov 1946) | 8.501 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1956 Annualized Return: 4.73% (0.75% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -6.92% (Jun 1946 - Nov 1946) | 9.661 | 9.965 | 10.570 | 12.072 | |
| 20 Years Worst Period (from) | 0.000 Oct 1961 Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 Annualized Return: 5.82% (-0.01% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 1.400 Oct 1961 Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 Annualized Return: 5.82% (-0.01% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 2.812 Oct 1961 Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 Annualized Return: 5.82% (-0.01% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 4.008 Mar 1937 Mar 1937 - Feb 1957 Annualized Return: 4.50% (1.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 4.932 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1966 Annualized Return: 4.66% (1.78% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -6.92% (Jun 1946 - Nov 1946) | 5.221 | 5.395 | 5.767 | 7.061 | ||
| 30 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.000 May 1940 May 1940 - Apr 1970 Annualized Return: 4.48% (1.02% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -10.87% (Dec 1968 - Apr 1970) | 1.706 May 1940 May 1940 - Apr 1970 Annualized Return: 4.48% (1.02% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -10.87% (Dec 1968 - Apr 1970) | 2.393 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1976 Annualized Return: 5.13% (1.29% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 3.011 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1976 Annualized Return: 5.13% (1.29% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 3.629 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1976 Annualized Return: 5.13% (1.29% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 3.929 | 4.132 | 4.306 | 5.039 | ||
| 40 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.022 Oct 1941 Oct 1941 - Sep 1981 Annualized Return: 5.64% (0.94% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 1.579 Apr 1940 Apr 1940 - Mar 1980 Annualized Return: 5.57% (1.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 2.086 Apr 1940 Apr 1940 - Mar 1980 Annualized Return: 5.57% (1.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 2.593 Apr 1940 Apr 1940 - Mar 1980 Annualized Return: 5.57% (1.07% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 2.932 Feb 1946 Feb 1946 - Jan 1986 Annualized Return: 6.70% (2.02% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -12.96% (Dec 1968 - May 1970) | 3.178 | 3.294 | 3.706 | 4.117 | ||
| 50 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.823 Dec 1936 Dec 1936 - Nov 1986 Annualized Return: 6.69% (2.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.026 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1987 Annualized Return: 6.74% (2.42% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.224 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1987 Annualized Return: 6.74% (2.42% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.423 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1987 Annualized Return: 6.74% (2.42% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.621 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1987 Annualized Return: 6.74% (2.42% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.773 | 2.857 | 3.182 | 3.741 | ||
| 60 Years Worst Period (from) | 2.052 Mar 1937 Mar 1937 - Feb 1997 Annualized Return: 7.26% (3.01% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.156 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1997 Annualized Return: 7.28% (3.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.258 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1997 Annualized Return: 7.28% (3.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.361 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1997 Annualized Return: 7.28% (3.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.464 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 1997 Annualized Return: 7.28% (3.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.616 | 2.669 | 2.944 | 3.537 | ||
| 70 Years Worst Period (from) | 2.154 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2007 Annualized Return: 7.38% (3.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.212 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2007 Annualized Return: 7.38% (3.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.271 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2007 Annualized Return: 7.38% (3.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.330 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2007 Annualized Return: 7.38% (3.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.388 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2007 Annualized Return: 7.38% (3.37% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.526 | 2.564 | 2.707 | 3.390 | ||
