A winning stock can save your entire portfolio (2024)

As investors, we have all had our fair share of bad experiences with the stock markets. From alleged management frauds to the global financial crisis, the recent covid pandemic and sometimes simply it’s our stock picks that don’t work out the way we had thought they would! We will let you in on a little secret. Investment professionals too have these experiences, but they have gotten really good at concealing these facts.

Fun fact, top investor Warren Buffett has a success rate of only 58% when it comes to picking the right stocks. In fact, in fund management, this ‘hit rate’ is absolutely enviable! Buffett once mentioned that even if an investor merely hits 50% of right stocks in his entire portfolio, implying the other half would be rotten picks, he would still be able to earn supernormal returns!

Imagine you have selected 10 stocks for your portfolio through your own rigorous due diligence and research and held on to it patiently for a long period, say the next 40 years. Now, equate the first case to a scenario wherein five of the 10 stocks in your portfolio performed exceptionally well, generating 15-30% CAGR. While the other half of the portfolio eroded shareholder wealth completely. An interesting observation is that the compounding returns of the right stocks more than makes up for the losses of the other ones and if held for a long time progressively and significantly grows the investor’s capital over time. Yes, that’s right, the winning stocks proved to be more than capable of overpowering even the negative 100% returns of the losing ones, earning an overall positive return on the entire portfolio in the long run. In fact, the returns keep magnifying as he/she keeps extending his/her investment time frame, thanks to the power of compounding!

A winning stock can save your entire portfolio (1)

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Now, consider a second scenario wherein even after thorough research and conviction, the investor’s picks went completely wrong in all but one stock. You may think, there goes all my money down the drain! But the results would stun you! Turns out, if your conviction on even one of the stocks turns right and you stick to it, you are still bound to earn lofty returns in the long run! Meaning, even if a single stock yields a 30% CAGR with the others losing 100% completely, your entire portfolio is still bound to earn a healthy 22.73% return if held on for the next 40 years. The compounded returns of the one right stock has the power to not just exceed the other loss-making bets but also turn around your portfolio’s entire investment performance in the long term.

What’s all the more fascinating is the fact that in just a few years, the entire portfolio starts exactly mirroring the performance of the winning stock! Why does this happen? The answer is simple, limited downside risk and unlimited upside potential! Sure, the losing nine stocks may vanish your investment capital completely from those respective stocks. Worst-case scenario, they can reduce down to zero, but that’s about it; your downside risk is capped at zero. The investment definitely cannot fall beyond zero, right? However, for the winnings of our right pick, the sky is the limit! Year after year, money from your investment in the winning stock would keep growing, intensifying your returns from the stock, all thanks to the magic of compounding!

The takeaway is clear: don’t be afraid if you have fallen prey to choosing some wrong stocks. Choosing a winning stock is a difficult task, given the uncertainty about how companies compete, expand and adapt, potential technological disruptions, the impact of regulations, an out-of-the-blue pandemic—the list is endless. So, don’t worry about choosing a losing stock. We may never have the upper hand when it comes to foreseeing the future! Accuracy in stock selection may not be in our control. But due diligence and thorough research definitely is.

So, it’s best that we devote our time and attention to studying the stock, gaining a complete understanding of the business, its risks and opportunities, and the financial position. The rest is a game of patience! Our patience will bear fruit only in the long run.

Salonee Desai is senior equity research analyst, Moat Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.

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Published: 18 Oct 2021, 12:26 AM IST

A winning stock can save your entire portfolio (2024)

FAQs

Is it realistic to have 100% of your portfolio in stocks? ›

If you take an ultra-aggressive approach, you could allocate 100% of your portfolio to stocks. A moderately aggressive strategy would contain 80% stocks to 20% cash and bonds. For moderate growth, keep 60% in stocks and 40% in cash and bonds.

Should my 401k be 100% stocks? ›

The research by three U.S. finance professors led by University of Arizona professor Scott Cederberg comes to the surprising conclusion that a portfolio holding 100% stocks and no bonds is best, even for people already in retirement.

Is it smart to put all your money in stocks? ›

Even for those who cannot easily borrow, a 100% equity allocation might not offer the best return based on how much risk investors want to take. The problem when deciding between a 60%, 100% or even 200% equity allocation is that the history of financial markets is too short.

