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The final weekend of September will be a big one, as the 2024 college football season hits its stride.
And we’re here at FrontPageBets to break down the top three games on the Week 5 docket, starting with the biggest one of them all: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama in a marquee SEC matchup.
Oh, Nelly.
Also on Saturday’s schedule is a a Top 25 Big Ten matchup between No. 19 Illinois and its historic start vs. No. 9 Penn State in Happy Valley, as well as No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame.
Ready? Let’s go.
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Buckle up, y’all. This one’s going to be good.
And historic.
Saturday night’s game in Bryant-Denny Stadium at Nick Saban Field in Tuscaloosa (7:30 p.m.; ESPN), will be the first time Alabama will be a home underdog in 17 years. Read that again.
The last time the Crimson Tide wasn’t favored at home was Nov. 3, 2007 against LSU – a game in which the Tigers won, 41-34.
More than 100 home games later, Georgia comes in as the favorite.
Here’s another one: If the line holds, this will be the first time Alabama hasn’t been a regular-season favorite since 2015 … when they played Georgia in Athens. (The Tide won that game, 38-10.)
Since that season, these two teams have met six more times, with four coming in the SEC title game. Alabama has won all four of those conference championship games.
The only time Georgia has won in the last six meetings was Jan. 10, 2021, in the College Football Playoff national championship game in Indianapolis.
That win was one of two national titles the Bulldogs have claimed in the last three seasons.
If they want to win a third, they’ve got to take care of the Tide in Tuscaloosa. A tough task, to be sure.
Especially with Heisman Trophy hopeful JalenMilroe at quarterback for Alabama. The junior has thrown for 590 yards and eight touchdowns so far this season with no interceptions. He’s also run for 156 yards and six scores for an offense that is averaging 49 points per game (6th in FBS).
But Milroe and Co. will be going up against one of the top defenses in the country. The Bulldogs are fourth in the nation in total defense, giving up 202 yards per game and just 6 points, which is third-best in FBS. Alabama’s defense is giving up 8.7 points per game, which is sixth in the nation.
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, who was the preseason favorite to win the Heisman, leads the Bulldogs with 680 passing yards and seven TDs with no picks.
The difference in this one, however, will be coaching. Georgia has Kirby Smart. Alabama doesn’t have Nick Saban.
That matters.
Georgia vs. Alabama Predictions for Sept. 28
While this is a huge Top 25 Big Ten matchup between Illinois and Penn State, this isn’t the first time this season either team has had a big game.
The ninth-ranked Nittany Lions (3-0) opened the season with a road win at West Virginia, 34-12.
The 19th-raneked Illini are coming off a massive overtime win at then-No. 22 Nebraska to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2011 and only the fourth time in program history.
It’s also the first time ever Illinois has beaten two ranked teams in the first four weeks of the season. The Illini beat No. 19 Kansas in Week 2, 23-17.
Can they win three in five weeks against ranked opponents, two of which would be on the road?
Let’s slow down a little bit.
Illinois, with quarterback Luke Altmyer and his 10 touchdown passes and nearly 900 yards through the air, is good. But going into Happy Valley on a Saturday night (7:30 p.m.; NBC) is a different story.
Penn State’s defense is ninth in the nation, giving up less than 230 yards per game. And quarterback Drew Allar is coming into his own this season.
It’ll be close with Penn State winning straight up, but Illinois keeping it within the 17.5 points.
Illinois vs. Penn State Predictions for Sept. 28
Notre Dame started the 2024 season ranked No. 7 in the preseason AP poll and quickly proved its ranking by beating then-No. 20 Texas A&M in College Station in Week 1.
Then Northern Illinois happened. The unranked, 28-point underdog Huskies beat the Irish in South Bend, 16-14, in one of the biggest upsets in recent major college football memory.
The Fighting Irish rebounded by stomping Purdue, 66-7, and then Miami (OH), 28-3, to enter this week’s game at home against No. 15 Louisville (3:30 p.m., Peaco*ck) with the mission of climbing back into the College Football Playoff conversation.
Problem is, the Cardinals are a good football team that can score and play defense. Louisville is 12th in FBS in scoring offense, averaging 47.3 points per game. The Cards are also 13th in scoring defense, allowing 11 points per game.
Notre Dame, which has been all over the place this season, has to find consistency. And this could be the game, with veteran quarterback Riley Leonard leading the way in a must-win game for the Irish if they hope to be around for the playoffs.
Notre Dame wins in a close one, but it’s Louisville +6.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame Predictions for Sept. 28
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Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 24-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at [email protected].
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