3 reasons countries around the world want to break up with the dollar (2024)

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  • The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades, but its dominance is fading.
  • Sanctions against Russia have spurred other countries into considering backup currencies for trade.
  • US monetary policies, the strong USD, and structural shift in the global oil trade also contribute.

3 reasons countries around the world want to break up with the dollar (1)

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3 reasons countries around the world want to break up with the dollar (2)

3 reasons countries around the world want to break up with the dollar (3)

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The dollar has been the world'sreserve currencysince World War II, but a combination of political and economic reasons is slowly chipping away at its supremacy.

Nearly 60% of international reserves are held in dollar-denominated assets, according to the International Monetary Fund. The dollar is also the most widely used currency for trade.

Now, Western-led sanctions against Russia related to its invasion of Ukraine are making other countries wary of potential consequences of crossing Washington.

Some, such as Brazil, Argentina, Bangladesh, and India, are lining up backup currencies and assetssuch as the Chinese yuan and bitcoinfor trade and payments.

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While the macro-geopolitical environment is spurring countries to seek alternative currencies, there's long been uneasiness over the dollar's outsized dominance in global trade and finance.

This de-dollarization talk has come back in waves every few years since at least the 1970s.

Here are three other reasons countries around the world are attempting to line up plans to possibly move away from a dollar-dominated world.

1. US monetary policy holds too much sway over the rest of the world

The US is the issuer of the world's reserve currency, which is also the dominant currency in international trade and payments systems.

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Consequently, it has an outsized hold on the world economy and is often overvalued, the Wilson Center think tank reported in May.

This position has afforded the US what Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the president of France from 1974 to 1981, called an "exorbitant privilege." One facet of this privilege is that the US might not run into a crisis if it is unable to pay its debt when the value of the dollar falls sharply because Washington could simply issue more money.

It also means that countries around the world have to tail US economic and monetary policies closely to avoid a spillover impact on their economies.

Some countries, including India, have said that they are sick and tired of US monetary policies holding them hostage — going as far as to say that the US has been an irresponsible issuer of the world's reserve currencies.

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A working group at the Reserve Bank of Indiais now pushing to use the Indian rupee for trade — a stance that is in with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision for the currency.

2. The strong USD is getting too expensive for emerging nations

The greenback gaining strength against most currencies around the world is making imports far more expensive for emerging nations.

In Argentina, political pressure and a decline in exports contributed to a fall in US-dollar reserves and pressured the Argentinian peso which, in turn, fueled inflation.

This has spurred Argentina to start paying for Chinese imports using yuan instead of US dollars, the nation's economy minister said on Wednesday, Reuters reported.

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"A stronger USD would weaken its role as reserve currency," economists at Allianz, an international financial-services firm, wrote in a June 29 report. "If access to USD becomes more expensive, borrowers will search for alternatives."

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been one of the most vocal proponents of setting up alternative trade-settlement currencies, going as far as to egg on Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to move away from the US dollar.

3. Global trade and oil demand is diversifying — putting the petrodollar at risk

A key reason the US dollar became the world's reserve currency is that the Gulf countries in the Middle East used the greenback to trade oil — because it was already a widely used trade currency by the time they were trading oil.

The arrangement was formalized in 1945 when the oil-giant country Saudi Arabia and the US reached a historic deal wherein Saudi Arabia would sell its oil to America only using the greenback. In return, Saudi Arabia would reinvest excess dollar reserves into US treasuries and companies. The arrangement guaranteed US security for Saudi Arabia.

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But then the US became energy independent and a net oil exporter with the rise of the shale-oil industry.

"The structural change in the oil market brought about by the shale-oil revolution can paradoxically hurt the role of the USD as the global reserve currency since oil exporters, which play a crucial role in the USD status, would need to re-orient themselves to other countries and their currencies," Allianz economists reported.

It's not just oil, either.

The relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia — which has been described as similar to"frenemies" — has also been testy over several issues in recent years, such as when then-President Donald Trump complained that Saudi Arabia wasn't paying the US a fair price for its defense, and when President Joe Biden snubbedCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the murder of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

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Such tensions, against the backdrop of the shale-energy revolution, raise the possibility that Saudi Arabia could abandon its US-denominated oil pricing one day, Sarah Miller, an editor at Energy Intelligence, an energy-information firm, wrote in November last year.

This story was originally published in July 2023.

3 reasons countries around the world want to break up with the dollar (2024)

FAQs

3 reasons countries around the world want to break up with the dollar? ›

The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades, but its dominance is fading. Sanctions against Russia have spurred other countries into considering backup currencies for trade. US monetary policies, the strong USD, and structural shift in the global oil trade also contribute.

