2023 Stock Market Outlook | Morgan Stanley (2024)

1As of Jan. 13, 2023. Source: MarketDesk Research, Fundstrat.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. Natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. Portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks. In general, equities securities’ values also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Stocks of small-and-medium-capitalization companies entail special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more established companies. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, market and liquidity risks. Illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk). Non-diversified portfolios often invest in a more limited number of issuers. As such, changes in the financial condition or market value of a single issuer may cause greater volatility.

INDEX DEFINITIONS

The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto. The Technology Select Sector Index seeks to provide an effective representation of the technology sector of the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500® Index measures performance of the large cap segment of the U.S. equities market, covering approximately 75% of the U.S. market, including 500 leading companies in the U.S. economy.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.

A separately managed account may not be appropriate for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the Strategy include a number of securities and will not necessarily track the performance of any index. Please consider the investment objectives, risks and fees of the Strategy carefully before investing. A minimum asset level is required.

For important information about the investment managers, please refer to Form ADV Part 2.

The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circ*mstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “the Firm”), and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or the investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circ*mstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is not a product of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department and should not be regarded as a research material or a recommendation.

The Firm has not authorised financial intermediaries to use and to distribute this material, unless such use and distribution is made in accordance with applicable law and regulation. Additionally, financial intermediaries are required to satisfy themselves that the information in this material is appropriate for any person to whom they provide this material in view of that person’s circ*mstances and purpose. The Firm shall not be liable for, and accepts no liability for, the use or misuse of this material by any such financial intermediary.

This material may be translated into other languages. Where such a translation is made this English version remains definitive. If there are any discrepancies between the English version and any version of this material in another language, the English version shall prevail.

The whole or any part of this material may not be directly or indirectly reproduced, copied, modified, used to create a derivative work, performed, displayed, published, posted, licensed, framed, distributed or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without the Firm’s express written consent. This material may not be linked to unless such hyperlink is for personal and non-commercial use. All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright and other applicable law.

This material is only intended for and will only be distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations.

MSIM, the asset management division of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and its affiliates have arrangements in place to market each other’s products and services. Each MSIM affiliate is regulated as appropriate in the jurisdiction it operates.MSIM’s affiliates are:Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited, Eaton Vance Advisers International Ltd, Calvert Research and Management, Eaton Vance Management, Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC, and Atlanta Capital Management LLC.

This material has been issued by any one or more of the following entities:

EMEA

This material is for Professional Clients/Accredited Investors only.

In the EU, MSIM and Eaton Vance materials are issued by MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited (“FMIL”). FMIL is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and is incorporated in Ireland as a private company limited by shares with company registration number 616661 and has its registered address at The Observatory, 7-11 Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, D02 VC42, Ireland.

Outside the EU, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (MSIM Ltd) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 1981121. Registered Office: 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA.

In Switzerland, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, London (Zurich Branch) Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht ("FINMA"). Registered Office: Beethovenstrasse 33, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Outside the US and EU, Eaton Vance materials are issued by Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited (“EVMI”) 125 Old Broad Street, London, EC2N 1AR, UK, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Italy: MSIM FMIL (Milan Branch), (Sede Secondaria di Milano) Palazzo Serbelloni Corso Venezia, 16 20121 Milano, Italy. The Netherlands: MSIM FMIL (Amsterdam Branch), Rembrandt Tower, 11th Floor Amstelplein 1 1096HA, Netherlands. France: MSIM FMIL (Paris Branch), 61 rue de Monceau 75008 Paris, France. Spain: MSIM FMIL (Madrid Branch), Calle Serrano 55, 28006, Madrid, Spain. Germany: MSIM FMIL Frankfurt Branch, Große Gallusstraße 18, 60312 Frankfurt am Main, Germany (Gattung: Zweigniederlassung (FDI) gem. § 53b KWG). Denmark: MSIM FMIL (Copenhagen Branch), Gorrissen Federspiel, Axel Towers, Axeltorv2, 1609 Copenhagen V, Denmark.

MIDDLE EAST

Dubai: MSIM Ltd (Representative Office, Unit Precinct 3-7th Floor-Unit 701 and 702, Level 7, Gate Precinct Building 3, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, 506501, United Arab Emirates. Telephone: +97 (0)14 709 7158). This document is distributed in the Dubai International Financial Centre by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (Representative Office), an entity regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). It is intended for use by professional clients and market counterparties only. This document is not intended for distribution to retail clients, and retail clients should not act upon the information contained in this document.

This document relates to a financial product which is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the DFSA. The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying any documents in connection with this financial product. Accordingly, the DFSA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document, and has no responsibility for it. The financial product to which this document relates may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on its resale or transfer. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on the financial product. If you do not understand the contents of this document, you should consult an authorised financial adviser.

