A stronger for longer US dollar (2024)

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EIU report

High US policy rates, elevated geopolitical risk and investor repositioning in anticipation of a later start to US monetary easing have played a significant role in the strength of the US dollar.

EIU forecasts that the US dollar will begin to weaken gradually from late 2024 but persistent strength could prevail—raising risks for emerging markets.

Dive into EIU’s latest report to identify the trends and vulnerabilities caused by a stronger for longer US dollar.

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Topics included in this report:

A stronger for longer US dollar (1)The likely path of the US dollar under different scenarios

A stronger for longer US dollar (2)How long the global economy can withstand the above-average strength of the US dollar

A stronger for longer US dollar (3)The risk of financial crises in emerging markets, including sovereign debt defaults

A stronger for longer US dollar (4)Emerging markets’ vulnerability to high interest rates and a strong US dollar

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A stronger for longer US dollar (5)

Global economic outlook

Geopolitical risk and high interest rates are continuing to weigh on the outlook, but the global economy is showing remarkable resilience

A stronger for longer US dollar (6)

North America: regional outlook summary

Despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil, the regional economy has proven to be quite resilient. Canada’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.7% in 2024, supported by the strength of the US market. However, with a Biden-Trump rematch looming, political and policy risk remain high.

A stronger for longer US dollar (7)

Five global risks

Geopolitical volatility is increasing and further changes in the global distribution of power will lead to a more competitive, fragmented world. Meanwhile, the US presidential election has the potential to further disrupt global trade and security alliances.

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A stronger for longer US dollar (8)

Country Analysis

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Understand the political, policy and economic outlook with EIU’s award-winning forecasts, analysis and data. Our Country Analysis service examines the global dynamics that will affect your organisation, empowering you to plan for the future.

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Financial Risk

Monitoring fiscal, currency and banking sector risk

Use our market-leading data and analysis to identify and mitigate against sovereign, currency and banking sector risks posed by political and economic developments across 131 markets.

A stronger for longer US dollar (2024)
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