| 80 Years Worst Period (from) | 2.191 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2017 Annualized Return: 7.23% (3.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.229 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2017 Annualized Return: 7.23% (3.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.267 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2017 Annualized Return: 7.23% (3.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.305 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2017 Annualized Return: 7.23% (3.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.343 Feb 1937 Feb 1937 - Jan 2017 Annualized Return: 7.23% (3.48% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -18.00% (Mar 1937 - Mar 1938) | 2.462 | 2.491 | 2.568 | 2.948 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
Legend:
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
| PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate | SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes | 10 Years Worst Period (from) | 1.035 Nov 2013 Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 Annualized Return: 3.73% (0.91% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -20.75% (Jan 2022 - Sep 2022) | 3.758 Nov 2013 Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 Annualized Return: 3.73% (0.91% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -20.75% (Jan 2022 - Sep 2022) | 6.243 Aug 1974 Aug 1974 - Jul 1984 Annualized Return: 9.57% (1.70% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -11.67% (Jan 1981 - Sep 1981) | 8.498 Jul 1975 Jul 1975 - Jun 1985 Annualized Return: 10.62% (3.17% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -11.67% (Jan 1981 - Sep 1981) | 10.257 Jan 1977 Jan 1977 - Dec 1986 Annualized Return: 12.42% (5.44% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -11.67% (Jan 1981 - Sep 1981) | 10.827 | 11.554 | 11.967 | 12.851 | |
| 20 Years Worst Period (from) | 3.460 Nov 2003 Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 Annualized Return: 5.68% (3.03% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -20.75% (Jan 2022 - Sep 2022) | 4.466 Apr 2004 Apr 2004 - Mar 2024 Annualized Return: 6.00% (3.33% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -20.75% (Jan 2022 - Sep 2022) | 5.416 Apr 2004 Apr 2004 - Mar 2024 Annualized Return: 6.00% (3.33% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -20.75% (Jan 2022 - Sep 2022) | 6.367 Apr 2004 Apr 2004 - Mar 2024 Annualized Return: 6.00% (3.33% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -20.75% (Jan 2022 - Sep 2022) | 6.995 Jul 1975 Jul 1975 - Jun 1995 Annualized Return: 11.29% (5.62% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -11.67% (Jan 1981 - Sep 1981) | 7.223 | 7.331 | 7.540 | 8.332 | ||
| 30 Years Worst Period (from) | 4.425 Nov 1993 Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 Annualized Return: 6.47% (3.85% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -20.75% (Jan 2022 - Sep 2022) | 4.950 Nov 1993 Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 Annualized Return: 6.47% (3.85% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -20.75% (Jan 2022 - Sep 2022) | 5.444 Jul 1975 Jul 1975 - Jun 2005 Annualized Return: 10.51% (5.87% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -11.67% (Jan 1981 - Sep 1981) | 5.714 Jul 1975 Jul 1975 - Jun 2005 Annualized Return: 10.51% (5.87% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -11.67% (Jan 1981 - Sep 1981) | 5.985 Jul 1975 Jul 1975 - Jun 2005 Annualized Return: 10.51% (5.87% infl.adj.) Max.Drawdown: -11.67% (Jan 1981 - Sep 1981) | 6.135 | 6.270 | 6.657 | 7.133 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
Legend:
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at June 2024
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Period: Jan 1871 - Jul 2024
Period: Aug 1924 - Jul 2024
Period: Aug 1974 - Jul 2024
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate | 10 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years | 20 Years | 30 Years | 30 Years | 40 Years | 40 Years | 50 Years | 50 Years | 60 Years | 60 Years | 70 Years | 70 Years | 80 Years | 80 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.464% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.388% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.313% | |||||
| 2.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.932% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.621% | 99.73 | 95% Succ. 2.654% | 98.01 | 95% Succ. 2.544% | 90.84 | 90% Succ. 2.519% | |||
| 3.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.448% | 99.78 | 95% Succ. 3.193% | 88.67 | 80% Succ. 3.160% | 74.02 | 50% Succ. 3.493% | 58.96 | 50% Succ. 3.262% | 53.28 | 50% Succ. 3.054% | ||
| 3.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 99.87 | 95% Succ. 3.795% | 81.38 | 80% Succ. 3.531% | 62.30 | 50% Succ. 3.712% | 49.47 | 41.14 | 37.67 | |||||