U.S.

NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A DEPOSIT

Canada

For use only with “Permitted Clients” under Canadian Law and may not be used with the general public. This presentation is communicated in Canada by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. (“MSIM”), which conducts its activities in Canada pursuant to the international adviser exemption and International Investment Fund Manager Exemption. This presentation does not constitute an offer to provide investment advisory available. MSIM may only advise separately managed accounts of “Permitted Clients” and may only manage accounts which invest in non-Canadian issuers. “Permitted clients” as defined under Canadian National Instrument 31-103 generally include Canadian financial institutions or individuals with $5 million (CAD) in financial assets and entities with at least $25 million (CAD) in net assets. Permitted Clients may only invest in a separately managed account referenced in this presentation by entering into an investment management agreement with MSIM, of which this presentation is not a part. Materials which describe the investment expertise, strategies and/or other aspects of MSIM-managed separately managed accounts may be provided to you upon request for your consideration of the available investment advisory services offered by MSIM. MSIM and certain of its affiliates may serve as the portfolio manager to separately managed accounts described in this presentation and may be entitled to receive fees in connection therewith.

Latin America (Brazil, Chile Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay)

This material is for use with an institutional investor or a qualified investor only. All information contained herein is confidential and is for the exclusive use and review of the intended addressee, and may not be passed on to any third party. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a public offering, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell for any product, service, security and/or strategy. A decision to invest should only be made after reading the strategy documentation and conducting in-depth and independent due diligence.

ASIA PACIFIC

Hong Kong: This material is disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited for use in Hong Kong and shall only be made available to “professional investors” as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 571). The contents of this material have not been reviewed nor approved by any regulatory authority including the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Accordingly, save where an exemption is available under the relevant law, this material shall not be issued, circulated, distributed, directed at, or made available to, the public in Hong Kong. Singapore: This material is disseminated by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company and should not be considered to be the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to the public or any member of the public in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor under section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“SFA”); (ii) to a “relevant person” (which includes an accredited investor) pursuant to section 305 of the SFA, and such distribution is in accordance with the conditions specified in section 305 of the SFA; or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA. This publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Australia: This material is provided by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 22122040037, AFSL No. 314182 and its affiliates and does not constitute an offer of interests. Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Limited arranges for MSIM affiliates to provide financial services to Australian wholesale clients. Interests will only be offered in circ*mstances under which no disclosure is required under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (the “Corporations Act”). Any offer of interests will not purport to be an offer of interests in circ*mstances under which disclosure is required under the Corporations Act and will only be made to persons who qualify as a “wholesale client” (as defined in the Corporations Act). This material will not be lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

Japan

For professional investors, this material is circulated or distributed for informational purposes only. For those who are not professional investors, this material is provided in relation to Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Japan) Co., Ltd. (“MSIMJ”)’s business with respect to discretionary investment management agreements (“IMA”) and investment advisory agreements (“IAA”). This is not for the purpose of a recommendation or solicitation of transactions or offers any particular financial instruments. Under an IMA, with respect to management of assets of a client, the client prescribes basic management policies in advance and commissions MSIMJ to make all investment decisions based on an analysis of the value, etc. of the securities, and MSIMJ accepts such commission. The client shall delegate to MSIMJ the authorities necessary for making investment. MSIMJ exercises the delegated authorities based on investment decisions of MSIMJ, and the client shall not make individual instructions. All investment profits and losses belong to the clients; principal is not guaranteed. Please consider the investment objectives and nature of risks before investing. As an investment advisory fee for an IAA or an IMA, the amount of assets subject to the contract multiplied by a certain rate (the upper limit is 2.20% per annum (including tax)) shall be incurred in proportion to the contract period. For some strategies, a contingency fee may be incurred in addition to the fee mentioned above. Indirect charges also may be incurred, such as brokerage commissions for incorporated securities. Since these charges and expenses are different depending on a contract and other factors, MSIMJ cannot present the rates, upper limits, etc. in advance. All clients should read the Documents Provided Prior to the Conclusion of a Contract carefully before executing an agreement. This material is disseminated in Japan by MSIMJ, Registered No. 410 (Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firms)), Membership: the Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

CRC: 5442567

EXP. DATE: 02/28/2024

2023 Stock Market Outlook | Morgan Stanley (2024)

FAQs

2023 Stock Market Outlook | Morgan Stanley? ›

Earnings Recession in 2023 to Transition to Strong Recovery in 2024. Morgan Stanley Research strategists think U.S. corporate earnings could decline 16% in 2023 but stage a comeback in 2024 and 2025.

What is the market outlook for Morgan Stanley in 2024? ›

Morgan Stanley forecasts 6.8% growth in 2024, and 6.5% next year, and thinks inflation will stay within policymakers' comfort zone. The stronger global growth we are predicting benefits India, leading to higher income from exports and supporting domestic capital spending.