Why are countries dumping the U.S. dollar? ›

The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades, but its dominance is fading. Sanctions against Russia have spurred other countries into considering backup currencies for trade. US monetary policies, the strong USD, and structural shift in the global oil trade also contribute.

What countries are trying to stop using the U.S. dollar? ›

This is an effort by a growing number of countries to reduce the role of the U.S. dollar in international trade. Countries like India, China, Brazil, Malaysia and Bolivia, among others, are seeking to set up trade channels using currencies other than the almighty dollar.

Why would another country want to peg its currency to the U.S. dollar? ›

Countries that peg their currency to the dollar do so because the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency and is relatively strong in the international market. As such, transactions and any international trade that takes place often happens in U.S. dollars. This helps keep a country's pegged currency stable.

Why do countries want U.S. dollars? ›

Many countries cannot borrow money or pay for foreign goods in their own currencies—since much of international trade is still done in dollars—and therefore need to hold reserves to ensure a steady supply of imports during a crisis and assure creditors that debt payments denominated in foreign currency can be made.

Why is the world turning away from the US dollar? ›

It's increasingly clear that, as non-western countries assert themselves in the world's economic arena, geopolitical divisions with the west will cause additional friction. As a result, the US dollar's role is almost certain to become more limited than it has been at any time since the end of the second world war.

What currency will replace the US dollar? ›

Some say it will be the euro; others, perhaps the Japanese yen or China's renminbi. And some call for a new world reserve currency, possibly based on the IMF's Special Drawing Right or SDR, a reserve asset. None of these candidates, however, is without flaws.

What happens to my savings if the dollar collapses? ›

In the event of a dollar collapse, diversification becomes a critical strategy for safeguarding assets. Relying solely on fiat money, such as the United States dollar, Euro, or the Japanese yen, exposes investors to the risk of inflation and depreciation, eroding the purchasing power of their savings.

What country will the US dollar go the farthest? ›

Japan continues to be a popular choice, but Vietnam and South Korea stand as solid alternatives among numerous countries in Asia with favorable exchange rates for the US dollar. Closely following in value are South American countries: Argentina and Chile are among those offering the biggest luxury bang.

Is the US dollar in danger? ›

There is no reason to expect the U.S. dollar to collapse in the near future.515 Such a change would require the entire world to change its adherence to an international monetary system that has the greenback at its center. As yet, no replacement is anywhere on the horizon.

What are the problems with dollarization? ›

Dollarization carries with it the risk of a loss of autonomy for a developing country that adopts it. When a country does not build and develop its own currency, it runs the risk of allowing its monetary policy controlled by a foreign country.

Why pegged against the U.S. dollar? ›

Many countries, though, chose to maintain a fixed policy, and today, there are still a significant number of currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar. Countries peg to ensure their goods and services remain competitive instead of being negatively impacted by the constant fluctuation of a floating currency's exchange rate.

Why would a country want to keep its currency weak? ›

A weak currency may help a country's exports gain market share when its goods are less expensive compared to goods priced in stronger currencies. The increase in sales may boost economic growth and jobs while increasing profits for companies that are conducting business in foreign markets.

What currency is worth the most? ›

The Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD), recognized as the highest-valued currency globally, symbolizes Kuwait's economic strength.

Is the U.S. dollar no longer the world currency? ›

Despite some recent announcements of countries bypassing use of the dollar in trade contracts, the U.S. dollar remains dominant as the currency of choice for international transactions.

What would most likely happen if the value of the U.S. dollar fell? ›

A falling dollar diminishes its purchasing power internationally, and that eventually translates to the consumer level. For example, a weak dollar increases the cost to import oil, causing oil prices to rise. This means a dollar buys less gas and that pinches many consumers.

What would cause the US dollar to collapse? ›

If the Federal Reserve creates money and the U.S. government assumes and monetizes debt faster than the U.S. economy grows, the future value of the currency could fall in absolute terms. Fortunately for the U.S., virtually every alternative currency is backed by similar economic policies.

Why is the dollar dropping? ›

NEW YORK/LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - The dollar retreated against major currencies on Friday as market speculation continues to swirl about the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid signs of cooling yet persistent inflation and a softening U.S. economy.

Why do countries want De-dollarization? ›

By reducing their reliance on the US dollar, countries can have more flexibility in setting interest rates and managing money supply to address their specific economic conditions and goals. Exchange rate fluctuations: De-dollarization can have significant implications for a country's exchange rate.

How does De-dollarization affect US? ›

The impact would be most acutely felt in the U.S., where de-dollarization would likely lead to a broad depreciation and underperformance of U.S. financial assets versus the rest of the world.

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