| 4.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 86.73 | 80% Succ. 4.173% | 54.18 | 50% Succ. 4.079% | 34.49 | 26.42 | 26.39 | 26.58 | ||||||
| 4.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 4.502% | 64.08 | 39.52 | 24.52 | 17.62 | 16.33 | 16.63 | |||||||
| 5.00 % | 100.00 | 94.83 | 90% Succ. 5.143% | 51.15 | 50% Succ. 5.050% | 31.30 | 15.59 | 11.12 | 10.36 | 10.86 | ||||||
| 5.50 % | 100.00 | 79.43 | 41.44 | 24.19 | 9.41 | 8.01 | 7.57 | 6.67 | ||||||||
| 6.00 % | 100.00 | 69.64 | 36.05 | 16.50 | 6.59 | 4.63 | 2.59 | 1.13 | ||||||||
| 6.50 % | 100.00 | 58.29 | 29.31 | 12.54 | 4.26 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 7.00 % | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 7.495% | 51.56 | 50% Succ. 7.061% | 20.01 | 9.38 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 7.50 % | 99.94 | 40.52 | 12.40 | 5.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 8.00 % | 98.78 | 32.54 | 9.30 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
'; } }, tooltip: { useHTML:true, padding:0, formatter: function() { var series = this.series.chart.series; text = '
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'; }, this); text += '
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}, { name: '50 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '60 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '70 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '80 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, ] };
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate | 10 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years | 20 Years | 30 Years | 30 Years | 40 Years | 40 Years | 50 Years | 50 Years | 60 Years | 60 Years | 70 Years | 70 Years | 80 Years | 80 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.464% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.388% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.343% | |||||
| 2.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.932% | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 2.621% | 99.38 | 95% Succ. 2.616% | 97.23 | 95% Succ. 2.526% | 87.14 | 80% Succ. 2.568% | |||
| 3.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 99.58 | 95% Succ. 3.178% | 86.36 | 80% Succ. 3.182% | 74.84 | 60.11 | 50% Succ. 3.390% | 47.72 | |||||
| 3.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 3.629% | 85.16 | 80% Succ. 3.706% | 69.05 | 50% Succ. 3.741% | 53.22 | 50% Succ. 3.537% | 41.00 | 31.95 | ||||
| 4.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 92.87 | 90% Succ. 4.132% | 57.28 | 50% Succ. 4.117% | 27.79 | 10.40 | 12.19 | 15.35 | ||||||
| 4.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 4.932% | 69.44 | 38.83 | 14.31 | 5.20 | 1.66 | 0.00 | |||||||
| 5.00 % | 100.00 | 99.90 | 95% Succ. 5.221% | 51.01 | 50% Succ. 5.039% | 26.49 | 5.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 5.50 % | 100.00 | 86.37 | 80% Succ. 5.767% | 40.55 | 21.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||
| 6.00 % | 100.00 | 73.57 | 34.60 | 11.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 6.50 % | 100.00 | 59.11 | 28.54 | 9.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 7.00 % | 100.00 | 51.30 | 50% Succ. 7.061% | 17.84 | 7.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||
| 7.50 % | 100.00 | 39.96 | 9.16 | 5.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 8.00 % | 100.00 | 30.70 | 7.13 | 3.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
'; } }, tooltip: { useHTML:true, padding:0, formatter: function() { var series = this.series.chart.series; text = '
'; text += 'Withdrawal:'+this.point.x.toFixed(1)+'%
'; series.forEach(function(s) { text +='Over '+s.name+': Success: '+s.points[this.point.index].y.toFixed(2)+'%
'; }, this); text += '
'; return text; } }, plotOptions: { spline: { marker: { enabled: false } } }, series: [ { name: '10 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '30 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '40 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '50 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '60 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '70 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, { name: '80 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] 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}, ] };
Swipe left to see all data
| Withdrawal Rate | 10 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years | 20 Years | 30 Years | 30 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | % Success | Percentile | |
| 2.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |||
| 2.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |||
| 3.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |||
| 3.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |||
| 4.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |||