How much of one stock is too much in a portfolio? ›

When an investment in a single stock represents more than 5% of a portfolio, T. Rowe Price advisors consider it to be worth addressing. Once a holding exceeds 10%, however, it represents a greater risk that requires more immediate planning.

How to invest $100 dollars to make $1 000? ›

10 best ways to turn $100 into $1,000
  1. Opening a high-yield savings account. ...
  2. Investing in stocks, bonds, crypto, and real estate. ...
  3. Online selling. ...
  4. Blogging or vlogging. ...
  5. Opening a Roth IRA. ...
  6. Freelancing and other side hustles. ...
  7. Affiliate marketing and promotion. ...
  8. Online teaching.
Apr 12, 2024

How much money will I have if I invest $100 a month? ›

Investing $100 per month, with an average return rate of 10%, will yield $200,000 after 30 years. Due to compound interest, your investment will yield $535,000 after 40 years. These numbers can grow exponentially with an extra $100. If you make a monthly investment of $200, your 30-year yield will be close to $400,000.

How much should I have in stocks at age 60? ›

At age 60–69, consider a moderate portfolio (60% stock, 35% bonds, 5% cash/cash investments); 70–79, moderately conservative (40% stock, 50% bonds, 10% cash/cash investments); 80 and above, conservative (20% stock, 50% bonds, 30% cash/cash investments).

At what age should I get out of stocks? ›

The 100-minus-your-age long-term savings rule is designed to guard against investment risk in retirement. If you're 60, you should only have 40% of your retirement portfolio in stocks, with the rest in bonds, money market accounts and cash.

Should a 70 year old be in the stock market? ›

Indeed, a good mix of equities (yes, even at age 70), bonds and cash can help you achieve long-term success, pros say. One rough rule of thumb is that the percentage of your money invested in stocks should equal 110 minus your age, which in your case would be 40%. The rest should be in bonds and cash.

Do rich people keep their money in stocks? ›

Bottom Line. Millionaires have many different investment philosophies. These can include investing in real estate, stock, commodities and hedge funds, among other types of financial investments. Generally, many seek to mitigate risk and therefore prefer diversified investment portfolios.

How much money do I need to invest to make $3,000 a month? ›

Imagine you wish to amass $3000 monthly from your investments, amounting to $36,000 annually. If you park your funds in a savings account offering a 2% annual interest rate, you'd need to inject roughly $1.8 million into the account.

What if I invested $100 a month in S&P 500? ›

$100 a month invested from age 25 to 65 is $1,176,000. You do NOT have to retire broke. A lot of people will want to argue with me on that rate of return. But here's the truth: Historically, the 30-year average return of the S&P 500 has been about 10–12%.

How many stocks does Warren Buffett own? ›

Among the 47 stocks Berkshire Hathaway holds, the top 10 represent about 87% of the company's holdings. Here's a rundown of Buffett's 10 largest holdings based on Berkshire Hathaway's most recent 13F filing, filed May 15, 2024.

What is a good number of stocks to have in your portfolio? ›

There might be other practical considerations that limit the number of stocks. However, our analysis demonstrates that, whether you own ETFs, mutual funds, or a basket of individual stocks, a well-diversified portfolio requires owning more than 20-30 stocks.

Which are the best stocks to invest in 2024? ›

Best stocks in 2024
S.No.NameCMP Rs.
1.BLS Internat.353.05
2.Black Box549.95
3.RHI Magnesita583.15
4.Gujarat Gas641.25
22 more rows

Is it OK to invest 100 in stocks? ›

The main argument advanced by proponents of a 100% equities strategy is simple and straightforward: In the long run, equities outperform bonds and cash; therefore, allocating your entire portfolio to stocks will maximize your returns.

Is it okay to invest 100% in equity? ›

If they had all their wealth invested in equities, most investors would find it behaviourally very difficult not to sell when markets crash or book profits when it trebles in short order. This is the first reason why 100% equity portfolios don't work.

Why not invest in 100% stocks? ›

At some level, the benefits of potential incremental wealth gained from investing in riskier equities (versus safer bonds or Treasury bills) are not worth the downside risk, as the marginal utility of wealth declines as wealth increases and eventually approaches zero.

What is the average return if someone invested 100% in stocks? ›

Generally, bonds have a lower rate of return compared to stocks, so the average annual return would likely be around 3-5%. The average annual return for investing 100% in stocks varies depending on the type of stocks and market conditions. Historically, the average annual return for stocks has been around 8-10%.

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