What will the stock market return in 2023? ›

The U.S. stock market performed extremely well in 2023 and for the 5-year period ended December 31, 2023. Stock market performance in 2023 was a reflection of the relatively strong U.S. economy. The S&P 500 index increased 24.31 percent, more than twice the long-run average return on U.S. large-cap stocks.

What is the forecast for the stock market in 2024? ›

When the year began, many analysts saw stock gains slowing from 2023's strong pace, with the consensus seeing the S&P 500 gaining only 8% to 9% for all of 2024. Meanwhile, the IBD Mutual Fund Index has risen nearly 13%.

What is the investing outlook for 2023? ›

We expect this year to be less turbulent for markets, with inflation moderating and major central banks approaching the end of their tightening cycles. Yet there is still a fog of uncertainty facing investors. Will the US enter a recession or avoid it?

What is the stock forecast for Morgan Stanley? ›

Based on short-term price targets offered by 21 analysts, the average price target for Morgan Stanley comes to $105.39. The forecasts range from a low of $79.15 to a high of $121.00. The average price target represents an increase of 3.57% from the last closing price of $101.76.

What is the stock market prediction for 2025? ›

The stock market will drop 32% in 2025 as the Fed fails to save the economy from a recession, research firm says. The S&P 500 will plunge 32% in 2025 as a recession finally hits the US economy, BCA Research predicts.

Should I pull my money out of the stock market? ›

"As long as you are in a long-term portfolio, you shouldn't worry." Moving into cash "is never a good investment," added PNC's Agati. That's especially the case when the Fed is widely expected to cut rates as early as September, which will reduce the returns for savings accounts and money market funds.

What is the expected return on the market in 2023? ›

Fixed income and equity performance significantly improved in 2023 versus 2022. Using the Bloomberg US Treasury Index as the proxy, fixed income returns were 4.05% and equity returns were 26.29% in 2023, compared with -12.46% and -18.11%, respectively, in 2022 (Exhibits 5 & 6).

Was 2023 a good year for stocks? ›

The final quarterly and annual numbers for 2023 were exceptionally good. They translate into substantial annual gains for millions of investors who hold stocks and bonds indirectly, through mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and trusts, often in workplace retirement accounts.

What is the financial market outlook for 2024? ›

Key takeaways. Global core inflation is expected to remain at close to 3% in 2024, limiting the scope for policy easing. In U.S. equities, momentum crowding and stock market concentration are now at multi-decade extremes.

What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years? ›

Optimistic: 6%-7% per year.

If you assume margins and P/E multiples will remain at their current high level, and expect sales and buybacks to grow at their historical rates, then you can anticipate making about 6% in returns per year over the next decade.

What is the best thing to invest in in 2024? ›

8 asset class investment ideas for 2024
  • Stocks.
  • Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.
  • Bonds.
  • Cash.
  • Roth IRAs.
  • Alternative investments.
  • Real estate.
  • Work income.
Jun 24, 2024

Which stock will boom in 2023? ›

High growth stocks-2023
S.No.NameROCE %
2.Monarch Networth51.53
3.Ganesh Housing45.22
4.Kothari Petroche41.32
5.Emkay Taps & Cut38.99
16 more rows

What is the best asset to invest in 2023? ›

Major Asset Class Returns in 2023
RankIndexAsset Class
1Nikkei 225Japanese Equities
2S&P 500U.S. Large Caps
3STOXX 50European Equities
4S&P SmallCap 600U.S. Small Caps
8 more rows
Jan 4, 2024

What stocks have dropped the most in 2023? ›

The Worst-Performing Stocks of 2023
  • Lumen Technologies Inc Ordinary Shares. (LUMN)
  • Eversource Energy. (ES)
  • SunPower Corp. (SPWR)
  • SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)
  • Moderna Inc. (MRNA)
Jan 3, 2024

What is the equity market outlook for 2024? ›

Despite a decline in YoY earnings (-24.42%), the sector is poised for growth due to the increasing push for renewable energy and infrastructure development. The PE ratio of 20.94 suggests investor optimism, and the sector may benefit from government incentives and investments in green energy projects.

What is the financial outlook for 2024? ›

Economic growth is projected to slow from 3.1 percent in calendar year 2023 to 2.0 percent in 2024 amid higher unemployment and slightly lower inflation. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to respond by reducing interest rates, starting in early 2025.

How financially stable is Morgan Stanley? ›

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Analysts' consensus EPS estimate is $1.69 on revenue of $14.4 billion, according to FactSet. Overall, Morgan Stanley is resoundingly stable. During last quarter's conference call, Pick cited geopolitical concerns and a weakening U.S. economy as Morgan Stanley's two biggest risks.

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