| 4.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |||
| 5.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |||
| 5.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 5.985% | ||
| 6.00 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 99.17 | 95% Succ. 6.135% | ||
| 6.50 % | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100% Succ. 6.995% | 85.06 | 80% Succ. 6.657% | |
| 7.00 % | 100.00 | 99.45 | 95% Succ. 7.223% | 60.58 | 50% Succ. 7.133% | |
| 7.50 % | 100.00 | 81.99 | 80% Succ. 7.540% | 31.95 | ||
| 8.00 % | 100.00 | 66.48 | 24.90 |
'; } }, tooltip: { useHTML:true, padding:0, formatter: function() { var series = this.series.chart.series; text = '
'; text += 'Withdrawal:'+this.point.x.toFixed(1)+'%
'; series.forEach(function(s) { text +='Over '+s.name+': Success: '+s.points[this.point.index].y.toFixed(2)+'%
'; }, this); text += '
'; return text; } }, plotOptions: { spline: { marker: { enabled: false } } }, series: [ { name: '10 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] data:[[0.7,100],[0.8,100],[0.9,100],[1,100],[1.1,100],[1.2,100],[1.3,100],[1.4,100],[1.5,100],[1.6,100],[1.7,100],[1.8,100],[1.9,100],[2,100],[2.1,100],[2.2,100],[2.3,100],[2.4,100],[2.5,100],[2.6,100],[2.7,100],[2.8,100],[2.9,100],[3,100],[3.1,100],[3.2,100],[3.3,100],[3.4,100],[3.5,100],[3.6,100],[3.7,100],[3.8,100],[3.9,100],[4,100],[4.1,100],[4.2,100],[4.3,100],[4.4,100],[4.5,100],[4.6,100],[4.7,100],[4.8,100],[4.9,100],[5,100],[5.1,100],[5.2,100],[5.3,100],[5.4,100],[5.5,100],[5.6,100],[5.7,100],[5.8,100],[5.9,100],[6,100],[6.1,100],[6.2,100],[6.3,100],[6.4,100],[6.5,100],[6.6,100],[6.7,100],[6.8,100],[6.9,100],[7,100],[7.1,100],[7.2,100],[7.3,100],[7.4,100],[7.5,100],[7.6,100],[7.7,100],[7.8,100],[7.9,100],[8,100],[8.1,100],[8.2,100],[8.3,100],[8.4,100],[8.5,100],[8.6,100],[8.7,100],[8.8,100],[8.9,100],[9,100],[9.1,100],[9.2,100],[9.3,100],[9.4,100],[9.5,100],[9.6,100],[9.7,100],[9.8,100],[9.9,100],[10,100],] }, { name: '20 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] data:[[0.7,100],[0.8,100],[0.9,100],[1,100],[1.1,100],[1.2,100],[1.3,100],[1.4,100],[1.5,100],[1.6,100],[1.7,100],[1.8,100],[1.9,100],[2,100],[2.1,100],[2.2,100],[2.3,100],[2.4,100],[2.5,100],[2.6,100],[2.7,100],[2.8,100],[2.9,100],[3,100],[3.1,100],[3.2,100],[3.3,100],[3.4,100],[3.5,100],[3.6,100],[3.7,100],[3.8,100],[3.9,100],[4,100],[4.1,100],[4.2,100],[4.3,100],[4.4,100],[4.5,100],[4.6,100],[4.7,100],[4.8,100],[4.9,100],[5,100],[5.1,100],[5.2,100],[5.3,100],[5.4,100],[5.5,100],[5.6,100],[5.7,100],[5.8,100],[5.9,100],[6,100],[6.1,100],[6.2,100],[6.3,100],[6.4,100],[6.5,100],[6.6,100],[6.7,100],[6.8,100],[6.9,100],[7,99.445983379501],[7.1,97.783933518006],[7.2,95.290858725762],[7.3,92.797783933518],[7.4,86.149584487535],[7.5,81.994459833795],[7.6,77.562326869806],[7.7,75.623268698061],[7.8,71.191135734072],[7.9,70.083102493075],[8,66.481994459834],[8.1,62.326869806094],[8.2,57.617728531856],[8.3,52.908587257618],[8.4,47.091412742382],[8.5,42.382271468144],[8.6,38.227146814404],[8.7,36.01108033241],[8.8,32.409972299169],[8.9,28.808864265928],[9,25.484764542936],[9.1,22.160664819945],[9.2,20.498614958449],[9.3,19.113573407202],[9.4,17.451523545706],[9.5,17.174515235457],[9.6,16.343490304709],[9.7,16.343490304709],[9.8,15.789473684211],[9.9,14.681440443213],[10,13.850415512465],] }, { name: '30 Years', //data: [[0, 15], [10, -50], [20, -56.5], [30, -46.5], [40, -22.1],[50, -2.5], [60, -27.7], [70, -55.7], [80, -76.5],] data:[[0.7,100],[0.8,100],[0.9,100],[1,100],[1.1,100],[1.2,100],[1.3,100],[1.4,100],[1.5,100],[1.6,100],[1.7,100],[1.8,100],[1.9,100],[2,100],[2.1,100],[2.2,100],[2.3,100],[2.4,100],[2.5,100],[2.6,100],[2.7,100],[2.8,100],[2.9,100],[3,100],[3.1,100],[3.2,100],[3.3,100],[3.4,100],[3.5,100],[3.6,100],[3.7,100],[3.8,100],[3.9,100],[4,100],[4.1,100],[4.2,100],[4.3,100],[4.4,100],[4.5,100],[4.6,100],[4.7,100],[4.8,100],[4.9,100],[5,100],[5.1,100],[5.2,100],[5.3,100],[5.4,100],[5.5,100],[5.6,100],[5.7,100],[5.8,100],[5.9,100],[6,99.170124481328],[6.1,96.265560165975],[6.2,92.946058091286],[6.3,88.381742738589],[6.4,86.721991701245],[6.5,85.0622406639],[6.6,82.157676348548],[6.7,78.008298755187],[6.8,71.369294605809],[6.9,66.804979253112],[7,60.580912863071],[7.1,54.356846473029],[7.2,46.473029045643],[7.3,40.248962655602],[7.4,35.684647302905],[7.5,31.95020746888],[7.6,29.875518672199],[7.7,28.630705394191],[7.8,27.800829875519],[7.9,26.55601659751],[8,24.896265560166],[8.1,24.48132780083],[8.2,23.236514522822],[8.3,22.406639004149],[8.4,21.161825726141],[8.5,18.672199170124],[8.6,16.597510373444],[8.7,15.352697095436],[8.8,12.863070539419],[8.9,12.033195020747],[9,11.203319502075],[9.1,9.1286307053942],[9.2,8.7136929460581],[9.3,7.0539419087137],[9.4,6.6390041493776],[9.5,6.2240663900415],[9.6,6.2240663900415],[9.7,5.3941908713693],[9.8,3.7344398340249],[9.9,2.9045643153527],[10,2.4896265560166],] }, ] };
