The surface analysis shows high pressure providing the scorching weather today…. the cold front in the Great Lakes will move thru our neck of the woods tomorrow / Thursday with the severe weather threat…. high pressure takes over again with more heat & humidity into & thru the weekend….
Two (2) themes to Thursday…. heat & severe weather…. partly sunny, hot, humid…. could be 2 waves of showers / t-storms – strong to severe…. as the Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of the viewing area with the Slight Risk for Severe Weather….
forecast high temperatures will range from the mid & upper 70s in the Adirondacks to the low & mid 90s around the Capital Region points south….
The Futurecast shows partly sunny skies for Friday…. “not as” hot…. “not as” humid…. forecast high temperatures will range from the upper 70s in the Adirondacks to the lower 90s around the Capital Region points south….
However, there have been two occurrences (April 7, 2006, and April 14, 2012) of a high risk being issued for Day 2 of the outlook period (with the event occurring the following day). Under the official protocol, a high risk cannot be issued for Day 3 of the outlook period.
Minimum Action: Preparations should be made for a low likelihood (or a 5 to 14% probability) of tornadoes; scattered tornadoes of F0 to F1 intensity possible. Potential Impact: The potential for scattered locations to experience minor to moderate tornado damage (see below).
2-SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity. 3-ENH (orange) - Enhanced risk - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
It's been a record-long 10 years since the last EF5 tornado happened in the U.S. And while that statistic sounds notable, it doesn't tell the whole story. May 20, 2013 was a horrifying day. That afternoon, a violent tornado raked through central Oklahoma from Newcastle to Moore to the southern side of Oklahoma City.
Number 3 is a strong storm with one to two inches of rain and could include widespread hazardous roads, minor flooding, and numerous power outages. Number 4 is a major storm with two to three inches of rain, moderate flooding, widespread mudslides, and widespread power outages all likely. Number 5 is a severe storm.
But while the most violent and rare EF-5 tornado can level and blow away almost any house, most tornadoes are much weaker and can be survived using some safety precautions – chiefly, taking advantage of a basem*nt if your home happens to have one.
The old scale lists an F5 tornado as wind speeds of 261–318 mph (420–512 km/h), while the new scale lists an EF5 as a tornado with winds above 200 mph (322 km/h), found to be sufficient to cause the damage previously ascribed to the F5 range of wind speeds.
The states with the highest number of F5 and EF5 rated tornadoes since data was available in 1950 are Alabama and Oklahoma, each with seven tornadoes. Iowa, Kansas, and Texas each are tied for second-most with six. The state with the highest number of F5 and EF5 tornadoes per square mile, however, was Iowa.
On average each year, those tornadoes damage an area of about a half-square mile typically with winds below 100 mph. There is roughly 6000 square miles in our area. This means your average chance to being hit by a twister on any given year are around 1 in 12,000. But that's your chance for any tornado.
Normally, homes can sustain considerable damage from tornadoes with an EF2 or higher rating. An EF3 tornado can cause catastrophic damage, including removing roofs and walls, whereas an EF2 tornado can significantly damage a house's roof and walls.
The color of the sky may change to a dark greenish color. A strange quiet occurring within or shortly after a thunderstorm. A loud roar that sounds similar to a freight train. An approaching cloud of debris, especially at ground level.
An approaching cloud of debris especially at ground level, even if a funnel is not visible; A loud roar - similar to a freight train - or a strange quiet occurring within or shortly after a thunderstorm. A change in the color of the sky. Debris dropping from the sky.
Day or night - Loud, continuous roar or rumble, which doesn't fade in a few seconds like thunder. Night - Small, bright, blue-green to white flashes at ground level near a thunderstorm (as opposed to silvery lightning up in the clouds).
From 2000 through 2021, the SPC issued a Level 5 high-risk forecast an average of two to three days each year. The last two high-risk forecasts were issued on March 17 and March 25, 2021, in the Deep South.
A Derecho is a very long lived and damaging thunderstorm. A storm is classified as a derecho if wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles and has wind gusts of at least 58 mph or greater along most of the length of the storm's path. For more on derechos visit the Storm Prediction Center's derecho page.
Thus, an Enhanced Risk means a widespread concentration of low-to-moderate intensity severe thunderstorms. Threats to areas in an Enhanced Risk typically include: The potential for tornadoes. Frequent lightning. Damaging winds in excess of 58 mph, and possibly in excess of 70 mph.
Broadcast meteorologists and meteorologists working at the National Weather Service commonly interpret these predictions and inform the public. There are five risk categories: marginal, severe, enhanced, moderate, and high.
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